#15 Missouri Tigers (17-4, 6-2 SEC) at #4 Tennessee Volunteers (18-4, 5-4 SEC), 6pm Wednesday
Spread: Tennessee -9
Total: 133.5
KenPom projection: Tennessee 71, Missouri 62
The game of the night in college basketball on Wednesday takes place in Knoxville with the #4 Tennessee Volunteers hosting the #15 Mizzou Tigers.
Mizzou’s offense will face its stiffest test of the season, as Tennessee comes into this game as the #1 defensive team in the nation according to KenPom. In their most recent game, the Vols allowed only 44 points to Florida and also recently held Auburn to just 53 points. Overall, they give up only 58 points per game for the season.
But make no mistake - Missouri should not be scared of this Tennessee team.
The Tigers have already faced 5 of the top 14 defensive teams in the country according to KenPom and were able to put up plenty of points in those games:
Vs Kansas (5th ranked defense) - 76 points
Vs Illinois (11th ranked defense) - 77 points
At Auburn (14th ranked defense) - 68 points
At Florida (10th ranked defense) - 83 points
Vs Ole Miss (12th ranked defense) - 83 points
That’s an average of 77 points scored in those games with a 3-2 record straight up and a 5-0 record against the spread.
Tennessee may be a level above all of those teams defensively, but Mizzou may only need to score in the low 60’s to cover the number because the Vols are rather pedestrian on offense. Here are their offensive ranks in the 16-team SEC:
Points per game: 15th
Field goal percentage: 14th
3-point field goal percentage: 10th
Assuming Tennessee has a normal offensive game and not a hot-shooting night, the Tigers should be right in this game the entire way provided they do what they do as well as any team in the country - get to the free throw line.
The Vols want you to take 3’s because they defend them better than anyone in the nation with their opponents hitting just 26% from behind the arc. And all of those 3-point attempts have resulted in Tennessee allowing the fewest free throw attempts in the SEC.
The Tigers must not fall into the trap of taking too many contested 3-point attempts. They need to enforce their will by getting to the free throw line, and if they can get close to their season average for free throw attempts, Mizzou should cover the number. And if Caleb Grill goes into Steph Curry mode again, they could win it outright.
I’m not sure they pull the upset, but I think the Tigers will continue their undefeated ATS run against elite defensive teams.
Lean: Mizzou +9