The Cardinals closed the first month of the season with a 14-17 record and promptly lost their first game in May by losing 9-1 to the Reds. That came after they outscored the Redlegs 15-1 in sweeping a doubleheader less than 24 hours before that. Figures.
The early 2025 season has been an amusement-park ride that isn’t much of a thrill, and difficult to trust. There have been adventures, yes. But do we include the misadventures in that? And then there’s the obstacle course on the road, and the Cardinals keep wandering around, getting lost.
Even though the crowds at Busch Stadium are small now – as the sun goes down on the acclaimed baseball town – the Redbird players love playing at home, even though fans stay away because they despise ownership, the front office, the manager and are ambivalent about every player except the franchise savior Thomas Saggese. (Relax, I’m kidding about that one.)
The Cardinals have some fun, enthusiastic, energetic players. They have some frustratingly enigmatic young players. This is the famous RUNWAY season, but the problem is, we don’t know where it leads to. The Cardinals also have it in them to be boring, which perhaps explains why the TV broadcasters spend so much time talking about moral victories, diving into hot topics like the quality of Cincinnati-style chili.
Here’s The Review of the first month of 2025, and as always, I’ve typed many words, because that’s what I do until switching to a less exhaustive format sometime in the near future. And as always, please excuse my typos.
TAKING STOCK OF THE OFFENSE
The Overview: The Cardinals have been inconsistent, yes. But as you look at the following statistics, you’ll see they’ve performed better offensively than you probably would have assumed. Over the first month of baseball the Cardinals have an impressive ranking in most offensive categories. And while their offense has flaws, so far this group has been better than a 2024 Cardinals team that ranked 12th in the National League in runs per game. Still a long way to go, though. And except for that home-run barrage and 15 runs scored in a doubleheader at Cincinnati on the final day of the month, the St. Louis offense had been slowing down and stalling out. But my purpose here is to evaluate the entire body of work during the opening month – and not cherry-pick stats.
Grading The Cards Offense: A solid “B-minus,” though I would like to see more power, consistency and a boost in stolen bases. But before you think a “B-minus” grade is an example of overrating the STL offense, then just look at where they stood in the first-month rankings at the end of April. The point of this little exercise was examining how the hitters did, collectively, over the first 31 games as a whole.
Runs Scored Per Game: 4.71, 10th in the majors, 7th in the NL, and fourth in the five-team NL Central, with just the Pirates averaging fewer runs per contest. But STL’s 4.71 first-month average was above three NL teams that appear more likely to contend for the postseason: Phillies, Giants and Braves.
Batting Average: .260, 3rd overall, 2nd in the NL, and 2nd to the Cubs in the NL Central.
Onbase Percentage: .333, 6th overall, 4th in the NL and 2nd to the Cubs in the NL Central.
Slugging Percentage: 9th overall, 5th in the NL, and 2nd to the Cubs in the NL Central.
Onbase + Slugging: .738, 8th overall, 5th in the NL, and 2nd to Cubs in the NL Central.
Home Runs Per Game: 0.97, 17th overall, 9th in the NL and 3rd in the NL Central behind the Cubs and Reds.
Average With Runners In Scoring Position: .269, 6th overall, 5th in the NL and 4th in the NL Central behind the Cubs, Reds and Brewers.
Stolen Bases Per Game: 0.81, 12th overall, 9th in the NL and last in the NL Central.
Number Of Times Scoring 3 Runs Or Less: This one surprised me. Through April 30, the Cardinals scored three runs or fewer 10 times in their first 31 games – which is the fifth-lowest total (as in good!) in the majors, 3rd lowest total by an NL team, and the fewest times of any NL Central team. That said, the Cardinals have had too many games of scoring no more than a run. Through Wednesday they’d done that eight times, which was tied for the second-most in the majors. But this is a common problem; in the first month 12 teams had scored one or no runs at least seven times, and 17 teams had scored no more than a run at least six times. In that context, the Cardinals are in a large pack of teams that have been held to no more than one run in their games this season.
The Concern: The St. Louis offense cooled off after their first nine games of the season, posting a mediocre at best slash line of .241 / .311 / .369 over their final 22 games of April. And this team really needs Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman to
Final Thoughts On The First-Month Offense: As I mentioned, this offense definitely has flaws and we’d like to see fewer of those games where they’re shut down to one none or run. But all things considered, this offense comes out looking good for how they did in March-April. Ivan Herrera, who had a booming bat, played only eight games before going on the IL with a knee injury. Barring setbacks, he’ll return soon. And think about the slow or cold starts by so many pieces of their lineup: Masyn Winn, Willson Contreras, Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman and Alec Burleson. And think about the pathetic production the Cardinals received from the DH spot in March-April including a .202 batting average, no home runs, only two RBIs and the worst slugging percentage (.239) among the 30 major-league DH groups. For all of the concerns, the Cardinals scored 5+ runs in a game 15 times – nearly half of their 31 games. And they were 11-4 when they did it.
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TAKING STOCK OF THE RUN PREVENTION
The Overview: The Cardinals have done surprisingly well in the starting-pitching department, turning in a performance that would be higher in quality compared to last season’s showing, but there are five months to go and who knows how this will end up. The six-man occasional rotation concept – consisting of Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Erick Fedde, Matthew Liberatore, Andre Pallante and Steven Matz – has worked reasonably well to this point.
Now for the awful stuff: The bullpen is an obvious liability that has cost the Cardinals several wins (at least.) The Cards have more blown saves, 7, than games saved, 6. Putting aside the work of superb reliever Kyle Leahy, who has pitched exceptionally well – even when the Cardinals lose the game – the other members of the St. Louis bullpen collectively had a 7.63 ERA in the team’s 17 April losses. Moreover, the front office waited way too long to send the key setup reliever, Ryan Fernandez, to Triple A Memphis.
Runs Allowed Per Game: An average of 4.39 runs, 16th overall, 8th in the NL, and 3rd in the NL Central behind the Reds and Brewers. The Cards' runs-against average at the end of April was lower and better than that of three perceived NL contenders: Phillies, Cubs and Diamondbacks.
Team Earned-Run Average: 4.08. That’s 17th overall, 8th in the NL, and tied for 3rd with the Brewers among NL Central teams – behind the Reds and Cubs and ahead of the Pirates.
Starting-Pitcher ERA: 3.88, 14th overall, 7th in the NL and 4th in the NL Central behind the Cubs, Brewers and Reds.
Quality Starts: 14, tied for 1st in the majors with six other teams. Tied for 1st in the NL with the Reds and Phillies. Tied for 1st in the NL Central with the Reds and more than the Cubs, Pirates and Brewers.
Starting Pitching Win Probability Added: 11th best overall 6th in the NL, 4th in the NL Central. The 2024 starting pitchers were ranked 20th overall in WPA.
Bullpen ERA: It’s 4.40, 20th overall, 9th in the NL and 3rd in the NL Central behind the Reds and Pirates.
Save Percentage: 46 percent, 27th overall, 12th in the NL, and worst in the NL Central.
Inherited Runners Scored: 42 percent, 25th overall, 12th in the NL, and 4th in the NL Central ahead of only the Brewers.
Bullpen Win Probability Added: Ranks 25th, which is a long way down from their No. 8 ranking in 2024. The WPA metric is a good one for assessing how a bullpen performs in close games during the course of the season. More on this later.
Final Thoughts On The Opening-Month Pitching + Concerns: I’ll get to the St. Louis defense in more detail in the next section, but the defensive support of the team’s pitching staff is excellent, and that’s an important factor in preventing runs. At the conclusion of April, the Cardinals’ starting pitchers ranked No. 27 among 30 with an average of only 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings, so the rotation has an underlying liability. And the home-run rate allowed by STL starting pitchers – 0.8 per nine innings – is probably an outlier, so the group will likely give up more home runs going forward. As for the relievers … unless the bullpen gets a lot better, a winning season is a longshot and the notion of making it to the postseason is laughable.
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TAKING STOCK OF THE DEFENSE
The Overview: It’s been outstanding. And the significant defensive improvement of right fielder Jordan Walker has been one of the team’s most pleasant surprises in the early stages of 2025. And while I realize that some Cardinals fans will never be convinced that Willson Contreras is playing solid defense after his move to first base … Well, so far he is a +1 in defensive runs saved and also +1 in Outs Above Average. Last season Paul Goldschmidt finished with a neutral defensive score (zero) in both categories.
Defensive Runs Saved: 13, which is 5th overall, 3rd in the NL and second to the Cubs in the NL Central.
Defensive Efficiency: The Cardinals have converted gotten outs on 71.9 percent of the batted balls in play. That’s tied for 7th overall, 3rd in the NL, and 2nd in the NL Central to the Reds.
Outs Above Average: 18, which is tied with the Astros for No. 1 in the majors. The Cards lead the NL and the NL Central in OAA.
Caught-Stealing Rate: 23 percent. That’s 13th best overall, 8th in the NL and 3rd in the NL Central behind the Brewers and Cubs. Pedro Pages has thrown out 29 percent of the runners trying to swipe a bag on him this season – which is a significant improvement over 2024.
Final Thoughts On The Opening-Month Defense + One Question: Keep it up, men. As for the catching, It will be interesting to see what manager Oli Marmol does when Ivan Herrera returns soon. Will he move into more of a DH role and leave the bulk of the catching to Pedro Pages?
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BEST, WORST, WEIRDEST AND MOST DISAPPOINTING
Worst Opening-Month Surprise: Before sweeping a doubleheader from the Reds on the final day of April, the Cards had the second-worst record (2-12) for the first 14 road games of the season in franchise history. At least the Cardinals started to reverse the trend by beating the Reds twice on April 30. But with a chance to win the four-game series on the first day of May, the Cardinals flopped again in a 9-1 loss Thursday. Last season’s team, which won 83 games, had a 39-42 road record that ranked 15th among the 30 teams. At 4-13 on the road entering Friday, the Cardinals would have to go 35-29 away from Busch Stadium the rest of the season to equal last year’s road mark.
Most Encouraging Sign: During the opening month the Cardinals won four of five series played at Busch Stadium and had a 10-5 record. Last season the Cards lost three of their first five series at home and were 6-9 at Busch in their first 15 games.
Best STL Starting Pitcher: Matthew Liberatore. In his five starts covering March and April, Liberatore was fourth best in the majors among starting pitchers with a 1.87 Fielding Independent ERA, ranked second in the majors for lowest walk rate by a MLB starter, and ranked second among starters in strikeout-walk ratio. In the opening month, Libby struck out 14 hitters for every batter he walked. Sonny Gray has done pretty well. Honorable mention to Miles Mikolas, who rebounded from a fiasco of a start at Boston on April 6 to craft a 2.14 ERA and 2.82 FIP in his next four starts. Related note: I did not expect to see the Cardinals tied for the MLB lead with 14 quality starts at the close of April.
Worst And Most Disappointing Starting Pitcher: Erick Fedde. At the end of April he had a 4.68 ERA, with nearly as many walks (16) as strikeouts (17) and was being punished for a high contact rate. Based on the Statcast pitching-run value metric, Fedde has an effective fastball, but his breaking pitches and offspeed pitches are way below average.
As of April 30, here’s where Fedde ranked among the 84 starting pitchers that had worked at least 30 innings:
* ERA: 4.68 … 71st of 84
* Strikeout rate: 12.5% … 83rd of 84
* Swing-miss rate: 7.6% … 81st of 84
* Walk rate: 11.8% … 81st of 84
* Strikeout-walk ratio: 1.06 … 84th of 84
* Contact rate: 83.2% … 79th of 84
Fedde has limited home runs, allowing only 0.83 per nine innings. But that – and fortunate batted-ball luck – are the only things that save him from being even worse.
Remember when many of us, including me, strongly believed the Cardinals should have traded Fedde before the season? He was coming off a career-best season, would be a free agent after 2025, and his ‘25 salary was low enough to be appealing to many potential trade partners. Fedde’s value had never been higher, but he’d lose a lot of value if he (A) suffered a serious injury, or (B) pitched poorly. But remember: John Mozeliak is smarter than all of us.
Best St. Louis Reliever: Kyle Leahy, and it isn’t even close. He was effective as a lower-leverage reliever in 2024, and is off to a fantastic start in 2025. The right-handed Leahy has pitched more than an inning in six of his appearances, is effective in high-leverage scenarios, and does a superb job of neutralizing left-handed hitters.
Among 52 major-league relievers with at least 15 innings pitched this season, Leahy ranks 12th with a 1.47 ERA, first in opponent batting average (.086), third in opponent onbase percentage (.077), and sixth in opponent slugging percentage (.207.)
And among 69 right-handed relievers who have faced at least 24 left-handed hitters this season, Leahy ranks second in limiting those LH bats to an .053 average. And when Leahy took on right-handed hitters in the opening month he had an 32.5 percent strikeout rate.
Worst St. Louis Reliever: Ryan Fernandez. In 11 relief appearances, he was demolished for an 11.42 ERA, seven of his 15 hits allowed went for extra bases, and opponents battered him for a .375 average, .444 OBP.700 slug and a 1.144 OPS. And his strikeout rate collapsed to 15.6% in the aftermath of his 25% strikeout rate as a rookie in 2024. Belatedly – and mercifully – the Cardinals stopped the bleeding and sent poor Fernandez to Triple A Memphis to regroup.
Most Improved hitter: No question, it’s Victor Scott II. And his progress from his first season to second season is very impressive.
As a 24-year old rookie last season, Scott was rushed to the majors to help fill a void caused by multiple injuries to outfielders. He wasn’t ready, finishing with an OPS+ in 53 games that was 60 percent below league average.
In center field, Scott’s defensive reads, angles and footwork needed sharpening, and he was a below-average defender.
In the first month of 2025, Scott hit .271 with a solid .336 onbase percentage and .406 slug for a .743 OPS that’s 241 points higher than his rookie-season OPS. His OPS+ is eight percent above league average – which is a long way from being 60 percent below average, as was the case in 2024.
Scott ranks sixth in the majors with 10 stolen bases. And among the top six leaders in steals, only two have a perfect 100 percent success rate: Oneil Cruz (12 for 12) and Scott (10 for 10.)
In the opening month, Scott emerged as one of the best defensive center fielders in the majors. As of April 30 Scott was tied for third at the position with four Outs Above Average, and ranked with three defensive runs saved. FanGraphs gives Scott an overall defensive rating in center field that ranks fourth among those that have logged at least 210 innings there.
Best Move By Oli Marmol: Installing Lars Nootbaar as the leadoff hitter. Through April 30, Noot ranked second among MLB leadoff men by reaching base 56 times. His leadoff-man onbase percentage, an excellent .392, is topped by only Fernando Tatis Jr. and Shohei Ohtani.
Noot leads all big-league leadoff men with a 17.5 percent walk rate – and has more walks (25) than strikeouts (23.)
Nootbaar has always possessed the ideal skill set for a leadoff man – high onbase percentage, patient plate approach, a lot of walks, few strikeouts, and good power – and Marmol finally committed to him for the role.
In fairness, Nootbaar’s injuries were a factor in Marmol trying others at leadoff including Dylan Carlson, Tommy Edman, Brendan Donovan and Masyn Winn. None were in Nootbaar’s class in a leadoff profile.
Going back to 2013, when Matt Carpenter moved into the No. 1 spot for the Cardinals and was outstanding through 2018, Nootbaar has been STL’s second-best effective leadoff man over that time.
Let’s take a look, minimum 300 plate appearances when batting first in the lineup since 2013, with Carpenter and Nootbaar ranking 1st or 2nd in several important categories.
* Onbase%: Carpenter .381, Noot .366
* Slug%: Carp .480, Noot .450
* OPS: Carp .86, Noot .817
* Walk rate: Noot 13.8%, Carp 13.4%
* Batting average: Carp .278, Noot .261.
* AB/HR ratio: Noot a homer every 23.2 at-bats at leadoff, Carp a homer every 26.3 ABs.
* Finally, wRC+: Carpenter 36% above league average offensively as a leadoff man, and Nootbaar 28% above league average at No.1 in the lineup
Opening-Month Team MVP: It’s a close call, but I’d go with Nootbaar over Brendan Donovan because of Noot’s prolific skill at getting on base at the top of the lineup to set up RBI shots for teammates. (Six of Donovan’s RBIs were scored by Nootbaar.) It’s pretty special to have a leadoff hitter who leads the team in runs scored, runs driven in, times on base, walks, home runs and bWAR.
Most Disappointing Cardinal: We could call it a tie between Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman. But I will go with Walker, because Gorman’s early season was disrupted by an injury and time on the IL. Walker didn’t have to deal with an injury.
At the end of April, among 78 major-league right-handed batters that had at least 100 plate appearances, Walker ranked 60th in batting average (.210), 64th in onbase percentage (.269), 69th in OPS (.559.) and 71st in slugging (.290). Walker’s wRC+, 60, was 40 percent league average offensively at the end of April.
Most Underrated Cardinal So Far: He doesn’t have a lot of strikeout power, but lefty Steven Matz moved between the bullpen and the rotation over the first month and posted a 1.50 in handling both roles. Matz has a great attitude about doing whatever the team needs from him at the time. Matz is worthy of respect.
Most Overrated Cardinal So Far: Alec Burleson is in the majors to hit. He isn’t here to play defense or come off the bench as a pinch-runner to steal a bag. He is not a “small ball” guy. Burly is here for a purpose: do damage offensively. So far this season he’s slugging .291 without a homer. Since the 2024 All-Star break he has a .246 average, .312 slug percentage, .618 OPS, four homers and is 23 percent below league average offensively per wRC+. Going back to late in 2024, Burleson hasn’t homered in his last 216 regular-season at-bats. But he maintains VIP status? Good grief.
