Greetings. This will be a friendly review of the Cardinals’ season-opening sweep of the Twins at Busch Stadium. And why not? We were treated to an all-around beautiful show of ball in the first three games.
Observations:
— The team’s performance was thorough, impressive, and visually striking. No doubt about it, this was an energetic and enthusiastic baseball team that competed with a zestful vitality that was frequently missing in 2024. The Cardinals looked like a happy team — a team that loved playing ball, a team that had locked-in focus on the mound, in the batter’s box, and in the field.
— The Cardinals have a different team vibe. Maybe it’s because young hitters have to take ownership of the offense – and run with it. In 2023 and 2024, we saw young Cardinal hitters defer to veterans Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, stay in the shadows, and never allow their true personalities to emerge and flow. It was an uptight team, which happens when two elders (Goldy and ‘Nado) are pressing and stressing because of their frustration as hitters. I think we’re seeing a Lars Nootbaar Takeover. Nootbaar and Arenado are good friends and offseason workout partners in SoCal, and I think we can see signs of Arenado loosening up because of Noot’s influence — so far, anyway. But the change in vibe is obvious.
— The quality of the at-bats was consistently tough-minded, smart, and good. The baseball was clean and sharp. An alert defense already saved runs. The St. Louis pitchers didn’t fool around, going right after hitters instead of nibbling and issuing walks. The Cardinals faced 101 hitters during the three games and walked only five Twins.
— Overall, Cards pitchers worked to a 2.00 ERA, third best in the National League for the first menu of games. Starters Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, and Andre Pallante pitched well, and the bullpen was money.
— The Cardinals averaged 6.3 runs per game, shaped a strong .909 team OPS, and delivered under pressure. A sensible plate approach had a lot to do with that, and I’ll explain later in the review.
— After a dull offseason by the front office, manager Oli Marmol, the coaches, and the players took it upon themselves to take charge of the season and go with it. The players realized that 2025 was up to them, and it was important to rise above the front-office torpor. And this team seems determined to become a surprise. Heck, they’re the ones arranging the surprise party. This was an appealing baseball team in the first three games of the season.
— There’s going to be competition for at-bats, and that’s a meaningful change from last season. The Cardinals were short on options last season when hitters crashed or faded. That’s not the case so far this season. Marmol will be faced with a choice to start Burleson or Gorman on a lot of days — and that’s just one example. And if Pedro Pages is improved offensively, he could wind up with more plate appearances than Ivan Herrera.
— It’s early … blah, blah, blah. Whatever. A team can only win the game in front of them, and then do it again as much as possible over 162 games. A vibrant start can matter. Sweeping the first home series of the season was a nice switch from a disturbing pattern in 2024. Last season, the Cardinals dropped four of their first six series at Busch, compiling a 6-11 record in those games — and the early stumbles made it more challenging to catch up and chase down enough teams to make the playoffs. It’s never too early to win.
THREE STARS OF THE 3-0 SERIES: Nootbaar, Arenado, and Victor Scott II
Nootbaar set the tone immediately in his first at-bat of the season, stroking a leadoff single then coming around to score to give the home team a 1-0 lead. In his second time up, he cranked a two-run homer. Nootbaar was an ideal leadoff man in the first three games, going 4 for 10 (.400) with three walks for a .571 onbase percentage. During the series, Nootbaar led the Cardinals with four RBIs and was tied with Arenado for the team lead in runs scored (3).
Arenado went 5 for 11 (.455), homered, and ripped two doubles. He also had two walks in the series, which helped him craft a .538 onbase percentage. His three extra-base hits boomed for a .909 slug. His colossal home run and emotional curtain call in Game 1 was the top individual moment of the first series.
Victor Scott II, doing his “youngry” thing. Sure, there were other candidates, but it was a lot of fun watching Scott put his speed into action, and he made the best defensive play in the series. His three-run homer Sunday was a validation of his extensive time and dedicated work in the offseason project to increase his power.
ARENADO’S QUICKER BAT: As I said repeatedly during the offseason, Arenado had his best stretch of the 2024 season during a time when his bat speed reached the highest mph readings. And I repeatedly noted that Arenado dedicated his offseason to improving his hand speed — another reason why I said I would not be surprised to see him have a reasonable bounce-back season in 2025.
Well, the first evidence samples are in. In the three wins over the Twins, Arenado averaged 73 mph on his swings; that’s good enough to put him in the top 29 percent of all MLB hitters. Last season, Arenado had an average bat speed of 70.7 mph, and that put him among the bottom 28 percent of hitters — and the drag in his bat was responsible for career lows in home runs (16) and slugging percentage (.394).
Arenado’s opening-day homer was launched with a bat speed of 75.5 mph. His two doubles averaged 77.2 mph. He had two other batted balls that came on mph readings of at least 75.2 mph.
Here’s why bat speed matters: every mph equates to an additional seven feet of air travel. By quickening his hands and bat speed, Arenado is getting more distance on his airborne drives. If he keeps going, this should make a significant difference.
We’ve seen that already. Last season, Arenado had a 31.6 percent hard-hit rate and a 3.2 percent barrel rate. Against the Twins, his hard-hit rate was 44%, and his barrel rate jumped to 11.2 percent. And after having an average exit velocity of 86.3 mph in 2024, his average velo was just under 89 mph against the Twins.
