The St. Louis Cardinals open full-squad workouts this week as they prepare to kick off their Grapefruit League schedule on Saturday against the Miami Marlins.
If you’re betting on spring training games, you are a true degenerate and I wish you luck.
But when looking at betting the Cardinals’ win total for the 2025 season, fascination abounds.
There is a pretty significant disparity on the two biggest sportsbooks when it comes to the odds listed for the Redbirds’ season win total.
DraftKings: 77.5 wins (over -115, under -105)
FanDuel: 75.5 wins (over -128, under +104)
The Cardinals finished last season 83-79. And after much talk about the team going through a “reset” in 2025, it turns out the roster doesn’t look that much different than it did at the end of last season.
Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras both elected to exercise their no-trade clauses, which I imagine the Cardinals were hoping they would not do.
The Redbirds also brought back Ryan Helsley, which I don’t agree with. If they really wanted to go through a reset, cashing in on a closer who is at peak value would seem to be an ideal move.
And most notably after a drama-filled offseason of “will they or won’t they”, the Cardinals were unable to finalize a trade involving Nolan Arenado, meaning the 10-time Gold Glover is expected to be their starting third baseman in 2025.
With Gray, Contreras, Helsley, and Arenado all back with the club, those are four of their best players that are going to help them get to at least 75.5 wins.
The only four players of note from last season that are gone are Paul Goldschmidt, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, and Andrew Kittredge. When you combine their WAR numbers, those four players combined for a total of 4.0 wins in 2024.
The Cardinals finished with 83 wins last season. Take away four, and that gets you to 79. I also have to think that young players like Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman will take a step forward in 2025.
So as of today, I would not only lean over 75.5 wins on FanDuel, but I would lean over 77.5 wins on DraftKings.
If you like the under, I would bet the under 77.5 on DraftKings now because I think that’s the highest that number is going to be before the season opens. If one of MLB’s elite teams has their third baseman go down with an injury this spring and the Cardinals can trade Arenado because of it, that will surely decrease the Cards’ projected win total. Arenado’s WAR last season was 2.5, so I imagine the oddsmakers would bring their win total down by two or three games.
There’s a perception with many Cardinals fans that this team is going to be a bottom-feeder, but I just don’t see that being the case. I don’t think this is a contending club that is going to be in the mix for the NL Central title. But over 75.5 wins? Sign me up.
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Friday on the Sports Hub STL YouTube channel. Click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams.