After a one-day break from winning, the Cardinals bounced back from a 5-2 Memorial Day loss at Baltimore by taking over in the late innings for a 7-4 victory over the O’s on Tuesday at Camden Yards.
Here’s what I loved about the Redbirds’ winning performance:
1. It was their 13th comeback win. That means 42 percent of their victory total (31) this season have included a rally to erase a deficit. They can’t make a successful comeback every time they get down to an opponent in a game, but the Cardinals are always up for a good fight. The challenge of wiping out an opponent’s lead seems to energize them.
2. The increasingly lovable Nolan Arenado struck again. Two hits including a key solo homer that gave the Cardinals a 5-4 lead in the top of the 8th inning. His teammates, including the bullpen, took it from there. Arenado is 34, and will never be that 30-homer, .500 slugging percentage guy again. And that’s OK. All players are on a different aging curve and it’s unfair and unrealistic to expect them to repeat the best years of their careers. What we must do is accept the reality of time, what it does to an athlete – and appreciate what they still can do to help their team win. And what we see from Arenado is an intensely competitive man who sets a standard for the desire to make a huge defensive play or deliver when his team is in a jam. Arenado is still an elite defender at third base. And while his offensive numbers are down, he still comes through in timely moments. Arenado was that guy again on Tuesday. He wasn’t traded. He still loves being a Cardinals. And St. Louis loves him back. And it’s really a wonderful thing, even as he strains to be the hitter that he used to be.
3. Lars Nootbaar lives! Welcome back, Noot. When the Cardinals’ leadoff man is on his game, this is a much better offense. And Nootbaar had a fantastic game to lead the Cardinals to a good win. More details to follow.
4. Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker. Back-to-back triples in the eighth-inning charge that left the Orioles dazed? What? No, really … WHAT? Yeah, the consecutive triples happened, and I don’t want any whining about how the Orioles’ outfielders didn’t track the ball well. It was wet. Mobility is limited on a soaked field of grass. And Gorman and Walker both drilled high-velocity shots. These fellas didn’t bloop their way to those back-to-back triples. They smashed the damn baseball.
5. Gorman and Walker were at their best – after they were at their worst. This was an important sequence for two dudes who are trying to build confidence. In the top of the sixth, the Cardinals trailed 4-3 and had a runner on third base with one out. The Orioles brought in lefty reliever Gregory Soto to face Gorman and then Walker. You probably remember what happened: strikeout swinging, and strikeout swinging. Two big whiffs in a crucial situation. The “X” world of anger that’s both real and manufactured …
Well, Cards fans on “X” at that time were so outraged by Gorman and Walker’s failure, and I could only sample so much of it before wondering if it was possible to contract rabies online through a social-media performance application.
I don’t think that’s possible, but I thought it was best to avoid the vitriol as the Best Fans In Baseball went into another Gorman-Walker feeding frenzy. These people were just short of Linda Blair’s head-spinning and vomiting routine in the original “The Exorcist” film. Or maybe it was a Rage Against the Machine concert, with Zack de la Rocha shrieking at full blast. “A bullet in ya head! … a bullet in ya head! .. a bullet in ya head.!”
(Metaphorically, of course. I think.)
So yeah, it was good for some giggles to see Gorman and Walker redeem themselves in the next at-bat by savaging pitches for triples. Gorman’s triple was followed by Walker’s RBI triple to make it 6-4 Cardinals. Masyn Winn singled to drive in Walker to give the Cardinals a 7-4 lead. One of the highlights of the season – at least for me, anyway.
In his last 12 games Walker hit .344 with a .563 slug, .906 OPS, three extra-base hits and nine RBIs. And in the month of May, Walker is 8 for 19 (.421) and 11 RBIs when batting with runners in scoring position. Gorman’s progress is more of a low-key development, but he’s hit .278 in his last six games, and the triple was his first extra-base hit April 26. And Gorman continues to lower his strikeout rate, whiff-swing rate – and increase his walk rate. Small steps that could lead to big things.
STAR OF THE GAME: That would be The Nootbaar. The animated outfielder burned his way out of a prolonged slump by attacking Baltimore pitching for two hits, a walk, a two-run homer, and two runs scored. To update a stat I cited in Tuesday’s “Review” in explaining Nootbaar’s high value to the Cardinals when he gets on base as their leadoff man.
Including Tuesday’s win, the Cardinals are 21-9 and average 5.8 when Nootbaar reaches base at least two times in a game. When he gets on base at least three times, the Cardinals are 9-2 and averaged over 5 runs per game. When Nootbaar starts and doesn’t reach base, the Cardinals are 4-5 and average 3.4 runs per game.
TOP TWO LINEUP SPOTS: Nootbaar had a willing accomplice in mayhem in No. 2 hitter Masyn Winn. In Tuesday’s victory the top two lines on Oli Marmol’s lineup card combined for five hits plus a walk in 10 plate appearances with four runs batted in and two scored. After a slow start to the campaign, Winn has a .389 on-base percentage and a .480 slug in his last 28 games – and his haul over that time includes six doubles, five homers, 14 RBIs and 21 runs scored.
ALEC BURLESON, STILL HOT: Burly had two hits Tuesday and continues his surge at the plate after batting only .239 with a .284 slugging percentage in his first 22 games of the season. It’s funny how the TV broadcasters and other media talk about Burleson having a hot May … as if his hot streak began in May. This actually doesn’t give Burleson full credit for how well he’s been hitting, because his breakout offensively began on April 22.
In 80 plate appearances since April 22, Burleson has a .329 average, .363 on-base rate, and a .539 slugging percentage for a big-fella .902 OPS. Among NL hitters that have at least 80 plate appearances since April 22, Burly ranks tied for sixth in batting average, is 13th in slugging, and 15th in OPS. Based on adjusted runs created (wRC+) Burleson is 53 percent above league average since April 22. And that figure is 10th best among the 117 NL hitters that have taken 80 plate appearances over that time.
