BERNIE’S PREDICTIONS FOR THE CFP QUARTERFINALS
OHIO STATE (12-1) vs. MIAMI (11-2)
What: Cotton Bowl Classic at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Tex.
When: Wednesday, Dec. 31, 6:30 p.m. STL time, on ESPN
DraftKings point spread: Ohio State by 9.5
MoneyLine: Miami +285, Ohio State minus 360
Over/Under Total: 42.5 points
Analysis: Miami has a physical running game and a bruising defense that can put the smack on Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin. The Buckeyes will have to work hard for points. Turnovers figure to be especially important in this one. But here’s my No. 1 question in this matchup: can Miami score enough to ambush The No. 2 team in the nation? I have my doubts. Ohio State’s defense is ranked 5th in EPA for rushing yards allowed, No. 1 in EPA per pass dropback against, No. 7 nationally in quality-drive percentage allowed, and No. 3 in average points allowed (2.08) on quality drives. The Buckeyes are also rated No. 2 on defense in third-fourth down situations … Miami’s defense doesn’t allow a lot of quality drives – but when it happens, the opponent usually finds a way to cap it off with a score. The Hurricanes rank 39th in average points yielded (3.18) on quality drives. Despite his big-game experience, Miami QB Carson Beck makes too many careless mistakes and the Hurricanes struggle to finish off quality possessions. If the Buckeyes can prevent Miami RB Mark Fletcher from doing the runaway train thing, it will put intense pressure on Beck.
CFB Graphs projection: 46.4 points scored by both teams (combined) and Ohio State with 27.05 points to Miami’s 19.31 points.
CFB Graphs win probability: Ohio State 64%.
Interesting betting angles courtesy of VSIN: The Buckeyes 2-0 against the spread under coach Ryan Day when coming off a game in which they scored 14 or fewer points. After losing to Indiana in the B1G championship, Day will have his offense revving to go … Applicable trends: Under Day, the Buckeyes are 8-4 against the spread as favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 25-13-2 ATS when facing teams with winning percentages of 75% or higher. And Miami is 1-3 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points under coach Mario Cristobal. The Hurricanes are also 0-4 ATS coming off an upset win as an underdog, 3-10 ATS off a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better, and 3-7 ATS when facing teams with winning percentages of 75% or higher.
Berrnie’s Pick: Ohio State hasn’t given up more than 16 points in a game this season. Miami has permitted 22 or more points in four games. Last week the ‘Canes took advantage of an extremely poor performance by the panicky and confused Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed. I don’t think they can count on that happening against Sayin, who consistently makes smart decisions and very rarely shows signs of distress. I’m going with Ohio State to win the game and cover the 9.5. But ... that would be Miami's track to a victory -- cranking up a nasty pass rush to prevent Sayin to have the time to find open receivers. And receivers will be opemn. A lot of folks seem to believe that Miami will pull off the upset – but ignore the Mario Cristobal Factor at your own risk. Big Ten teams are on an extended run of success in bowl games, going 43-12 straight up and 38-16-1 ATS as a bowl game favorite of 2 points or more dating back to 2007. And Miami is a hideous 3-13 straight up and against the spread in bowl games since 2005.
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OREGON (12-1) vs. TEXAS TECH (11-2)
What: The Orange Bowl, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL.
When: Thursday, Jan. 1 at 11 a.m. STL time, on ESPN
DraftKings point spread: Oregon by 2.5 points, but I’ve seen the line at Oregon by 1.5 points at other spots.
MoneyLine: Oregon minus 130, Texas Tech +110
Over/Under Total: 52.5 points
Analysis: Both of these teams come into this fight with tough defenses, but the edge in that particular battle goes to Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are No. 1 nationally in rushing defense EPA, 2nd in dropback pass defense, 1st in quality-drive percentage allowed (21%), 1st in EPA defense on early downs, and 4th in defense on third and fourth downs. Opponents have converted only 29.7 percent of those third-fourth downs against the Tech defense, which ranks 3rd in defensive success rate overall. That said, I do believe that Oregon has the better quarterback in this game in Dante Moore, who could be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. But after taking a deep dive into the metrics, I will also say this: this season Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton graded out higher than I expected.
CFB Graphs projection: 47.4 points scored by both teams, with Texas Tech projected to score an average of 26.16 points compared to Oregon’s average of 21.27 projected points.
CFB Graphs win probability: Texas Tech, 59%
Random key stat to watch for: Texas Tech’s offense is not good on early downs, ranking 119th among FBS teams in average third-down distance of 7.66 yards. And that number came against loose Big 12 defenses. That could put the Red Raiders in difficult spots for moving the chains … then again, Oregon’s defense is surprisingly vulnerable on third and fourth downs, ranking 50th in preventing first downs in those situations.
Interesting betting angles courtesy of VSIN: Coach Joey McGuire’s Tech team has won its last six games both straight up and ATS. And over the six games the team’s defense allowed an average of 7.2 points per game and ran up an average victory margin of 33.7 points. Wait; there's more.
* Oregon is 7-6 ATS this season. Texas Tech is 11-2 ATS
* Oregon is 6-6 ATS as a betting favorite; Tech is 1-0 as an underdog.
* When favored to win on the road or on neutral field, Oregon is 2-2 ATS, and Tech is 1-0.
* When facing an opponent that's won at least 70% of its games, Oregon is 4-3 ATS and Tech is 4-1 ATS.
* When playing an opponent that's allowed an average of under 25 points per game, Oregon is 5-5 ATS, and Tech is 4-1 ATS.
Bernie’s Pick: I have to say something about this matchup: I can't make up my mind in picking the winner. I keep swaying and forth. And no wonder! If we go by Bill Connelly’s respected SP+ ratings system, Texas Tech is No. 3 in the nation, one spot ahead of Oregon. Jeff Sagarin has Oregon at No. 3 and Texas Tech at No. 5. Sagarin's strength of schedule ratings offer a huge gap between these squads: by his analysis, Oregon has faced the 11th toughest sked this season and Texas Tech's SOS is #66. However ... Sagarin, in his metrics based on "strong" recent trends, had Texas Tech as the No. 1 team on the land. (I have a headache). The Red Raiders were an underdog just once this season, and blew out Utah 34-10. They also routed BYU in two separate games including the Big 12 title match. Tech’s one loss occurred when Morton, the starting quarterback, missed the game because of injury. Other than that, Texas Tech’s next closest game was a win by a 22-point margin. I respect Oregon, but their best victories of the season came against an overrated Penn State team (in overtime) and a quality win at Iowa. II don't have a lot of confidence here, but if I had to make a bet, I'd take the points and grab I’ll Texas Tech plus the 2.5.
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ALABAMA (11-3) vs INDIANA (13-0)
What: The Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Cal.
When: Thursday, Jan. 1 at 3 p.m. STL time on ESPN.
DraftKings point spread: Indiana is a 7-point favorite.
MoneyLine: Alabama +210, Indiana minus 258.
Over/Under Total: 49.5 points.
Analysis: I’m going to do some typing here. I must remove an irritant from my consciousness. I must vent. Hear me roar. I know that Alabama is a college football blueblood, with a brand name that has resonated through the decades. But I’ve been surprised by the generous (almost goddy) display of Bama love by the professional wagering colony that publishes their picks. Many of these same people view Indiana as some type of streaking comet that soon will disappear from view – with the Hoosier football program fading into the familiar place of college football’s black hole of losing seasons. These outright dismissals of Indiana’s strength are comical.
I’m not sure what I’m missing here. In coach Curt Cignetti’s first season, Indiana moved up in class twice and lost road games to Ohio State and Notre Dame – the teams that eventually clashed in the national title game won by the Buckeyes. No shame there. In his second season, Cignetti doused the skepticism with a perfect 13-0 regular season, going on the road to take down Oregon and knocking off the defending-champion Buckeyes in the B1G championship bout. Nicely done.
In two seasons at Indiana – which was buried in the Big Ten cellar for decades – Cignetti is 24-2 after taking over a chronic loser of a program that had a 33-39 record under previous coach Tom Allen. And the Indiana coach before that, Kevin Wilson, had a 26-47 mark. Meanwhile, Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer inherited Nick Saban’s built-to-win program and is 20-7 in his two seasons at Tuscaloosa. Cignetti had to rebuild a sorrowful Big Ten punching bag on the fly. DeBoer inherited a throne, an empire, created by Bear Bryant and revived by Nick Saban.
Knowing that, why have so many snickering experts hopped on the Alabama bandwagon? Moreover, it was Cignetti – not DeBoer – who actually coached for Saban at Alabama and learned a great deal from one of the true masters of program building in college football history.
The Hoosiers have the nation’s No. 2 scoring defense, ceding 10.8 points per game. And their quarterback, Fernando Mendoza, is the Heisman Trophy winner. Sure, it’s kind of weird to see Indiana as a 7-point favorite – given Alabama’s royal pedigree – but there are reasons for that. But I keep hearing things like this. A clown on TV pointed out that Indiana may have defeated Ohio State, but scored only 13 points. WHAT? Yeah, because the Hoosiers were playing the defending national champs, OHIO STATE. So we're supposed to downgrade that victory just because Indiana "failed" to pile up 25 points? Look, I'm an SEC fan ... but this crap is ridiculous.
In pitching a second-half shutout in the B1G championship, the Hoosiers held Ohio State to only 58 rushing yards for the entire game to win by three. And now that same Indiana defense gets a chance to erect a wall against an Alabama offense that has strained to run the ball effectively all season – a glaring weakness that was revealed during a 28-7 beatdown by Georgia in the SEC title fight.
This season Alabama ranks 72nd in success rate when running the football … and the Indiana defense is No. 3 in the nation at limiting the success rate when opponents run at the Hoosier defense. And if Indiana can shut down Bama’s ground game, Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson will be swarmed by the Indiana pass rush.
Going by virtually every 2025 college-football metric in existence, Indiana is significantly better than Alabama on both sides of the ball – plus special teams. A big part of Indiana’s game is establishing control of field position. Of course, nothing is guaranteed when two good teams go at it. But Indiana is playing the 2025 version of Alabama.
And yes, it’s important to remember that it’s 2025 – and this game will actually be played on the first day of 2026. The point is, Indiana isn’t going up against one of those great Alabama legacy teams coached by the iconic Bryant or Saban. The Hoosiers are playing against a Bama team coached by DeBoer. He’s a damn good coach … but he’s also the same coach that a large percentage of “better call Pawl” Alabama fans wanted to fire after each of the Tide’s three losses this season. While Alabama deserves a ton of credit for erasing a 17-point deficit at Oklahoma for a comeback victory in the CFP opening round, I didn’t see that as a transformational win.
Interesting betting angles courtesy of VSIN: favorites are on a 15-3 straight up and 12-6 ATS run in the last 18 Rose Bowl games. Favorites are also on a 27-9 gallop straight up and 24-12 ATS in the playoffs and the other six highest-level bowl games. SEC teams have lost the last three bowl games when going in as underdogs by 7+ points. And in those three losses, the SEC representatives were outscored 114-40 count.
CFB Graphs projection: 48.7 total points scored by the two teams. Alabama is projected to score 19.87 points. Indiana is projected to score 28.79 points.
CFB Graphs win probability: Indiana 65.9%
Bernie’s Pick: According to CFB Graphs, the Hoosiers are first in the nation in EPA per play on offense, and fourth in EPA per play allowed. As analyst Zachary Cohen noted, that fits the historical profile of a national title winner. I do believe that Alabama has a good chance to cover the point spread – among other qualities, this team plays very good pass defense – so I’m going with Indiana on the MoneyLine. In Connelly’s SP+ ratings, Indiana is ranked at No. 2, and Alabama is No. 15. Indiana is for real. This ain’t Norman Dale at Hickory High, OK? Indiana is my pick to cover here, and this selection is also the weekly Bernie Guarantee sponsored by St. Louis Hot Tub Warehouse.
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GEORGIA (12-1) vs OLE MISS (12-1)
What: The Sugar Bowl in New Orleans.
When: Thursday, Jan. 1 at 7 p.m. STL time, on ESPN.
DraftKings point spread: Georgia is favored by 6.5 points
MoneyLine: Ole Miss +200, Georgia minus 245
Over/Under Total: 55.5 points
Analysis: Ole Miss played with edge and energy after their head coach (Lane Kiffin) ran off to Baton Rouge to become the new LSU coach. Sure, the Rebels beat up on the same Tulane team (41-10) that it punched out during the regular season, but the first-round showing was impressive. Ole Miss wasn’t distracted, wasn’t disappointed. Ole Miss wanted to prove a point: we lost our coach, but we didn’t lose our way. We can do this. And the squad delivered the message, rolling to 497 yards behind quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy. But now Mississippi must find a way to get past Georgia … the same Georgia team that Ole Miss led by nine after three quarters during the regular-season conflict in Athens. The same Georgia team that raged back to pummel Ole Miss 17-0 in a ferocious fourth-quarter comeback. Since trailing the Rebels after that 3rd quarter, Georgia won that game and six more and outscored opponents by 126 points.
I think that stirring triumph was the turning point for coach Kirby Smart’s team, which (by the program’s standards) started slowly this season. The Bulldogs allowed just 11.3 points per game since beating Ole Miss 43-35. And UGA’s defense was even more rigid down the stretch, allowing an average of just 7.3 points over the past four games. Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton continues to combine big-play strikes with smooth efficiency; in the late-season wins over Texas and Alabama, the QB flipped seven touchdown passes and with one interception. Georgia peaked at the right time and absolutely looks like a team that has a strong chance of winning it all.
Interesting betting angles, courtesy of VSIN: In “revenge” games in a rematch with the team it lost to earlier in the season, Ole Miss is 16-21 straight up and 13-22 ATS (37.1%) since 2016 … the Kirby Smart vs. Pete Golding coaching matchup is highly unusual because the Ole Miss playoff win over Tulane was Golding's first game as a head coach at any level. Kirby Smart has won 137 games and and sculpted an .854 winning percentage in his 10 season's as UGA's head coach. Smart has taken the Bulldogs to three national championship games -- losing the first one, then winning the next two. He has also won two national championships. In Georgia's last nine seasons, Smart is 40-14 (.741) against ranked opponents.
Here’s some relevant info: Since 2016, in bowl games that match a coach that has at least 10 bowl games against a coach with lesser experience, the more experienced coach is 44-27 straight up and 45-25-1 ATS (64.3%) … if you’re concerned that 6.5 points is too large of a spread in this Sugar Bowl matchup then take this into consideration: the outright winners are 24-1-1 ATS in the Super Bowl since 2000.
CFB Graphs projection: 52.4 total points scored by the two teams. Georgia is projected to score 27.79 points; the Ole Miss projection is 24.6 points. More on that in a few moments …
CFB Graphs win probability: Georgia 55.9%.
Bernie’s Pick: Going by the projected points total for each team, maybe this game could be closer than anticipated. But Georgia has gotten better and better. I don’t know if we can say the same about Ole Miss, especially after Kiffin walked away. If Kiffin couldn't beat Smart this season despite holding a big lead through three quarters -- then why would we believe Pete Golding can stage an upset win? I’ll go with Georgia and lay the 6.5.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach.
Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil.
Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues and Mizzou football and basketball.
Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows.
And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.