Note from Bernie: Good day to ya. This review was filed earlier than usual because of Wednesday’s scheduled early start (12:15 p.m.) for the series decider between the Cards and Mets at Busch Stadium.
What’s at stake: A series triumph is on the line. The Mets won Monday’s opener (4-2) before the Cardinals responded with a 3-0 shutout victory in the second game. A Wednesday win would polish up a 4-2 record for the Cards vs. the Rays and Mets in STL’s first homestand of the 2026 season. A loss means a 3-3 record for the home team. That’s OK, but I think we agree that a 4-2 mark looks better and is better.
Hot and cold randomness: The Rays and Cardinals combined for an average of 15 runs per game in their three-game set. Through the first two games of the current series, the Cards and Mets have combined for an average of 4.5 runs per competition. Many cycles during a 162-game season.
Opening Note: More than anything, I will remember the first homestand of the 2026 season for one reason.
JJ Wetherholt.
I don't even need to go into the details and relive the best scenes in the new drama. But what an introduction. The beginning of a beautiful relationship between player, franchise and fan base.
BIRD BYTES
1. For the first time this season, pitching carried the Cardinals to victory on Tuesday. Starter Andre Pallante and a carousel of four relievers blanked the Mets for nine innings, and the visitors scrounged for 3 hits in 29 at-bats (.103). Juan Soto had two hits but the other Mets went 1 for 25. It’s difficult for me to crab about the pitching in the first two games as a whole; Cardinal pitchers were mussed for only four runs in 18 innings.
2. In his 5+ innings, Pallante used a five-pitch assortment to keep the Mets off balance. He threw a lot of four-seam fastballs to New York’s left-handed hitters; the Mets swung at 10 of the heaters and hit four of them hard. But Pallante was able to get a bunch of called strikes on the four-seamer, so no harm done. The big change was Pallante’s aggressive use of his reshaped sinker against right-handed batters. He got a 36 percent chase rate on the sinker and the Mets did little against it – just two balls in play, and both were in soft-contact kisses. Pallante went with the slider 31% of the time and both left-handed hitters and right-handed batters couldn’t square it up. Pallante got swing-and-miss outcomes five times on New York’s 12 swings against that slider. His dosage also included the knuckle curve and the occasional splitter.
3. The St. Louis starting pitchers did pretty well in the first turn of the rotation. At least in terms of bottom-line runs allowed.
In 16 combined innings Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy and Pallante were nicked for just one run and 10 hits but did walk seven.
Kyle Leahy worked more effectively than his pitching line indicated; he was solid for five innings before tiring in the 6th after staying in the game to build stamina.
The only big disappointment was Dustin May, who got slapped around by the Rays on Sunday for 10 hits and six runs in four innings.
4. There was, however, a glaring issue: McGreevy was the only starter who put away hitters via strikeouts with any regularity, posting a punch-out rate of 23.8 percent against the Rays. The other four starters – unbelievably – combined to strike out only 9 of 91 batters faced. That’s a sad strikeout rate of 9.8%, and going into Wednesday’s game the St. Louis starters were tied for the worst strikeout rate (12.5%) in the majors. The underlying vulnerability can’t be ignored.
5. The Cardinals bullpen settled down. Well, at least on Monday and Tuesday. I can’t speak of Wednesday's game because it hasn’t happened yet. But after going up in flames against Tampa Bay (10.38 ERA), the relievers kept things calm in the first two games against the Mets. They worked eight innings without allowing a run, and only one inherited runner scored. Matt Svanson and George Soriano each went two innings Monday to keep the game close and give the Cards hitters a chance to make a comeback. (Did not happen.) And in Tuesday’s win manager Oli Marmol got one inning of scoreless relief from four relievers: Gordon Graceffo, Ryne Stanek, JoJo Romero and Riley O’Brien. Another bullpen blowup could have caused a late loss, but the four relievers clamped down and protected leads of 2-0 and 3-0.
6. An early-season narrative that I find somewhat annoying. We keep hearing about the poor batted-ball luck endured by the Cardinals’ pitchers. I get the point. I’ve been citing batting average on balls in play for many years in my work. Through the first five games of the season, St. Louis pitchers (starters and relievers) allowed more batted balls in play than all but two NL teams.
Well, why is that? Through March 31, among the 30 MLB pitching staffs, the Cardinals ranked 29th in swing-miss rate (8.2%) and were dead last with a 13.2% strikeout rate. The starters and relievers were both at fault in this important area. The Cards starters rank 30th in swing-miss rate and are tied for 29th in strikeout rate. The relievers are 27th in swing-miss rate and last in strikeout rate.
Gotta miss more bats than that, OK? The biggest problem isn’t bad luck. The biggest problem (at least this early) is the STL pitchers’ obvious shortage of swing-miss, strikeout, and wipeout stuff.
7. Masyn Winn batting fourth: I don’t get a pain in my brain or posterior over lineup cards. I make one exception: the leadoff spot, because I adamantly believe that a high on-base percentage should be the top priority for a leadoff hitter. But other than that … the Cardinals have played only five games, going on six. And Winn is still listed as the No. 4 hitter today against the Mets.
Unless there’s an upturn in results for Winn as the cleanup batter, I don’t think Oli Marmol will stick with this much longer. (Read extensive comments from Marmol on this in my Tuesday column.) I don’t mind weird little curiosities in the lineup from time to time, and there’s nothing wrong with experimenting with different lineup looks.
That said…
Since the start of last season Winn has taken 33 plate appearances as the No. 4 hitter. (You know about the sample sizes.) He hasn’t done much at a key position in the lineup.
Before Wednesday’s game, here’s what Winn had produced as the No. 4 hitter:
– .167 average
– .242 on-base rate
– .233 slugging percentage
– .476 OPS.
– No RBIs
– 0 for 10 with runners in scoring position.
Per wRC+, Winn’s mini-sample performance as the cleanup guy is 58 percent below league average offensively.
Final Thoughts, related to Tuesday’s win: Good to see Ivan Herrera heating up … Welcome back to the Cardinals, Ramon Urias … Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker were a combined 0 for 8 with four strikeouts in Game 2 against the Mets. What did it mean? Nothing really. Check back in about 10 days, two weeks … catcher Pedro Pages is off to a nice start at the plate, putting up an .818 OPS through Tuesday and delivering a wRC+ that was 31 percent above league average offensively … despite two relatively quiet games against the Mets, the Cardinals entered Wednesday ranked among the top 10 in the majors in runs, batting average, slugging percentage, homers, isolated power, and OPS. But yeah, the Redbirds need to pick it up … Outfielder Nelson Velazquez is off to a bad start at Triple A Memphis: heading into Wednesday the right-handed hitter was 1 for 11 with five strikeouts and two walks.
Thanks for reading …
Please pardon my typos ...
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.