SLU Billikens (14-11, 7-5 Atlantic 10) at Loyola Chicago Ramblers (15-9, 6-5 Atlantic 10), 6pm Friday
Spread: Loyola -2.5
Total: 140.5
KenPom projection: Loyola 72, SLU 69
The Saint Louis University Billikens look to snap out of their recent funk when they travel to face Loyola Chicago on Friday night.
The Billikens dropped a heartbreaker on Tuesday to George Mason 76-74 in overtime, marking their fourth loss in the last six games. Now they face a team that looks very similar to them when you look at the numbers.
Separated by just a half game in the Atlantic 10 standings, both these teams average 73 points per game. Defensively, the Ramblers give up 68 points per game, while the Billikens allow 69 points per game. Both clubs are also poor from the free throw line, with SLU at 67% and Loyola at 66%.
With these teams so close, the line is right with Loyola a slight favorite with the home court edge. But this game just screams under to me.
The under is now 18-5 in SLU games against Division One opponents this season. Meanwhile Loyola has seen five of its last six games go under, with the under cashing by an average of 14 points in those five wins. The only game to go over during that stretch did so by just a half point in regulation before the game went to overtime.
I think there’s a great chance this game ends in the 60’s. The Billikens have not scored more than 70 points in regulation in seven of their last nine games. And the Ramblers have not put up more than 70 points in regulation in six of their last seven contests. Loyola has even scored in the 50’s in three of its last five games.
I also love that both teams are coming off overtime games on Tuesday, so you could have some tired legs on Friday - especially for the Billikens. SLU’s bench played a total of only 15 minutes on Tuesday and generated zero points on zero shot attempts… yikes.
Taking all these factors into account, the under is an automatic bet for me.
Pick: Under 140.5
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Friday on the Sports Hub STL YouTube channel. Click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams.