It was a typical game of baseball for the young Cardinals phenom named Ivan Herrera. He had two hits, knocked home two runs and scored twice as the home team trampled the Tigers 11-4 in a soppy night at Busch Stadium.
I have come to expect these things for this monster-mashing intimidator who fills the batter’s box with an imposing physical presence I haven’t seen since No. 5 came along in 2001.
No, I am not saying Ivan Herrera is Albert Pujols or will have a major-league career that resembles The Machine. Why? Oh, I don’t know. Maybe because there will never be another Pujols? Maybe because Pujols is the ONLY hitter in MLB history to amass a combination of 3,000 or more hits, 2,000 or more RBIs, 700 or more home runs and multiple league MVP awards?
A local blogger got a little excited and perhaps agitated recently when I said that Herrera’s body type, his size, and his menacing demeanor reminded me of the young Pujols. Because, well, I don’t know … probably because I was standing behind the batting cage when Pujols, then 21, took his first round of batting practice at Roger Dean in 2001. I’ve told this story before, but manager Tony La Russa made grunting sounds – and animal noises – each time Pujols smashed a pitch and cracked the sky.
This gentleman, who is a fine writer, apparently believed I was casting Herrera as the next Pujols, or something like that. Nope. Once again, I said that Herrera had a similar presence - in build and appearance.
The author then proceeded to write that a better comparison to Herrera would be Allen Craig.
Allen Craig? What? Apologies, but I don’t see the physical resemblance.
Sure, Craig was an excellent young hitter and Herrera is an excellent young hitter. But again, this isn’t about any sort of career projection. My point about Herrera/Pujols was focused on their physical profiles.
Craig was taller and thinner than Herrera, and not nearly as thick and brawny and strong as Herrera.
I will say this about Herrera: based on early returns – only 387 career plate appearances in the bigs – he has displayed the potential to become the second-best right-handed hitter drafted and developed by the Cardinals since Pujols. My scan also took into account an international signing like Aledmys Diaz.
Please note that I typed in the word “potential.” Thank you kindly.
The Cardinals haven’t been great in this area. Based on 350 career plate appearances as Cardinals, here are the best right-handed hitters that were drafted-developed by St. Louis going back to 1990. And I’ll use OPS+, so please keep in mind that 100 is league average:
Albert Pujols, 169
Ivan Herrera, 136
Allen Craig, 120
Tommy Pham, 119
Brian Jordan, 115
Bernard Gilkey, 113
Aledmys Diaz, 111
Stephen Piscotty, 111
Todd Zeile, 111
Herrera has a long, long way to go. Pitchers will throw tricks at him. They’ll find a weakness. He will have to adjust. That’s the way it has always been for young hitters. But Herrera’s abundant talent as a hitter is obvious – small sample or not. The Cardinals haven’t had an internally developed right-handed hitter this exciting since … oh, never mind.
For his career, Herrera has a .311 batting average, .384 onbase percentage, .464 slug and .849 OPS. And that 136 OPS+ puts him 36 percent above league average offensively,
Herrera received only 22 plate appearances in 2023, so let’s put that season aside for now to focus on 2024-2025.
In 321 plate appearances since the start of last season Herrera has a .325 average, .394 onbase percentage, .502 slugging percentage, and an .896 OPS. His OPS+ over the last two seasons is 49 percent higher than the league average.
In a 2025 season interrupted by a knee injury that cost him 30 games, Herrera is batting .426 with a .484 OBP, .815 slug, and 1.255 OPS. His OPS+, which obviously will deflate, puts Herrera 155 percent above league average offensively in his 62 plate appearances.
Didn’t the knee injury slow Herrera down and cause him to lose the early-season charge of momentum? Umm, no.
Since returning from the IL on May 9, Herrera has a .455 average, .500 OBP, .667 slug and a 1.167 OPS. He’s hit safely in his first nine games. He’s had multiple hits four of the nine games. He’s driven in a run in four of the nine, and scored a run in eight of the nine.
All but a couple of his Statcast graphics are colored in deep red – which is great. His bat speed is ridiculous. His barrel rate is ridiculous. His hard-hit rate is ridiculous. His sweet-spot launch angle is ridiculous. Surely there are holes in Herrera’s swing, correct? Not really. His whiff-swing rate is very low. His strikeout rate (16%) seems out of place for this era of baseball. He crushes fastballs. Crushes breaking pitches. The hitters don’t try to trick him with off-speed stuff, because Herrera will make the ball disappear.
And when a pitcher slings a pitch that enters the middle of the strike zone? It becomes a big and regrettable mistake.
In 127 at-bats in which he connected and put the ball in play since the start of last season, Herrera has a .386 batting average, .661 slug, a 58 percent hard-hit rate … and has struck out 11 percent of the time.
Even on the edges of the strike zone since the start of 2024, we’ve seen Herrera bat .356 with a .575 slug in 2019 at-bats.
Herrera must be pull-crazy, yes? Big strong dude. Wants to use his powerful right-handed swing to pull as many pitches as he can. That’s the assumption, sure. But it’s not reality.
Over the last two seasons, he’s pulled the ball 36.8 percent of the time, hit it straightaway 35% of the time, and hit to the opposite field on 28.3% of his connections.
Here are the corresponding batting averages: .481 pulled, .321 straightaway, and .467 opposite field.
Where’s his weakness? The pitchers are still searching.
When batting with runners in scoring position since returning, Herrera is 4 for 9 (.444) with eight RBIs.
Before manager Oli Marmol plugged Herrera in at designated hitter on May 9, the St. Louis DH delegation had combined to deliver four RBIs in 132 at-bats.
Herrera has nine RBIs in 28 DH at-bats since returning.
Through May 8, Cardinals’ designated hitters had a .197 average, .250 slug, and a .541 OPS.
Herrera has done slightly better than that – and yes, I’m being sarcastic. His 1.163 OPS as a DH looks pretty good.
Tuesday, when speaking with Marmol about Herrera on KMOX, I asked him to assess the young hitter’s “ceiling.”
“I wouldn’t put a ceiling on him,” Marmol said. “He loves to compete. He steps in the box, and it’s just fun. He’s having fun competing on every single pitch. He’ll go up there with a plan, and he can flip it at mid at-bat. He just has an answer for every style of pitching. He’s not ‘splitty’ at all. He handles righties extremely well. He handles lefties extremely well. He hits (high) velo, he hits off-speed. With two strikes you can tell how his approach changes. He just does a really nice job of being a good hitter.
“He’s not just stepping in the box looking to slug and hit homers. He takes a lot of pride in being a good hitter. He can do just about everything in that box … and he’s young and still learning.”
THE POSITIVITY INDEX
In chronological order:
— Since losing three consecutive series in early April, the Cardinals have the National League’s best record (22-14) and their .611 winning percentage ranks fourth overall.
— Since the Cardinals rolled out their reordered bullpen on April 25, they are 17-6 for a .739 winning percentage that ranks first in the NL and is second in the majors.
— Beginning with that doubleheader sweep at Cincinnati on April 30, the Cardinals are 15-4 for a .789 winning percentage that’s No. 1 in the majors.
— In the month of May the Cardinals are 13-4 for a .765 winning percentage that leads the NL and is second in the majors.
— Since May 4, the Cardinals are 13-2 and have the best win percentage (.867) among NL teams and the only AL team that’s done better are the Twins at 13-1.
— With Monday’s seven-run victory over the Tigers, the Cardinals are 16-6 at home this season for a .727 winning percentage that’s topped by only the Twins (17-5) and Mets (17-5.)
— The Cardinals are tied for 5th in the majors with a positive run differential of plus 45. But while rolling to MLB’s top record (15-4) since April 30, the Cardinals have outscored opponents 104 to 55 for a plus 49 run differential. What does this tell us? There is nothing fluky about their success.
ARENADO: NOT CLEANING UP. Before Monday’s game Cards manager Oli Marmol and third baseman Nolan Arenado had a visit and agreed on a lineup change that made sense. Arenado was moved from the cleanup spot (4th) to No. 6 on Marmol’s card. Wilson Contreras was elevated to the cleanup spot and Ivan Herrera went from the sixth hole to No. 5 in the order.
As noted here yesterday, Arenado was hitting wonderfully through April 15, having put up an average .311 average, slugging .508, and posting a strong .908 OPS.
But ‘Nado began freefalling after that. And in his last 28 games, Arenado batted .202 with a .294 slugging percentage and .560 OPS. It’s been a massive downturn for him, and numbers like that are obviously a horrible bad fit for a cleanup hitter.
Arenado’s numbers in the No. 4 spot continued to fade. Since April 16 he had a .305 slugging percentage at cleanup with an adjusted runs created mark that was 35 percent below league average. Arenado’s overall slugging percentage for the season was .380, which is well below the overall MLB slug of .425 for No. 4 hitters.
Much respect to Arenado for realizing the Cardinals would be better served by using more capable hitters at the 4th and 5th spots. Marmol was giving Arenado time to heat up – if possible – because the Cards have the NL’s best record since April 11 and were winning plenty even as Arenado’s numbers were falling fast.
