I won’t officially pull out an old “Darkness on the Edge of Town” reference for this column.
Wait. I just did. The title tells you all you need to know about the Cardinals’ passage to Cincinnati, to Milwaukee, and back to St. Louis to throw down against the arch-enemy Cubs.
Since I’m processing some feelings, the fan part of me will tell you this: I don’t know if the Cardinals, in their present state, are fully equipped to play up to their maximum level. Or close to it.
Why?
1. The malaise on offense: St. Louis has averaged 3.5 runs in the team’s first 18 games of May. They have scored two runs or fewer in 50 percent of their games this month. Another time, they scored just three.
— Here’s the impact: when the Cardinals have scored four or more runs in a game this month, they’re 8-0. When they’ve squeaked for fewer than four runs in a May game, they’re 2-8.
— In their eight losses the Cardinals averaged 1.37 runs, batted .199 and slugged a faint .269.
— Power blackout: going into the weekend, the Cardinals’ rate of home runs per game (0.83) is down by 49 percent from where it was (1.32) at the end of April. And after averaging 4.77 extra-base hits per game in March-April, the Cards are punching just 2.4 XBH per game in May.
— Walk this way. The Cardinals aren’t drawing enough Walks in May. Their 7.3 percent walk rate ranks 24th this month, and that’s a factor in a .311 on-base percentage that’s a 15 percent drop from the team OBP in March-April.
— With the lower OBP a factor, the Cardinals aren’t setting up as many run-scoring opportunities in May. And when they have runners in scoring position they’ve batted .213 this month; that’s down by 23 points from the end of April.
2. Can the Cardinals close out games without disaster? Redbird arms will be operating in two yards (Cincinnati, Milwaukee) that can be tough on pitchers. Visiting pitchers have yielded 1.6 home runs per nine innings at Cincinnati. Visitors have a 5.13 ERA at Milwaukee.
This matters because Cards closer Riley O’Brien has a 7.45 ERA and multiple blown saves in his last 10 appearances. As I documented in a column earlier this week, O’Brien’s sinker has really absorbed a lot of damage during his downturn.
I feel obliged to repeat the information. Compared to his first 13 appearances, in his last 10 appearances the sinker has displayed these abnormalities:
* 15 percent drop in whiff-swing rate.
* 12% decrease in strikeout rate.
* 13% rise in walk + HBP rate.
* 21% fall in ground-ball rate.
* 8.6% increase in avg. exit velo by hitters.
* 19% increase in hard-hit rate against.
* A loss of five inches on the vertical drop.
If Riley O’Brien is still dealing with sudden ineffectiveness, the Cardinals figure to have a more difficult time in locking down games on the road for the next six games, and for the three at home vs. the Cubs. This is a huge variable.
3. Do we trust the Cards rotation? Can they keep dodging those metaphorical bullets? There has been some improvement in recent weeks, yes. And I’ve highlighted that. Touted that, even. But the underlying reality has not changed at all.
Let’s take a look. And these metrics encompass the bullpen as well, but I’m using them because the starters and relievers have similar stats in these areas.
– Cards pitchers have yielded the highest contact rate (90%) in the majors on strikes. And have been struck for the second-highest contact rate overall.
– The hard-hit rate against STL pitchers (43.7%) is the highest in the majors.
– Redbird pitchers have been blasted for 587 balls that left the bat at 95+ miles per hour; that’s the second-highest rate against a pitching staff in MLB.
– The average exit velocity against STL pitchers is the third-highest in the majors.
– Only two MLB pitching staffs have allowed more batted balls in fair territory than the Cardinals.
– St. Louis pitchers have the lowest strikeout rate (18.8%) and swing-miss rate (9.5%) in the majors.
This is kind of a Molotov Cocktail situation. We’re talking about a lot of Molotov Cocktails. How long can we realistically expect the Cardinals’ pitchers to keep escaping danger?
4. Back to the hitters: some of the underlying metrics explain why the power has decreased in May.
– Ideal attack angle: down.
– Squared-up contact: way down.
– Barrel rate: down.
– Expected slugging pct: down 12%
– Expected wOBA: down 23 points
– Hard-hit rate: down 3% in May.
The team’s chase rate has increased by 3 percent in May. That isn’t good, but the Cards are still connecting for roughly the same percentage of contact as they did in March-April … but they’re not barreling as many pitches, squaring up as many pitches, or hitting the ball as hard. Adjustments must be made.
5. Final thoughts. Let’s not forget that these roadies from St. Louis are tied for the second-best road record (15-8) in the majors. The Cardinals are mediocre at home, but have made a lot of noise as an aggressive road team in 2026. I truly believe this is a looser team on the road, because that’s where they really get into the underdog vibe and love stirring it up in these ballpark invasions.
This is their chance for St. Louis get the offense cranking again … the hitter-happy Great American Ball Park is just the place to do it… and the Cards get a chance to take out their frustrations on a Reds bullpen that has a MLB–poorest 7.17 ERA in May. The Reds relievers have been pummeled for 17 homers, 32 extra-base hits, a .512 slugging percentage and a hideous 15% walk rate in 71 and ⅓ innings this month.
Then again … a vulnerable STL pitching staff may be under more pressure and encounter more adversity in Cincinnati and Milwaukee. How will they hold up?
Well, this wasn’t a pray for rain situation. But Friday’s Cards-Reds game was rained out. That sets up a split doubleheader on Saturday, which will make for a busy work day – and perhaps many, many runs – for the pitching workforce on both sides.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.