THE ACCOUNTING DEPARTMENT: The Cardinals have the NL’s best record (15-5) since May 4, and their 17-7 record (.708) in May is second in the NL to the Phillies and third overall to the Phils and Twins … the Cardinals’ 19-7 mark (.731) since April 30 is second in the majors to the Phillies (.760) … the Cards have the MLB’s third-best record (21-9) since April 25 … and since April 11, STL’s 26-17 record (.605) is tied with the Mets for third in the NL behind the Phillies (.643) and Cubs (.625.)
FUN WITH PAYROLL NUMBERS: At 31-24, Cards manager Oli Marmol and his team go into Thursday with the same record as the Giants. This is notable because the Cardinals have a $140 million payroll this season that ranks 19th among the 30 teams. The Cards slashed nearly $40 million from their season-ending payroll in 2024.
The Giants are at $173 million. And yet their manager, so far, has the same winning percentage, .564, as Marmol’s $140 million team.
Here’s a list of MLB teams that are spending more on payroll than the Cardinals – and have a lower winning percentage than the Cards – through May 27:
Blue Jays, $248 million – $108 million more than STL.
Rangers, $221 million – $81 million more than STL.
Astros, $220 million – $81 million more than STL.
Braves, $214 million – $74 million than STL.
Angels, $207 million – $67 million more than STL.
Red Sox, $200 million – $60 million more than STL.
Diamondbacks, $187 million – $47 million above STL.
Orioles, $167 million – $27 million more than STL.
Twins, $145 million – $5 million more than STL.
RECENT HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE: After losing in Atlanta on April 23, the Cardinals were left gasping with a 10-15 record through their first 25 games. At that time only six MLB teams had a record of 10-15 or worse: Cardinals (10-15), Pirates (10-15), Orioles (9-14), Twins (9-15), White Sox (5-19) and Rockies (4-18).
Of the six teams, only the Cardinals and Twins have responded in a meaningful and successful way. The Cards and Twins are both 21-9 since then. The others: White Sox 12-19, the Orioles 10-21, the Pirates 10-21, and the Rockies 4-18.
It isn’t easy to turn a season around after a terrible start. Since MLB added a second-wild card ticket in each league in 2012, only three teams have rebounded from a 10-15 start (or worse) to make the playoffs:
2014 Pirates: 10-15, wildcard
2015 Rangers: 9-16, division champs
2024 Astros: 7-18, division champs
All three teams finished the regular season with 88 wins – which means each had a 78-59 record after the first 25 games.
For the 2025 Cardinals to reach 88 victories by the end of the regular season, they would have to go 57-50 (.533) in their remaining 107 games starting Wednesday. But there’s a lot of rain in the forecast for Baltimore, so hopefully the Cardinals and Orioles can complete their three-game series today.
INTEL ON ANDRE PALLANTE: The ground-baller grinded through 5 and ⅔ innings against the Orioles on Tuesday, trying to overcome six hits, three walks, a balk and a wild pitch. But Pallante’s attempt to dodge big trouble was ruined on a three-run homer by O’s designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn in the bottom of the 5th. The bomba put Baltimore ahead 4-3 and wiped out the Cards’ 3-0 lead. But Pallante’s teammates had his back and scored the final four runs in a rain-soaked evening of baseball.
The good stuff? Pallante notched seven strikeouts and induced 13 ground balls. The bad stuff? Pallante has walked just under 14 percent of his hitters faced over his last two starts and has a 4.96 ERA in his last eight starts.
The really bad stuff? In his last eight starts the right-handed Pallante has been smacked by right-swinging hitters for a .326 average, .389 onbase percentage, nine extra-base hits and a .547 slugging rate. Over that time, RH batters have pounded him for a 45 percent hard-hit rate, walked 10 percent of the time, and struck out in only 14.7 percent of their plate appearances.
So what’s the problem? Pallante’s four-seam fastball and sinkers are glaringly ineffective when used against RH batters. In his last eight starts, right-handed batters have torn into Pallante’s four-seamer and sinker for 21 hits in 56 at-bats (.375) for three doubles and three homers and a .767 slugging percentage. And his walk rate against them (8.2%) over the last eight starts is nearly the same as his strikeout rate (9.8%).
Opposing managers are doing the Cardinals and Pallante a merciful favor by declining to stack their lineup with right-handed batters. Eventually the other dugout will wake up and Pallante will become even more vulnerable than he is. At some point Michael McGreevy deserves to have an opportunity to start for the big club in St. Louis. So far this 2025 “runway” season doesn’t apply to McGreevy.
BULLPEN LOCKS IT DOWN: Excellent work in Tuesday’s late innings by relievers Steven Matz, Phil Maton and Ryan Helsley. They combined for 3 and ⅔ innings of shutout relief, giving up only two hits (and no walks) while striking out four Orioles. The bullpen has a 2.32 ERA during the Cardinals’ 17-5 run that’s given them the NL’s best record since May 4. And since Oli Marmol and pitching coach Dusty Blake reorganized the bullpen, St. Louis relievers have combined for a 2.73 ERA since April 25 – the second-best ERA in the majors during that time.
THE MARVELOUS MISTER MATZ: The lefty, who recorded four outs, was credited with Tuesday’s win. Matz has a 1.91 ERA this season in 15 appearances that include two starts. The Cardinals are 10-5 when Matz pitches in a game. And they are 8-2 in the last 10 games worked by Matz. He has a 1.69 ERA in the 10 games.
I’m out of words …
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on SportsHubSTL, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM, and he is a regular guest of “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by the fantastic Katie Woo of The Athletic.