Greetings! The Cardinals defeated Paul Skenes and the Pirates on Tuesday night, 2-1, with Matthew Liberatore winning an excellent pitching duel between the two imposing starting pitchers at Busch Stadium.
The victory moved the Cardinals (18-19) closer to .500. They can get there in Wednesday’s day game in a starting matchup that pits Sonny Gray against Pittsburgh right-hander Mitch Keller.
The Cardinals didn’t put up much resistance back on April 9, taking terrible at-bats while Keller shut them out over 7 and ⅓ innings. The Pirates won that game 2-1 in 13 innings.
Sonny Gray has an opportunity to reverse an early negative trend. In five starts at Busch Stadium, Gray has been walloped by opponents for six doubles, four homers, a .430 slugging percentage and a 4.45 ERA.
Last season Gray had a 2.79 ERA at home and gave up only five home runs in 93 and ⅔ innings. This season he’s been blasted for four home runs in only 28 and ⅓ innings at Busch.
Gray has no excuses Wednesday in a matchup against a Pirates team that ranks 14th among the 15 National League clubs in runs per game (3.19), batting average (.221), onbase percentage (.304) and OPS (.634.) And the Bucs are last in the NL with an anemic .330 slugging percentage.
HOMIES: The Cardinals already have won their three-game series against the Pirates and can sweep them today. The Cardinals are 13-6 this season amid the sea of empty red seats at Busch Stadium. The only NL teams with a better home record than St. Louis are four of the most formidable clubs in the majors: Dodgers, Mets, Padres and Giants.
The Cardinals have won six of their first seven home series this season, beating the Twins. Phillies, Astros, Brewers, Mets and Pirates – and losing to the Angels.
Last season the Cardinals won four of their first seven home series, so the 2025 club is on a better pace at Busch. The Cards have won four straight home games and are 6-1 in their last seven in downtown STL.
Overall, the Cardinals are 6-2 in their last eight games which includes that doubleheader sweep in Cincinnati that altered their early-season trajectory.
MATTHEW LIBERATORE, ACE? He sure is pitching like one. The Pirates have a terrible offense, but who cares? These same Pirates got to Libby for his worst start of the season to date, putting up five earned runs in his 4 and ⅓ innings in Pittsburgh’s 8-4 win on April 7. No matter how bad a team’s record is, they’re capable of punishing the opponent’s starting pitcher in a random game.
Since that loss to the Pirates, Liberatore has a 1.88 ERA in his five starts. Tuesday, Libby out-pitched the heralded Skenes by limiting the Pirates to three hits, three walks and one run in his 7 innings. And he struck out 35 percent of the 23 Pirates he faced in the game.
And yes, Liberatore is pitching like an ace. That doesn’t mean he’ll keep this up all season, but his early body of work is exceptional.
* Liberatore is tied for 5th among innings-qualified MLB starting pitchers with a 1.4 WAR (the FanGraphs version.)
* His fielding independent (FIP) earned-run average ranks 6th in the majors at 2.30.
* Liberatore is No. 6 in the majors with a strikeout-walk ratio of 6.3, and he’s 10th for the best home-run rate allowed at 0.44 per nine innings.
* His standard ERA of 3.07 ranks 32nd overall on a list of 82 innings-qualified MLB starting pitchers. And it’s 12th among left-handed starters.
* Liberatore had a rain-shortened start of 2 and ⅔ innings at Cincinnati – but in games that didn’t have a rain delay, Liberatore has averaged 6.33 innings per start.
* Liberatore is an extremely difficult challenge for left-handed hitters, holding them to a .229 batting average. But the mature and evolved Liberatore is even tougher on right-handed hitters this season, controlling them for a .210 batting average.
* Liberatore’s expanded pitching arsenal is a big reason for his dramatic improvement against right-handed hitters. He hasn't allowed a batting average higher than .229 when he throws a four-seam fastball, sinker, cutter, changeup or curve. The only success RH batters have against him is a .292 average against his slider. This season RH batters have an overall .210 average vs. Liberatore.
* These numbers jumped out at me: before this season, when confronted by right-handed hitters, Liberatore was mauled for a 6.09 ERA, .293 average and .878 OPS – and was popped for an average of 1.3 home runs per nine innings. Plus, he had a poor 18 percent strikeout rate and 11 percent walk rate against them.
* This season, Liberatore has a 3.45 ERA vs. RH batters and has limited them to a .210 average with a .542 OPS and 0.6 home runs per nine innings. And his strikeout rates and walk rates are much better against righty bats this season – 22 percent strikeout rate and a 1.7% walk rate.
THE BULLPEN BRIGADE: During the team’s 6-2 run, the St. Louis relievers have combined for a 3.18 ERA that ranks seventh best in the majors since April 30. In their four-game win streak against the Mets and Pirates, Cardinal relievers have been nicked for two earned runs in 15 and 2/3 innings for a 1.15 ERA.
Both runs were allowed by Phil Maton. During the four straight wins Ryan Helsley, Michael McGreevy, Kyle Leahy, Gordon Graceffo, Steven Matz and JoJo Romero haven’t allowed a run in their combined 14 and 1.3 innings. Congrats to Graceffo for his first career MLB save, earned by locking down the Pirates in the ninth inning of Tuesday’s 2-1 victory.
The Cardinals had one of the worst bullpens in the majors through April 23, burdened by a 5.11 ERA and six blown saves. But since April 25, the Cardinals’ bullpen ERA is 2.78 (sixth best) with four saves and only one blown save.
ALEC BURLESON: Burly provided the winning margin in the sixth inning Tuesday with a two-out double off Skenes that plated two runs and gave the Cards a 2-1 lead. In his last three games, Burleson has two homers and a double for five RBIs. With Burleson it’s almost always about ignoring trash pitches off the plate, staying focused, and attacking pitches in the strike zone. Sure enough, when Burleson has connected on a strike over the last three games, he has a .364 batting average, .1000 slugging percentage, an average exit velocity of 96.7 mph, and a hard-hit rate of 55.6 percent.
YEP, STILL WAITING: I did a video on this earlier in the day. But here are the combined stats for Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman through the Cardinals’ first 37 games:
– 195 plate appearances
– .187 batting average
– .232 onbase percentage
– .281 slugging percentage
– 3 home runs in 171 at-bats.
– OPS of .523 that’s 108 points below the overall major-league standard this season.
With Burleson hot and Gorman ice cold, manager Oli Marmol has been giving more at-bats to Burly. Gorman didn’t start Wednesday even with the Pirates going with a right-handed starting pitcher. Since returning from the IL on April 12, Gorman has hit .127 with a .200 slugging percentage in his 19 games through Tuesday.
SLUMPING: In his first six games of May, leadoff man Lars Nootbaar hit .083 with a .185 onbase percentage and .167 slug – and had more strikeouts (5) than walks (3).
THUMPING: Willson Contreras drew two walks Tuesday and scored the winning run on Burleson’s double. In his last 16 games before Wednesday, Contreras batted .386 with a .485 OBP and .614 slug.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting. You can access all of his columns and videos here on SportsHubSTL, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (1120-AM, 104.1-FM), and he is a regular guest of “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by the great Katie Woo of The Athletic.