Marmol had no reason to freak out and make a rash move, but the Cardinals weren’t getting much from the No. 4 spot. And at some point, that would begin to impact the team’s record in a meaningful and harmful way. But Arenado made it easy for Marmol by volunteering to move down in the lineup.
This tells us a lot about the respect Arenado has for Mamrol. And it’s a real-time example of the team-first attitude that’s shared in a happy and unified clubhouse.
ARENADO’S DECLINE: The lineup switch also tells us that Arenado had lost confidence in his ability to put up worthy numbers in an important lineup spot.
Arenado’s offensive decline began in 2023 but really accelerated over the last two seasons. At age 34, he’s highly unlikely to reverse the trend other than having the occasional hot streak.
It might help Arenado to get more days off. That would ease the physical and mental strain. And the Cardinals could get more at-bats for Nolan Gorman by giving him more starts at third base, his natural position.
I could bomb you with a lot of stats, but I’ll leave it at this …
Arenado had a career year in 2022, slugging .533 with adjusted OPS that was 51 percent above league acreage offensively. He also homered every 18.5 at-bats in 2022.
But Arenado’s stats have receded in every season that followed 2022. And as I type this today, Arenado in 2025 is slugging .371 with an adjusted OPS that’s nine percent below league average offensively. And his home-run rate has plummeted to a homer every 42.5 at-bats.
Arenado still plays great defense, and the Cardinals will be paying him a premium price for that elite skill between now and the final year (2027) of his contract.
MAY I HAVE A COUPLE OF MINUTES?
Thank you. Through Monday night, Cubs manager Craig Counsell had only one more win than Oli Marmol since the start of last season.
Counsell is one of the most acclaimed managers in baseball, and the Cubs pulled off a major heist by luring him to the Friendly Confines after the 2023 season. But last season, Counsell and Marmol won the same number of games (83) despite the Cardinals coming off a ‘23 season (record 71-91) that was their worst in a full season since 1990.
By the time the 2025 season is over, the Cubs will have spent around $110 million more in payroll over the last two seasons with Counsell as their manager.
Counsell is managing an “all in” franchise in 2025. (Well, mostly all in.) Marmol is managing a franchise in transition – and a franchise that spent $2 million in free-agent money in advance of the ‘25 season.
The Cubs? They got ready for 2025 by trading for Astros right fielder Kyle Tucker, who is making $16.5 million this season. The Cubbies also invested $56.25 million to sign six major-league level free agents.
Hold on, now. Marmol has only one fewer win than Counsell (111-110) since the beginning of 2024? That can’t be true! No way!
YOU’RE A DAMN LIAR, BERNIE!!!
No, I’m not. What I’m telling you is true, my dear and disoriented Oli Haters. I’m sorry to upset you. So please go take a couple of aspirin, crawl onto the fainting couch, and rest your overheated brains.
By the way: does anyone feel like letting the national media know about this? Marmol has been fired in baseball gossip columns about 500 times already this season.
STUFF I LIKE
* I like that the Cardinals are outstanding at hitting to the opposite field. As a matter of fact, the Cards lead the majors with 118 hits to the oppo side of the yard. And these aren’t just a collection of bloopers and dinky singles. The Birds have clubbed 33 doubles to the opposite field this season. Not only are the Redbirds hitting .345 when going the opposite way – but their “oppo” slugging percentage is a robust .468.
* I like knowing that the St. Louis offense had the third-best, two-strike batting average in the majors through Monday. And the Redbirds also had the fifth-lowest strikeout rate in the majors in two-strike counts.
* I like that Matthew Liberatore has a better fielding independent ERA this season (2.32) than Max Fried (2.72), Paul Skenes (2.76), Garrett Crochet (2.79), Zack Wheeler (2.95), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.06) and Dylan Cease (3.28). Wow.
* I like that Jordan Walker is 4 for his last 11 (.364) with a double, game-winning home run and five RBIs. It’s a start.
* I like the St. Louis defense. Their outfielders (as a group) lead the majors in Outs Above Average. Their infielders (as a group) lead the majors in Outs Above Average.
* I like the state of the Cardinals’ rotation. As I mentioned earlier, the Redbirds have the best record in the NL since April 11. Over that time, St. Louis starting pitchers are 2nd in the NL and 5th overall with a 2.99 ERA. The rotation leads the NL in Win Probability Added since April 11, and only one big-league rotation, the Royals, have more quality starts (20) than STL (19) during the stretch that ended Monday.
I'm out of words and tired of typing. And my boss here at SportsHubSTL -- Dave "Hardball" Greene, has grown impatient. Hell, I don't blame him.
Thanks for reading …
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on SportsHubSTL, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM, and he is a regular guest of “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by the great Katie Woo of The Athletic.