My gosh, the Cardinals are breaking out … not with dermatitis … not in that Olivia Rodrigo, 2021, quick rise to superstardom sort of way … this certainly isn’t like the first American Pope, Leo XIV – a White Sox fan, no less – suddenly appearing on the balcony at St Peter's Basilica in Rome. But it’s great to see a Cardinal do well.
And it’s great to see the Cardinals do well.
With their swoosh of success, the baseball Cardinals may be causing a rush of blood to the head for fans and haters alike.
In case you were trapped in a hyperbaric chamber …
The Cardinals have won eight consecutive games. They own MLB’s best record (10-2) since April 30. The Redbirds have claimed the National League’s top record (12-4) since April 25. And this lively and productive activity has put the Cardinals (22-19) into second place in the NL Central, just a game behind the division-leading Cubs (23-18.)
This nice change of pace is being enjoyed by most Cardinals fans. The people who predicted a 100-loss season might be a little distraught, but they’ll get over it.
Will the good times last? I don’t know. According to the ESPN metrics, the Cardinals have played the 10th easiest schedule in baseball this season. The ESPN power index ranks the Cardinals in the middle of the pack at No. 15 among the 30 teams.
The 2025 season is still taking shape, and there’s roughly 75 percent of the schedule still to go.
You will recall that the 2024 Cards stumbled out to a 15-24 start, reinvented themselves by winning 33 of the next 51 games – but then had a losing record (35-37) from July 10 through the end of the schedule. Their postseason hopes expired in August.
The Cardinals’ 2024 adventure ended with an 83-79 record. But it was like a wild ride on the old-school classic “Scrambler” at a carnival. Spinning motions, rotating arms, and dizzying directions.
I can say this: it’s been fun.
The St. Louis baseball team is entertaining. It is exciting. It is receiving winning performances from virtually every part of the team.
Why is this happening? Glad you asked. Happy to answer.
The Review presents: eight reasons for the eight-game winning streak:
1) The reversal of form and fortune by the bullpen. After imploding during much of April, the Cardinals sent reliever Ryan Fernandez to Triple A Memphis and rearranged the bullpen pieces to build a stronger bridge to closer Ryan Helsley. The particulars include Steven Matz, Gordon Graceffo, a more important role for Kyle Leahy, and increased fastball velo by JoJo Romero.
Since April 25, the Cards have the fourth-best bullpen ERA (2.39) in the majors, lead MLB in holds, have converted 83.3 percent of their save opportunities, have four wins and no losses, and played a lead role in STL’s 5-0 record in one-run games over that time.
Before that, Cardinals relievers had a 5.11 bullpen ERA that ranked 26th, locked down only 43.3 percent of the save opps, were charged with eight losses, and the team was 0-5 in one-run outcomes.
During the 10-2 stretch the bullpen ERA is 2.61. And in winning eight straight games, the bullpen ERA is a ridiculous 0.83 – and in the eight games the relievers faced 92 batters without allowing a home run.
2) The underrated St. Louis offense continues to improve. Underrated? Sure, no question about it. Do the Cardinals have a Top Ten offense in the major leagues? If you pose that question to an average Cardinals fan – one who doesn’t inflate or deflate after every game, depending on outcome – I’m pretty sure the answer would be “No.”
That would be the incorrect answer. The STL offense is Top 10. Still wondering about that? As of Monday morning, here’s where we located the Cardinals in the most important categories:
Runs per game: 4.73, 10th among 30 teams.
Batting average: .261, fourth.
On-base percentage: .338 – third, behind the Yankees and Dodgers.
Slugging percentage: .403, 10th in the majors. Yes, the Cardinals rank only 19th in home runs per game, but there’s more to slugging than HRs. The Cardinals are tied for the MLB lead with 82 doubles. Their average of 2.0 doubles per game ranks second, and a Cardinal team hasn’t ranked second in that category since 2013. Not that the Cardinals can sustain their current pace, but doubles are a big reason for their success so far.
OPS: .740, 8th.
During the eight-game winning streak the Cardinals averaged 5.5 runs per game, slugged .438 and stroked 18 doubles and seven home runs. And they’ve scored 5.3 runs per game while going 10-2.
Another measure: the Cardinals have been held to 3 runs or fewer only 13 times this season -- with only the Yankees (with 11) doing better than that. And the Cards have scored 5 or more runs 21 times, which is tied for No. 3 in MLB.
3) The Cardinals continue to win games against good starting pitchers. Let’s start with this: through 41 games, opposing starting pitchers have a 4.65 ERA against St. Louis. That’s a high ERA. The Cardinals haven’t put a 4.65 ERA on starting pitchers since 2017. And technically, that ERA was 4.64. But we’ll consider it a tie. The point: this is good!
I looked at all of their 22 wins this season to come up with some of the best starting pitchers they’ve won games from this season. And most of the guys on this list have earned-run averages of 3.50 or less, with others being under a 4.00 ERA. A couple of these starters have earned-run averages that are higher than usual, but I included them on the list because they had very good ERAs as recently as last season. Anyway … in 14 of their 22 victories the Cardinals have defeated the following starters:
Paul Skenes (2)
Pablo Lopez (1)
Joe Ryan (1)
Bailey Ober (1)
Yosei Kikuchi (1)
Zack Wheeler (1)
Aaron Nola (1)
Framber Valdez (1)
Brady Singer (1)
Tylor Megill (1)
Mitch Keller (1)
Mitchell Parker (1)
* Trevor Williams (1)
MacKenzie Gore (1)
* Williams has been terrible this season but had a 2.03 ERA for the Nationals last season.