Some of this also applies to Burly’s “brother,” Luken Baker. Since hitting his last home run on Sept. 2 of last season, Baker is 11 for 55 (.200) with no home runs, three extra-base hits and a .273 slug. That said, at least the right-handed hitting Baker has a high (21%) walk rate and a .770 OPS vs. lefties this season. So at least the Baker brother is functional against LHP.
The Consequences Of A Bad Bullpen: In 2024, the Cardinals had an awesome bullpen and had a .560 winning percentage in games decided by three runs or fewer. In the first month of 2025 the Cardinals are 6-13 for a .315 winning percentage in games settled by three runs or fewer. Big difference, eh?
Here’s another example: last season, because of their resolute bullpen, the Cardinals had an advantage late in games with the score tied.
I’ll do the before (2024) and after (2025) to show the difference:
* Tied through 6 innings: 18-9 last year, and 1-3 this year.
* Tied through 7 innings: 13-11 last year, 2-5 this season.
* Tied through 8 innings: 10-9 last season, 0-3 this season.
* Tied through 9 innings: 8-9 last year, 0-4 this year.
Worst Move By Marmol: Technically, I guess it’s the worst non-move. Given what I presented in the “bad bullpen consequences” breakdown, the Cards manager has to try and steal wins when inserting closer Ryan Helsley into a tie game when it’s late. Not all of the time, but some of the time. I understand why managers love having a security blanket to protect a close lead in the ninth inning to seal a win. But last season the Cardinals had layers of protection with a good set of set-up relievers. In that context, Marmol could lean on those dudes to carry the lead to Hesley in the ninth inning. But Marmol doesn’t have that luxury so far in 2025.
As I showed you in the numbers, the 2024 Cardinals could hold Helsley back in late-inning tie games. Last season St. Louis had a .573 winning percentage in games that were tied after the sixth, seventh, eighth or ninth innings. In the first month of 2025, the Cardinals had a .167 winning percentage in games tied through the sixth, seventh, eighth and ninth innings.
I’m surprised Marmol is so stubborn about this. If Helsley can protect a tie-game situation and give the Cardinals offense a chance to score, then at least the team has a shot at winning a game. But the way Marmol uses Helsley, he isn’t a factor in tie games, and because of that, the Cardinals have a horrendous record in games that are tied late – and with Helsley parked in the bullpen.
What’s the point of this strategy when a manager keeps strictly waiting for save opportunities to use his closer when those save chances never materialize because opponents are jumping on the Cardinals’ more vulnerable setup relievers to erase the save opportunity for Helsley? This makes no sense.
And by the way: with all of this inactivity, Helsley isn’t sharp. And he’s lost his usual effectiveness.
* ERA: 2.40 last season, 3.60 this season.
* Strikeout rate: 29.7% last year, 22.7% this year.
* Walk rate: 8.6% last year, 18.2% this year.
* Hard-hit rate: 35.4% last year, 42.3% this year.
Most Ridiculous Stat Of The 1st Month: I’ll run this one back. In 124 plate appearances in March-April, St. Louis designated hitters combined to hit .202, with an abysmal .239 slugging percentage. They didn’t homer, and had TWO runs batted in, and went 3 for 34 (.088). What an embarrassment.
PARTIAL WISH LIST GOING FORWARD
– More consistency on offense.
– The starting rotation, holding up.
– The bullpen dousing fires instead of dousing them.
– A designated hitter who can … hit.
– Success for Walker and Gorman.
– A full-time DH gig (or close to it) for Ivan Herrera.
– Another, and fuller, opportunity for Thomas Saggese.
– Michael McGreevy will be promoted to a valuable pitching role in the major leagues before he turns 35 years old. He’s 24 now. There is nothing else for him to work on at Triple A, and his stats aren’t that great down in Memphis early this season. And no wonder. I wouldn’t blame him for being demoralized.
– More Gordon Graceffo in the big-league bullpen.
– John Mozeliak will go sit down, turn his duties over to Chaim Bloom so Bloom can maximize the Cardinals’ participation in the trade market.
NOBODY ASKED ME BUT: I’m going heavy across the board on the No. 7 horse, Luxor Cafe, in the Kentucky Derby. I’ll stack win-place-show tickets on this son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and include him in a good variety of exotic bets.
Thanks for reading … let’s go Blues … and enjoy your weekend.
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting. You can access all of his columns and videos here on SportsHubSTL, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (1120-AM, 104.1-FM), and he is a regular guest of “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by the great Katie Woo of The Athletic.