SLU Billikens (14-10, 7-4 Atlantic 10) vs George Mason Patriots (19-5, 10-1 Atlantic 10), 7pm Tuesday
Spread: SLU -1.5
Total: 130.5
KenPom projection: George Mason 65, SLU 64
The Saint Louis University Billikens will try to cool off one of the hottest teams in the country when they host George Mason on Tuesday night.
The Patriots come into the game riding a nine-game winning streak, which is the sixth longest active streak in the nation. The run has propelled them to first place in the Atlantic 10, with SLU still in third place after falling to Saint Joseph’s last Friday, 76-63.
This feels like bad timing for the Billikens to be facing a George Mason team that has one of the best defenses in the country. Here are the Patriots’ national ranks:
Points per game allowed: 61.8 (9th)
Field goal percentage allowed: 36.9% (3rd)
Three-point percentage allowed: 28.9% (12th)
There are question marks surrounding all three of SLU’s best players heading into this game.
Gibson Jimerson left the Saint Joseph’s game with an ankle injury and is expected to be a game-time decision on Tuesday. Even if Jimerson plays, it’s hard to imagine he’ll be at peak effectiveness.
Robbie Avila’s woes continue, as he’s now scored a total of just 19 points over his last three games and has committed a total of 20 turnovers over his last four games.
And Isaiah Swope is in a shooting slump that has seen him go 27-for-80 (33.7%) from the field over his last seven games.
I think we are starting to see the effects that come from playing with a thin rotation like SLU does. This looks like a tired team to me. If not for the mini-miracle at Massachusetts, the Bills would be on a three-game skid and losers of four of their last five. They’ve also been getting killed on the offensive glass over the last five games, which is a sign of fatigue in my view. During that stretch, the Billikens have surrendered 71 offensive rebounds while grabbing only 33 of their own misses.
I’ve loved playing the under in SLU games this season. The under has gone 18-4 in the Bills’ 22 games against Division One opponents, but I feel like this total is set properly.
I think the best play for this game is riding a George Mason team that has done nothing but win for over a month now, including an eight-point victory at Dayton during that stretch. I believe the Patriots should be favored in this game - especially considering Jimerson’s health situation.
Pick: George Mason ML +105
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Friday on the Sports Hub STL YouTube channel. Click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams.