The Cardinals had a 23-19 record and a nine-game winning streak as they came out of the rain to play the Phillies in Wednesday’s soggy doubleheader.
Before the start of the first game, the Cards were 13-4 since April 25, and 11-2 after winning two games at Cincinnati on April 30. That was encouraging because the Redbirds had their share of troubles over the first six weeks.
The bullpen required extensive reshuffling. Alec Burleson, Masyn Winn, and Willson Contreras got off to cold starts offensively before cranking up.
Through Monday, Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman had combined for a .177 batting average, a wan .266 slugging percentage, and just three home runs in 192 at-bats.
The Cards also had to go without one of their top hitters, Ivan Herrera, who missed 30 games with a knee ailment.
These disappointing developments and trends were offset by some unexpectedly good performances that materialized over the first 42 games.
This column was written before the Cardinals lost 2-1 to the Phillies in the first of two games today.
In no particular order, here’s my list of STL’s nicest surprises in the early-season phase of 2025:
VICTOR SCOTT: It’s been a pleasure to watch him perform so well in all areas: offense, defense, baserunning, small ball. The second-year center fielder, 24, is one of the top young players in the game.
I’ll update a stat I showed you a couple of weeks ago. And I use the Baseball Reference version of WAR for this because I prefer the way “BR” evaluates defensive play.
Heading into Wednesday, Scott’s 1.7 bWAR was tied with Juan Soto, Kyle Schwarber 20th among non-pitchers. And that 1.7 bWAR was more than Kyle Tucker and Mookie Betts. And among position players age 24 or younger, Scott ranks tied for third in bWAR behind Pete Crow-Armstrong, Andy Pages and Corbin Carroll.
Through Monday Scott had a .288 average, .355 onbase percentage and .755 OPS. He was also rated as MLB’s third-best center fielder defensively in defensive runs saved (7) and outs above average (5.) He’s also swiped 11 bases in 12 attempts, and is tied for 15th in the majors in overall baserunning value.
Scott’s total game is impressive. And he’s still learning in the major-league school of higher education.
MILES MIKOLAS: In his second start of the season, in Boston, Mikolas was wiped out in 2 and ⅔ innings, getting annihilated for 11 hits and eight earned runs while retiring only eight hitters. At that point, his ERA since the start of the 2023 season was 5.17, which ranked 75th among 76 MLB starting pitchers that worked at least 150 innings over that time. Bad. Real bad.
After that fusilade at Fenway Park, Mikolas has provided good work for the Cardinals, pitching to a nifty 2.59 ERA. Mikolas rarely goes deep into games, as manager Oli Marmol wisely protects him from facing the other team’s lineup for a third time in a game – especially if the opponent has left-handed hitters due up.
OK, but should we really nitpick Mikolas when we’re seeing him do much better than expected? I say that as a persistent critic of the Cardinals for staying with Mikolas over his two consecutive seasons of terrible pitching.
Since getting smashed by the Red Sox on April 6, Mikolas has pitched well during his six-start turnaround that began April 12. And his improvement has influenced the overall performance of the Cards rotation. Since April 12, the Redbirds rank 7th among the 30 teams with a starting-pitching ERA of 3.20. And through Tuesday they were tied for 3rd with 14 quality starts and rank fifth in FanGraphs WAR.
Mikolas is in the top 25 percent of major-league pitchers for breaking-ball value, but doesn’t get many whiff-swings or strikeouts. He’s aided by an excellent defense and a baseball that isn’t traveling as far in the air this season. I’ll explain that another time, but the overall MLB rate this season shows a decrease in fly-ball distance. And that matters because Mikolas currently has his highest fly-ball rate (43.4%) and lowest ground-ball rate (38%) in a major-league season. That’s something to keep an eye on.
KYLE LEAHY: Late last season, and into the offseason, I wrote about Leahy’s underrated pitching performance in 2024. I already had a positive view of his work, but I’m surprised to see Leahy emerge as one of the best relievers in the majors this season.
And Leahy definitely qualifies for the “best in the show” list for 2025. According to Statcast, Leahy ranks among the top two percent of MLB pitchers in Pitching Run Value.
Leahy has used an expansive and unmerciful six-pitch variety pack of pitches to sculpt a 1.07 ERA in 19 appearances. He throws the four-seam fastball, the slider, the changeup, the curve, and the sweeper. The only batting average above .186 against his assortment is the .235 BA on the four-seam fastball. How do opposing hitters know what to expect from Leahy from pitch to pitch? Well, they don’t.
When Leahy pitches late in games this season, he has an 0.43 ERA when working from the seventh inning on. Needless to say, that’s exceptional.
There is no platoon-split advantage for opponents when they encounter Leahy. And that sets up opposing managers for failure. (Ask Phillies manager Rob Thomson, who thought it was best to send up some left-handed pinch-hitters to win the battle against Leahy earlier this week. Wrong. In Monday’s 3-2 win for St. Louis, Philadelphia’s LH batters went 0 for 8 with two strikeouts during his 2 and ⅔ innings.
Though Leahy throws with his right arm, left-handed hitters are 2 for 31 against him (.065) this season. (He’s more careful when facing LH bats and he’s pitched around some walks.)
Right-handed hitters can’t break through against Leahy either; they’re batting only .140 against him. Overall, Leahy has been barely scratched by opponents for a .111 batting average and a harmless .389 OPS.
The durable Leahy went into Wednesday in a tie for third among all MLB relievers for most innings pitched. He’s worked more than an inning in eight of his 19 appearances, and that endurance enhances Leahy’s value.
The Cardinals went into Wednesday’s doubleheader with 23 wins, and Leahy provided relief in 12 of the victories. When Leahy appears in a game won by the Cards this season, he’s given up only one earned run and seven hits for an 0.60 ERA. And opponents have batted .137 against him in those situations.
As I’ve mentioned, I like to look at the Win Probability Added metric as a way to evaluate relievers. Does the reliever help you win? Is he neutral? Or is he a liability? That’s what WPA is all about.
Leahy has the highest WPA by a National League reliever this season and ranks third overall in the majors. He’s also first in the NL and second overall for WAR calculated by runs allowed.
Not bad for a 17th-round draft choice who was dropped from the 40-man roster a few years ago.
MATTHEW LIBERATORE: I was happy when the Cardinals surprised us by including “Libby” in their five-man (and at times, six-man) rotation for 2025. He earned the opportunity with a dazzling performance in spring training.
Liberatore’s talent has always been there, but his career was disrupted by the Cardinals’ indecisiveness on how to use him: starter? Reliever? Both? They finally committed – 100 percent – to Liberatore as a starter, and that move gave him the conscience and focus he needed to aggressively go after hitters.
The result? Libby is one of the top left-handed starters in the majors so far in 2025.
– 2nd with a 2.30 fielding-independent ERA (aka FIP.)
– 2nd for the best strikeout-walk ratio.
– Tied for 4th with five quality starts.
– 5th in fWAR at 1.5
– 3rd for lowest home-run rate; he’s faced 184 hitters and has given up two.
– 11th in strikeout rate (22.8%) and 13th in standard ERA (3.11).
Before this season, Liberatore was terribly ineffective vs. right-handed batters. The “new” Libby isn’t that vulnerable lefty. This season RH bats have a .226 average and .328 slugging percentage against him.
WILLSON CONTRERAS: Do you remember all of the Chicken Littles clucking about the decision to transfer Contreras from catcher to first base? Yeah, I heard the squawking. I wanted to give Contreras a chance instead of immediately racing to condemn the move in that bastion of highly intellectual baseball commentary on “X.” Contreras has a lot of pride, he’s an honorable man, and I knew he’d work hard to make it a successful conversion.
In 31 games at first base through Monday, Contreras had been credited with one defensive run saved, which was tied for 7th in the majors at the position. In his Statcast range rating – outs above average – Contreras was tied for second among first basemen with +2 OAA. That’s a really nice start for WC at his new spot.
But wait a minute. The Cardinals would suffer defensively at first base this season without Paul Goldschmidt in place. Right? How come you don’t talk about that, Bernie?
Two reasons (1) Goldschmidt is a Yankee, and I’m not sure why this means I should obsess over what he’s doing as a Yankee. And (2) Goldy has a slightly negative rating this season in both defensive runs saved and outs above average. And actually there’s a third reason: Contreras volunteered to play first base, and was enthusiastic about it. He’s no Rafael Devers, pouting and sulking because the Red Sox asked him to change positions.
WC’s defense at first has been a pleasant surprise. But I am not surprised that he went into Wednesday with a .327 batting average and a booming .548 slug and .970 OPS in his last 29 games – making an emphatic rebound from his slow start.
YOHEL POZO: Candidly, I’d never heard of the dude before the Cardinals summoned this 27-year old catcher from Triple A Memphis in early April to fill in for the injured Ivan Herrera. Pozo can hit! He had strong slugging numbers in the minors. And in his first 42 at-bats for the Cardinals through Monday, Pozo was hitting .333 with a .349 OBP and .476 slug. His OPS+ made Pozo 30 percent above league average offensively. He provides solid defense and brings a lively personality to the locker room. If the Cardinals are smart, they’ll keep Pozo in place as a good No. 2 catcher, continue to start Pedro Pages, and give most of their DH at-bats to Herrera. Doing that maximizes the defense at catcher and the offense at DH.
HONORABLE MENTION: Steven Matz in his value as a reliever and starter … the effective starting pitching that brought the 10th-best MLB rotation ERA (3.70) into Wednesday … Oli Marmol going with Lars Nootbaar at leadoff … Jordan Walker’s defense in right field … Pedro Pages throwing out 33 percent of the runners trying to steal a base on him – which is 10 percent above the league average for caught-stealing rate … the early promise shown by rookie reliever Gordon Graceffo … Nootbaar staying healthy (cross fingers) … Mark Sweeney is an excellent and intelligent baseball analyst, and it’s been wonderfully surprising to have him in the TV booth.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting. You can access all of his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on SportsHubSTL, catch him weekdays on the “Gashouse Gang” or “Redbird Rush Hour” on KMOX (104.1-FM and 1120-AM, and he is a regular guest of “Cardinal Territory” video show hosted by the great Katie Woo of The Athletic.