Note to the dear readers: Every now and then I won’t be able to do a notes-driven, across the map, anything goes style of Breakfast with Bernie column. Today is one of those days. But I do have an informative column on the Nathan Church vs. Victor Scott II situation in center field. It’s something that I wanted to explore. I’ve tried to fill in some blanks and anticipate questions, so I hope you enjoy it. Thanks.
The Cardinals are making a change in center field, with Nathan Church trending up, and Victor Scott II moving down to Triple A Memphis.
Church is returning from the IL after dealing with a shoulder strain. Despite showing some recent improvement offensively, Scott must reset as a hitter and rebuild his overall offensive game after being used as a bunting specialist.
Let’s take a look at how going with Church could make a difference for the Cardinals.
1. Church has a lot more upside than Scott offensively. And that matters. With Scott handling 81 percent of the total plate appearances taken by Cardinal center fielders this season, the overall performance at the spot was an embarrassing 35 percent below league average offensively per wRC+. The Scott-led center field crew has collectively posted a .205 average, .276 on-base rate and .292 slugging percentage. Friends, this is a long way down from the glory days of Jim Edmonds.
2. What makes Church better than Scott offensively? I’ll call it the contact-quality gap. The difference between them in this crucial area is abundantly clear. Pardon me for getting wonky here, but two metrics show us all we need to know:
– Ideal Contact Rate, known as ICR: Church 38.3 percent, Scott 26.9%.
– Slugging Percentage on Contact, or SLGCON: Church .504, Scott .354.
– Based on quality of contact Church has far superior numbers to Scott in expected wOBA, expected batting average and expected slugging percentage. And Church has a sizable edge over Scott in barrel rate, hard-hit rate and connecting on the launch-angle sweet spot.
– Because Church hits the ball harder and at better launch angles, there is a power element to his game that Scott simply does not have. This is among the primary reasons why Church has a wRC+ that’s 31 percent above Scott’s. Church is 12% below league average offensively but that looks fabulous when we see Scott at 43% below average.
– Among Cardinals with a minimum 800 career plate appearances with St. Louis during the expansion era (1961-present) here are the team’s three worst hitters over the last 66 seasons based on wRC+:
* Dal Maxvill, 41% below league average.
* Mike Matheny, 36% below avg.
* Victor Scott, 36% below avg.
3. Church has a substantial weakness. He must fix it. This season Church ranks in the bottom one percent of MLB hitters with a 45.8 percent chase rate. That’s very, very poor. Church has given away too many at-bats with his largely unrestrained hacking at pitches out of the strike zone. (I’m sure the pitchers would thank him.)
Here’s what strike-zone judgment means to Church’s performance:
– Chasing non-strikes: 8 for 52 (.152), all singles, 5.1% hard-hit rate, no barrels, 30.5% whiff-swing rate, 25% strikeout rate.
– Swinging at strikes: 28 for 87 (.322), .563 slugging percentage, 47.4% hard-hit rate, 14.5% barrel rate, 18.3% whiff-swing rate, 14% strikeout rate – plus six doubles and five home runs.
Church must shrink his zone. The paradox of sorts: because Church can make contact with pitches way out of the zone, he doesn’t hesitate to swing and make contact on the junk pitches. The contact doesn’t matter in this instance because the results are so horrendous.
When a hitter chases pitches that he can’t barrel or hit hard, he’s eradicating his own power. And Nathan Church definitely has power. But by putting so many bad pitches in play, Church has a combined total of 31 ground balls, pop ups and weak fly balls when he pursues non-strikes.
4. Scott has the check mark over Church in some areas. First of all, unlike Church, Scott doesn’t chase many non-strikes (22%) and there’s nothing wrong with his plate discipline. Victor just doesn’t do much with a pitch when he makes contact. Scott has greater speed, but Church is plenty fast. Both are above-average fielders but Scott’s Fielding Run Value is about 20 percent higher. Scott has a slight edge over Church in Base Running Value, but the difference is negligible. Scott’s range is superior, but I believe Church will flash more range by playing center. Church undoubtedly has a stronger and more accurate arm.
5. Church and Scott share an unusual attribute: Both of these left-handed hitters do well against lefty pitchers. We’re talking about a small sample size here. But this season Scott is 15 for 52 (.288) vs. LHP, and Church is even better at 10 for 32 (.313.)
OK, so what’s next for Victor Scott?
Two things come to mind:
– Change his mentality at the plate. He has to put this debilitating bunting mindset away. He has a slow bat but he must swing harder, attack, and try to hit some dang line drives.
– Put up real numbers. Before he can get another chance to prove himself as a big-league hitter, Scott must prove himself as a Triple A hitter. I’m not saying this to be flippant; I’m saying this because it’s true. In his only season at Triple A (2024) Scott batted .210 with a .597 OPS.
– Rebuild his stolen-base game. Compared to 2025, Scott’s stolen-base success rate declined by 20 percent for the Cardinals in 2026.
What’s next for Nathan Church?
– Stop chasing. Understand what pitchers are trying to do to him. Because they’ll keep doing it until he proves he won’t keep hacking.
If you look at pitch-tracking data, most of his out-of-zone swings are clustered in these areas:
* Down and away. Taking the bait on changeups and sliders.
* Down and in. Pitchers attack this area with a lot of sinkers. The heatmaps show a bright red cluster of swings on sinkers that travel inside and off the plate, cuffing his hands. There isn’t a hole in his swing. It’s more of a discipline issue and a problem recognizing horizontal movement.
Bottom line: Church must force pitchers to deal with him in the strike zone. Do that and his power will recharge.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.