WHAT STAN “THE MAN” MUSIAL SAID: “The thing about hitting is this: You have to know the strike zone. That's the most important thing. Hit strikes and put the bat on the ball.”
It’s way too early to issue meaningful declarations, but the Cardinals seem to be more focused on working the strike zone to their favor.
I could give you a lot of numbers here, but I’ll sum it up in one paragraph, and add a couple of stats at the end.
Yep. It’s early. But we can only analyze the games that have been played. The Redbirds’ called-strike rate is down from last season, and their rate of chasing pitches out of the strike zone (25.3%) is the eighth lowest in the majors so far. They have the 10th-lowest percentage of swinging at the first pitch.
Under new batting coach Brant Brown, the St. Louis hitters are being more selective, and they’re making pitchers work harder. After three games, the Cardinals have the third-highest rate in the majors in pitches seen per plate appearance (4.17). Another difference from last year: the Redbirds are swinging at a higher percentage of strikes.
Here’s why this matters:
When putting the ball in fair territory on pitches in the strike zone, the Cardinals batted .369 with a .615 slugging percentage against the Twins. Their harvest on strike-zone pitches included three homers and three doubles. Needless to say, those numbers were much worse when the Cards hacked at pitches out of the strike zone.
“It’s fun to watch, and I continue to say it, but every at-bat is a damn dogfight,” Marmol said after Sunday’s 9-2 stomping. “I mean, every pitch is important and every inning is a game within a game. We score a couple of runs and the next inning we’re starting from scratch and it’s, ‘Let’s get the first guy on!’ It’s contagious.”
We’ll take another look at this next week.
FINE YOUNG MEN: In the barrage of offense against Twins pitchers, the Cardinals’ younger hitters went on the attack. I’m speaking of hitters that are 26 or younger: Scott II, Burleson, Jordan Walker, Herrera, Gorman, Masyn Winn, and Pages. Winn had a quiet series (0 for 9), but the others stepped up.
St. Louis players no older than 26 collectively batted .327 with a .407 onbase percentage and .577 slugging percentage in the series. This group hit three of the Cards’ five home runs, combined for 11 of the total 19 RBIs, and scored 11 of the 19 runs. The Cardinals swiped three bases against the Twins — all by Scott.
The 11 RBIs are the most in the majors by a team’s collection of hitters age 26 or younger. In addition, the younger birds had six hits — including home runs by Scott, Gorman, and Pages — and 10 RBIs when getting it done with runners in scoring position.
Yes, all of these dudes have been in the majors for a while — some more than others. But just about every one of these guys is still trying to establish himself as a quality big-league hitter.
RISP, RSVP: The Cardinals hit .229 with runners in scoring position last season, the worst part of an offense that ranked 12th among National League teams in runs. This area certainly had to improve in 2025, and the Cardinals responded immediately in the opening series by hitting .323 in RISP situations. Three of the hits were home runs — by Nootbaar, Scott II, and Pages. Four of their 10 hits with RISP went for extra bases. This is how it should be done.
Among MLB teams that have played just three games so far, STL’s 17 RBIs with RISP are second only to the Yankees’ 21. And among teams with exactly three games in the bank, only the Yankees have more extra-base hits (6) with runners in scoring position than the Cardinals (4) so far.
OLD PAL, PALLANTE: The right-hander had a good first start Sunday, allowing two earned runs in five innings. Pallante could have gone at least one more inning, but that plan was washed away by a rain delay. Since entering the St. Louis rotation on May 29 of last season, Pallante has the team’s best starting-pitcher ERA at 3.56 — which ranks 11th best among NL starters over that time (minimum 110 innings). That 3.56 ERA since last May 29 is better than that of many notable pitchers including Aaron Nola, Dylan Cease, Kevin Gausman, and Logan Webb.
Pallante had to work around some men on base but didn’t crack, limiting the Twins to one hit in six at-bats with runners in scoring position. In the three games, St. Louis pitchers held the Twins to a .150 batting average with RISP. Nice work!
BULLPENNING: Cardinal relievers were scratched for one earned run in 11 innings of security work against Minnesota. The team’s 0.82 bullpen ERA ranks fourth in the majors. Starting pitchers Sonny Gray, Erick Fedde, and Pallante combined for a 2.81 ERA in 16 innings.
THE DEFENSE DOESN’T REST: The Cardinals had a good club defensively in 2024, ranking 13th overall and fifth in the National League with 29 Defensive Runs Saved. The ’24 Redbirds were also 8th overall and fourth in the NL in Outs Above Average.
The STL fielders were good against the Twins. We saw excellent “wow” plays from Scott in center field, Nootbaar in left field, and Brendan Donovan at second base. Willson Contreras made two noteworthy plays at first base. The defensive play of the series was Scott’s sprint to the right-center gap to make a stupendous catch that saved the game.
Over their first three games, the Cardinals were a “plus” defense in runs saved and Outs Above Average. Their Defensive Efficiency percentage (.803) is third best in the majors. What does that mean? The Cardinals converted 80.3 percent of balls in play into outs. Thumbs up.
Thanks for reading …
—Bernie