4) St. Louis starting pitchers are in a groove. The rotation has a 2.69 ERA during the 10-2 stretch; that leads the NL since April 30. Sonny Gray, Matthew Liberatore, Erick Fedde, Miles Mikolas, Andre Pallante and Steven Matz have each turned in one (or more) good starts during the 10-2 surge. And how about Mikolas? Since getting hammered at Fenway Park early in the season, Mikolas has a 2.59 ERA in six starts and has limited opponents to a .217 average and .339 slugging percentage. Mikolas has averaged a little over five innings per start during this stretch, but the quality of his work is much better.
“One constant is the starting pitching,” president of baseball ops John Mozeliak said Sunday on KMOX. “They’re eating a lot of innings for us, and saving our bullpen.”
The Cardinals are averaging more innings per start this season, but it’s by a slight difference. But during the eight-game win streak, Cardinals starters averaged 6.1 innings per start. And that’s very good by today’s standards.
5) Massive improvement in batting with runners in scoring position: the Cardinals were a disaster in RISP situations last season, ranking either 27th or 28th in batting average (.229), onbase percentage, slugging and OPS. Based on the wRC+ metric, the Cardinals were 20 percent below league average offensively when batting with RISP.
This season? Different story. When hitting with runners in scoring position, the Cardinals have .272 average (8th), .354 OBP (7th), .433 slug (8th), .787 OPS (6th) and are 17 percent above league average offensively in handling RISP opportunities. Here’s another way to look at it: last season the Cardinals ranked 26th in RBIs produced with RISP; this season they’re 8th so far.
6) The Cardinals are winning the home-run derby. Last season the Cards were a minus nine in the home-run differential, hitting 165 but giving up 174. That’s turned the other way so far this season; STL is a plus-7 with 38 homers for, and 31 against. Cards pitchers have done an excellent job of keeping the ball in the yard this season, allowing homers at a rate of 0.8 per nine innings. That’s tied for No. 2 among the 30 pitching staffs.
The home-run differential has been clicking for the Cardinals in recent times. Since April 30 they’ve out-homered opponents 14-7. And they’ve won the home-run count, 8-3, during their eight-game win streak. If a team lacks imposing home-run prowess offensively, the next best way to neutralize the potential disadvantage is by preventing opponents from hitting more home runs than you do. And the Cardinals are doing just that.
7) This St. Louis defense doesn’t rest: The Cardinals had a good club defensively in 2024, ranking eighth in the majors with 15 outs above average and 13th with 29 defensive runs saved. This season, the defense is performing at a much higher level and is arguably the best in the majors. The Cardinals lead MLB with 29 outs above average – more than they had all of last season. And the Cards are third in MLB with 22 defensive runs saved. They’ve also improved from 18th (last year) to 8th in defensive efficiency. The St. Louis pitchers have received excellent protection from their defenders on the field.
8) The leadership of the dugout staff is an asset: Manager Oli Marmol and pitching coach Dusty Blake did a great job of rearranging the bullpen after the atrocious performance in the first three-plus weeks. The quality of the at-bats has improved under the new batting coach, Brant Brown.
The Cardinals are more patient in 2025 and have a higher walk rate because of it. The strikeout rate has also decreased this season. They have fouled off a higher percentage of pitches to keep at-bats going. They have increased their percentage of balls in play. The Cardinals still look at too many called strikes – but are improving. Brown has made a difference for Victor Scott II. The hitters are more prepared for each game – and each new pitcher that enters the game – way more than last season, and in 2023.
Brown hasn’t found the magic-formula answers for Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman, but some progress has been made – even though the results are thin. It’s impressive to see the offensive thriving despite the poor starts by Gorman and Walker and the 30-game absence of Ivan Herrera because of a knee injury.
Marmol has stayed poised and focused under pressure. He’s found solutions and implemented some good ideas, like batting Lars Nootbaar at leadoff. The Cardinals have a good team vibe. The club has stayed strong through adversity. The internal culture is better. The players enjoy playing for Marmol, and it shows.
Marmol entrusted Matthew Liberatore with a rotation spot. Great move. After pondering the choice for a starting center fielder, Marmol went with Victor Scott II. The decision elevated the entire offense. And if Walker and Gorman find some answers soon, much of it will be due to Marmol’s patience with them.
“St. Louis Cardinals manager Oli Marmol quietly has done wonders with a team that’s supposed to be nothing more than a rebuild,” wrote USA Today baseball columnist Bob Nightengale.
The Cardinals’ schedule will be less forgiving over the next two weeks – and even beyond that. Their next four series will be played against postseason contenders Philadelphia, Kansas City, Detroit and the LA Dodgers. The turnaround was necessary. But the Cardinals can’t go backwards.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on SportsHubSTL, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM, and he is a regular guest of “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by the great Katie Woo of The Athletic.