This is a public service announcement: beginning tonight (March 16) you will have 10 more evenings of sleep. After that 10th slumber, you will rise from catching some Z’s, getting the shuteye, sleeping like a baby and recharging the ol’ batteries … and it will be Opening Day!
Tampa Bay Rays, St. Louis Cardinals, Busch Stadium. Send in the Clydesdales. I want to sign up for that promotional program where I can pay $29 for a game ticket, and enjoy an unlimited amount of guaranteed runs scored by the Cardinals. Is that still available?
The Cardinals did not participate in Grapefruit League action today, so it’s a swell time to hit a volley of fungo opinions to the darling readers. This here will be a brisk recap. It’s too early for a nightcap. That comes later, after I’m finished typing and yapping for the day.
Before I get started, I must submit the standard caveats that are mandatory when discussing spring-training performance.
A) These are all small samples because spring training is a small sample, so I don’t know why I must always issue these small-sample warning reminders. My readers are intelligent. It’s not like Cardinals spring training is some sort of new activity that’s never happened before. I mean, when Cardinal ancestors set up in their first Florida-based spring training in 1914, down there in St. Augustine, did the townsfolk feel obligated to crab out "That's a SMALL SAMPLE, it’s meaningless, so don’t get carried away!” when the team’s fans applauded Redbird Cozy Dolan for slashing a double down the left-field line? I mean, if you can’t talk about how a hitter is lookin’ good at the plate, or express a positive opinion about the pitcher mowing down ‘dem hitters, if you can’t just enjoy what you’re watching … then why are you pretending to be a baseball fan? You’re not. The small-sample police are out of control and must be stopped.
B) Along the same lines, when I point to a player’s impressive collection of springtime statistics and identify the markers that explain the reasons for his improvement … Well, it does not mean I’m predicting that he’ll go into the regular season and lead the National League in home runs and RBIs and will be flirting with a .400 batting average in mid-September. The regular season doesn’t have a gosh-dang thing to do with the Grapefruit League juice. But let me mention Nolan Gorman’s improved plate discipline, and I get six Tweets in 30 seconds informing me it doesn’t count, because it’s spring training and the only thing that counts is what he’ll do, or not do, during the regular season. What? I didn’t know that. I’ll be damned. Thank you very much, Branch Rickey, for generously imparting such impressive knowledge. I’ve only been watching baseball – as in being old enough to understand it – since 1966, so I really am trying to catch up. Four balls means a walk, and it’s three strikes and you're out. Is that correct? And in baseball a hit-and-run isn’t a crime? Is that correct? I’m still trying to learn these things.
C) OK, sorry. I’m being annoying now … I’m being a nag. So I’ll just shut up and get on with today’s bidness.
SPRING TRAINING, 2026
PROGRESS REPORT
PART ONE: THE GOOD THANGS
In no particular order …
1) Pitch, pitch, pitch: The Cardinals haven’t had this many talented, capable arms in spring training for a long time. It isn’t a shining-star group of starters. But I’m confident the 2026 Cardinals will have something that the 2025 rotation never did: plenty of depth, plenty of options. Depending on how a few individuals come along with their injury rehabs, the pool of starting pitchers available to the ‘26 Cardinals could run as deep as nine or 10 slingers.
2) Nelson Velazquez. As the late broadcaster Keith Jackson would say when Herschel Walker broke off a long run for Georgia: “Whoa, Nellie!” Velazquez is lining up as the team’s early-season starter in left field. It’s been interesting for me to monitor the reaction to the “V” man’s power-hitting spree; there seems to be an assumption that he’s just some nondescript guy who is randomly having two-three good weeks in the Grapefruit League. No, sorry, that’s not right. Velazquez has always had the power. From 2022 through 2024, among MLB hitters that had at least 600 plate appearances over that time, Velazquez is in the 73rd percentile in slugging percentage. (Translation: that’s good … perhaps even very good.) He hit a home run every 9.5 at-bats for the Cubs and Royals in 22023. (Best in the majors). Among batsmen with at least 170 plate appearances in 2023, Velazquez ranked sixth overall with a .586 slug. His career spiraled because of extreme plate-discipline negativity. But Velazquez reset with a season in Mexico, and the result is a 15.4% walk rate and tiny 7.7% strikeout rate this spring.
After so many careless whiff-swings and strikeouts, Velazquez seems to have figured it out at age 27. This has reactivated his power because the enhanced plate discipline means he’s locked in on murdering strikes. If his good new habits hold up, then watch out. His power is real. But Velazquez can’t tap into it if he’s swinging at mush out of the strike zone.
This spring Velazquez has a low 21% “chase” rate and is swinging and connecting on 79 percent of the strikes thrown his way. With the walks and the pop, that’s why we’re seeing a .333 average, .436 on-base percentage and .729 slug from him this spring. He has four homers and five of his 11 hits have flown for extra bases. Per wRC+ Velasquez has performed 95 percent above league average offensively.
3) Joshua Baez. Wow. Hello. I’ve been writing about Baez since early last summer, but I didn’t expect to see an onrushing train speeding to St. Louis so soon. He’s not here yet; the Cardinals obviously did the sensible thing by assigning him to Triple A Memphis to begin the regular season. But Baez, 22, made a widespread impression during his first MLB camp: .333 average, .417 OBP, .762 slug. At the end of his spring showcase with the big club, Baez had a wRC+ that was 97 percent above league average offensively.
Those criticizing St. Louis president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom for making the Memphis decision should recognize a few things and calm the heck down.
– Baez put on a stunning display of power. Yes. Loved it. But his lack of experience showed up in other ways … like his 25% strikeout rate … his 21% swing-miss rate … his combined 36.4% swinging/called strike percentage … his 68.8% contact rate on strikes needs to be higher. Baez did a nice job of limiting his swings at junk out of the zone (24%), but has other plate-discipline concerns to smooth out. And the best place for him to do that is Memphis. The Joshua Spree will be here in time.
As Bloom told The Athletic: “Josh made such great strides in 2025 that we were hoping to see him carry into this spring, and he’s done that so far. Just as important, the way he carried himself in big-league camp was top-notch. He showed maturity and focus that has us very much looking forward to what he’ll do in Triple A once the season starts.”
4) Nolan Gorman. He’s made a lot of progress, and as I said/wrote last week, I understand why some observers are skeptical about all of that. But just to do a quick summary/review:
– 13.5% walk rate, 16.2% strikeout rate. That’s different for Gorman.
– Just an 11% swinging-strike rate. That’s different for Gorman.
– A 24.3% chase rate. That’s different for Gorman.
– Best stat: Gorman’s 84.2% contact rate on strikes.
– I presented an earlier version of this stat last week, so here’s an update: when Gorman has jumped on a heart-of-the-zone strike this spring, he’s 6 for 14 (.429) with two homers, two other extra-base hits, a 23% barrel rate, a 54% hard-hit rate and a massive 1.071 slug.
Bring that good stuff back home to St. Louis, Stormin’ Gorman. Don’t leave all of that in Florida.
5) JJ Wetherholt. But of course. Please do yourself a favor and ignore his .240 batting average, a product of lousy batted-ball luck. I say that because the dude has a ridiculous (as in smashing!) hard-hit rate of 55 percent.
Here are some of my favorite JJ stats:
– JJ’s freakin’ walk rate is 23.5 percent. For perspective consider this: when Mark McGwire famously propelled 70 pitches into home-run orbit in 1998, Big Mac’s walk rate was a virtually identical 23.8%.
– All of these Wether-walks have curated a gorgeous .441 on-base percentage.
– JJ’s chase rate is a stingy 16%. He ain’t doing these pitchers any favors.
– Another example of his selective nature: JJ has swung at only 33.8 percent of the pitches offered to him. Unless he believes he can do something with it, Wetherholt simply refuses to swing.
– When Wetherholt identifies an actionable pitch – especially the juicy cuts at the center of the strike zone, he has swatted two homers, slugged .579, sizzled a 62.5% hard-hit rate, and generated an average exit velocity of 94.3 mph.
– His swing-miss rate is a mere 8 percent. Does this kid think he’s Musial?
– Wetherholt’s overall contact rate is 81 percent, and that’s 83.2% on strikes.
– You know the expression “hitting to all fields,” right? Well, Mr. Wetherholt does that. Do you think I exaggerate? In games this spring, the left-swinging hitter has pulled the ball 30 percent of the time, has hit it to center/middle at a rate of 35%, and his opposite field rate is 35%.
— He has not hit a pop up in a game this spring. Not a one.
Tuesday, I’ll present some STL spring-training performances and situations that aren’t nearly as satisfying as the areas I wrote about today.
Thanks for reading … and please excuse my typos. I need to do a better job of editing. But the eyes get tired.
– Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.