Game Information
St. Louis Cardinals (0-0) vs Minnesota Twins (0-0)
Time: 3:15pm CDT Thursday
How to watch: FanDuel Sports Network
Probable pitchers: Sonny Gray (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs Pablo Lopez (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
DraftKings Odds
Moneyline: Cardinals -110, Twins -110
Total: 7.5 (over -105, under -115)
Happy Opening Day
It’s one of the greatest days on the local sports calendar on Thursday as the St. Louis Cardinals play their home opener against the Minnesota Twins.
One of the themes to consider when betting the season opener - do spring training stats matter? I think in some cases yes, but in some cases no. Let’s dive in.
Concerns With Gray
As outlined by Lynn Worthy in his column on STLToday.com, there are noteworthy concerns with Sonny Gray heading into Thursday’s game. Gray was placed on the injured list towards the end of last season with right forearm flexor tendinitis, which caused a delay in beginning his offseason throwing program. And the spring training results were not encouraging.
Gray surrendered 20 earned runs in 14.1 innings pitched for a 12.56 ERA and a 2.02 WHIP. But even more concerning than the results was a significant decrease in velocity. And reading in between the tea leaves with Gray’s comments, I’m not confident he’s going to start the season on top of his game.
Lopez Lights Out In Season Openers
Twins starter Pablo Lopez also had a poor spring training from a stats perspective with a 6.62 ERA over 17.2 innings pitched. But he ended his spring looking terrific in his final tuneup with 3 shutout innings with just 2 hits allowed and 4 strikeouts.
Lopez also has a track record of being fantastic out of the gate. He has had 7 seasons in the big leagues, and if you look at his first start of each of those seasons, here are his combined numbers:
38.2 innings pitched
24 hits
7 earned runs
7 walks
44 strikeouts
1.63 ERA
0.80 WHIP
My Pick
I love the Cardinals more than any other team in this world, but you have to separate your heart from your brain when it comes to sports gambling. And I frankly do not trust Gray right now with his diminished velocity, and Lopez has earned my trust over the years.
I’m a big fan of first five inning bets in baseball because you can eliminate bullpens from the equation and just focus on the starting pitching matchup. And with both teams priced evenly at -115 in the first five innings, I think there is a clear edge taking the Twins on the moneyline in the first five.
If you’re not familiar with a first five innings moneyline bet in baseball, that means this bet is a push if the game is tied after five innings.
Pick: Twins first five innings moneyline at -115 on DraftKings (take up to -125)
Eric Sontag hosts Domesticated Gamblers every Friday on the Sports Hub STL YouTube channel. Click here for his daily picks on all of our St. Louis area sports teams. Disclaimer