Missouri Tigers (17-5, 6-3 SEC) vs Texas A&M Aggies (17-5, 6-3 SEC), 2:30pm Saturday
Spread: Missouri -2.5
Total: 144.5
KenPom projection: Missouri 74, Texas A&M 71
We have a Top 15 showdown in Columbia on Saturday when the #15 Missouri Tigers welcome the #10 Texas A&M Aggies to Mizzou Arena.
The Tigers are coming off an 85-81 loss at #4 Tennessee on Wednesday that saw the Volunteers shoot 50% from the field and 67% from three-point range. If it wasn’t for an outlier shooting performance from Tennessee, Mizzou would have come back home with their third win over a top-five team this season.
It is highly unlikely the Tigers will encounter another hot-shooting game from their opponent on Saturday. Check out where Texas A&M ranks among the 364 teams in Division One:
Field goal percentage: 42.5% - 297th in the country
Three-point percentage: 31.5% - 305th in the country
Free throw percentage: 68.5% - 293rd in the country
The Aggies’ best offense is to miss a shot and grab an offensive board. Texas A&M ranks second in the country in offensive rebounds, and they’re in the top-five in the nation in rebounding margin overall.
The Tigers rank second in SEC play (only behind the Aggies) in offensive rebounding percentage against, meaning they’ve done a nice job in conference play of protecting the glass.
Texas A&M has the #6 defense in the country according to KenPom, but that doesn’t scare me because Missouri has proven they can score against elite defenses. The Tigers have already played six of the top 16 defenses in the nation according to KenPom, and they have averaged 78 points scored in those games.
As long as Mizzou doesn’t get killed on the offensive boards, I really like them to win and cover. I think there’s a decent chance they win this one by double digits.
Pick: Missouri -2.5
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Friday on the Sports Hub STL YouTube channel. Click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams.