Welcome to my new feature here at STL Sports Central: Breakfast with Bernie, which I’ll write early in the morning on most weekdays. I’ll serve up observations, opinions, notes, facts, stats, praise, cheap shots, randomness, and some weirdness as I have my first cuppa or two of the day. We’ll (mostly) go “Buffet” style to give you a chance to graze before I write a different column that I’ll post much later in the day.
THE LEAD-OFF TAKE
Cubs at Cardinals, three games, Busch Stadium, the rivalry resumes, cold beer, a history of bad blood, high emotions, good cheer, blue vs. red, two teams trying to find their way. There’s Jordan Walker, Pete Crow-Armstrong, a bandaged and wounded Cubs pitching staff, and a Cardinals lineup that has four strong spots at the top, and a lot of holes and questions in the 5-6-7-8-9 slots.
The Cardinals (29-25) have a losing record (11-12) in May, mostly due to a torpid offense that ranks 14th among the 15 NL teams in runs scored this month. The Redbirds are trying to flap their wings after losing four in a row and seven of their last nine.
The Cardinals, as the Cubs, know what it’s like to be humiliated by getting swept by the Brewers in a recent series.
The Cubs, who were blazing early, just emerged from a hideous 2-14 stretch that was weighted down by a 10-game losing streak. During the 16 games, the Cubs were outscored by 48 runs, batted .180, and averaged 2.5 runs per competition.
I say there’s more pressure on the Cubs than the Cardinals. Why?
The Cardinals are in a build-a-team workshop season, have the second-youngest squad in the majors, and are funded by an active-cash 26-man payroll of $46.4 million.
The Cubs made splashy offseason moves (yo Alex Bregman) jacked their total payroll to $238.3 million, and are expecting to win big while and overthrow the champion Dodgers as NL kings.
Game on, tarps off, and by the end of the three-day series, one of these fan bases will be crying in their beers. I just don’t know if it will be Budweiser or Old Style. I do know that Brewer fans get to laugh and they’ll have another round of Miller Lite.
Let’s head to The Buffet …
FROM THE JOSHUA BAEZ FILE
Someone please call 9-1-1 because Triple A pitchers may require medical assistance to treat their battered earned-run averages. Baez is dangerous. He’s destructive. He’s the demo man. The Cardinals
Details:
* Baez strikes again! The Cardinals’ No. 3 prospect walloped another home run for Triple A Memphis on Thursday night, making it FIVE bombs in the last three games. The slugging sensation also added an RBI triple in the Redbirds’ 5-4 win at Omaha.
* Baez has 16 home runs and a .578 slugging percentage on the season. After being promoted from High A to Double A during the 2025 campaign, Baez clubbed 16 home runs for Springfield, but needed 273 at-bats to do it. But in playing at Triple A for the first time this season, Baez (age 22) has 16 home runs in only 187 at-bats. Hey, isn’t it supposed to be more difficult in Triple A?
* Baez in Double A last season: .509 slugging percentage … a HR every 17 at-bats. Age 21.
* Baez at Triple A this season: .578 slug … a HR every 11.6 at-bats. Age 22.
* Meet him in St. Louis? In his last 13 games, going back to May 12, Baez has rocketed nine home runs and two doubles, batted .327 and slugged .891. His hard-hit rate over that time is a vicious 53.8 percent, and his barrel rate is a ridiculous 25.8%.
* Reducing strikeouts: during this 13-game power-hitting tour, Baez has a strikeout rate of 25.8 percent. That’s notable, and positive, because Baez had a 34.2% strikeout rate on the season before these last 13 games. Baez still has too much whiff-swing in his game, but he’s improving.
* This young man is hitting everything. And I’m not kidding. In the 13-game stretch, Baez has ripped four homers on four-seam fastballs, and blasted one homer on a slider, sinker, changeup, sweeper, curve and cutter. That’s a home run on a variety of six different pitches. Oh, and his average exit velocity in the 13 games was 94.7 mph.
* Another positive: Two-strike hitting. Over his last 13 games through Thursday, Baez launched three homers, slugged .643 and hit .250 on two-strike counts. And in while Baez had a high strikeout rate in these two-strike scenarios – which isn’t unusual – these he also had a 12.5% walk rate, a 58% hard-hit rate, and a 25% barrel rate. When you’re that effective in two-strike situations, it’s a sign of growth and maturity.
Moving On …
— Brewers president of baseball operations Matt Arnold is pushing back on sign-stealing accusations made by Cards manager Oli Marmol. “To suggest we’re (relaying signs) is honestly quite ridiculous,” Arnold told WTMJ radio in Milwaukee. “We play the game a different way. We play it tough. We’ll let our game on the field do the talking.” Arnold added this: if the Brewers were stealing signs, “we’d have more homers.”
— It’s interesting how comments made by Marmol actually escalated hostilities between the Cardinals and Brewers. Which is fine, because Marmol was telling the opponent that he knew what they were up to and should knock it off. Words. But what about taking action? The Cardinals ducked the chance to gain respect by declining to retaliate against the Brewers after the hip-thrusting-buffoon routine performed by Milwaukee reliever Abner Uribe. He aimed his groin directly at the Cardinals dugout. The Cardinals did nothing.
— And now Arnold is boasting about how the Brewers “play it tough,” which could be viewed another way. (The Cardinals aren’t tough.) This only confirms my belief: the Cardinals lost face by not standing up to the Brewers. And going by Arnold’s comments, I’ll assume the Brewers probably had a few good laughs after sweeping the visitors from St. Louis.
— By the looks of it, the Brewers don’t respect the Cardinals. But why should they? After Uribe’s demented Chippendale’s routine, the Cards had a chance to display strength by striking back and chose to take a pass. It’s sad to witness this complete reversal of roles in the Cardinals-Brewers rivalry since the Tony La Russa days. TLR was an intimidator who lived in the Brewers’ heads. The psychological edge gave the Cardinals a considerable advantage. The rivalry has changed. Since the start of the 2023 season, the Cardinals have won only 17 of their 44 games played against the Crew.
MY FRIDAY RANT
— OK, so the MLB Players Association made an initial proposal in the process of negotiating a new collective bargaining agreement with baseball’s owners. And then the owners’ negotiators submitted their first proposal for a new CBA. Which is HOW THIS WORKS. It’s the opening round, and there will be approximately 50 million other proposals made (back and forth) as this process plays out. And lo and behold, after the first exchange of CBA concepts, it seems the owners and players don’t agree with each other. Shocking!
— Can you imagine that? Shocking! What I don’t understand is why some fans and media are treating this like the world is about to end. People: calm the bleep down. We’ve got months and months and months and months and months of this coming. You’re gonna burn out. Move away from the laptop. Take a break from the X account. Have a glass of ice-cold water. Get a nap. Walk the dog. Hug a loved one. Listen to the new Drake album. (Actually, don’t do that.)
— How will this CBA exchange affect the Cardinals? Uh, it won’t. Because it doesn’t matter. Because it’s not an agreement. So how can a non-agreement affect the Cardinals? You know what will affect the Cardinals? SCORING SOME DAMN RUNS.
— This is the stage where men from each side are trying to project virility, or something like that. But hold off on the war paint. How will the first proposals affect the Cardinals? I have an answer: the Cubs are in town for three games. The games haven’t been called off because the owners and players sent files to each other.
— As end of the world scenarios go, MLB owners vs. Players and the coming Armageddon that won’t become Armageddon doesn’t rise to the level of the Planet of the Apes. It isn’t even Rise of the Planet of the Apes. It’s not The Day. It’s not The Day After Tomorrow. It’s not The Day the Earth Stood Still.
— No, it’s Rob Manfred vs. Bruce Meyer, with each side playing the role of victim. It’s fake outrage. It’s a dark comedy. And MLB owners and Players have been doing this since the 1970s. This is haka peruperu, an ancient ceremonial war-cry dance performed to terrify opposing factions. I got that through an online search. I’m pretending to be smart.
BERNIE’S BIRD BYTES
— Prospect Watch: Keith Law of the Athletic included three Cardinals on his updated Top 50 prospects list, which was posted earlier this week. Lefty pitcher Liam Doyle was posted at No. 20, righty pitcher Tanner Franklin was slotted at No. 25, and teenage catcher Rainiel Rodriguez was placed at No. 29.
— The big 6-5, 240-pound Franklin is especially intriguing; he wasn’t as heralded as his Doyle, his teammate at Tennessee. But the Cards were wise to draft Franklin in the second round last summer, and the front office is just as excited about Franklin as Doyle.
— Law on Franklin: “Franklin is 95-100 mph with a plus slider working as a starter in High A, which is remarkable given that he had a 4.89 ERA for Tennessee last spring as a reliever … he was mostly fastball/cutter for the Volunteers, while the Cardinals have him throwing his true slider more, and harder, along with a sweeper, curveball and what might be a 55 (quality) changeup that he just hasn’t needed much. He’s stronger and repeating the delivery well without any real changes to it since college. There’s No. 2 starter upside here, which is incredible given where he was a year ago.”
— If I had to pick the best move made during the NFL offseason, it’s an easy choice for me: the Kansas City Chiefs signing running back Kenneth Walker III, the Super Bowl MVP, to a three-year, $45 million contract. The decision reaffirmed coach Andy Reid’s plan to strengthen and expand the KC running game as quarterback Patrick Mahomes makes his way back from knee surgery. The Chiefs won’t be able to put everything on Mahomes again, and a power running game is just what the offense needs to have a more complete approach.
— Texas A&M football coach Mike Elko had the best quote during the SEC meetings. When asked how many teams should make the College Football Playoff field, Elko cut through the BS and spoke the truth.
— With a smile on his face, Elko threw down. “What does Mike Elko want? 40 (teams). Then I won’t get fired. We don’t have to find a number that allows everyone to get in — it’s OK for it to be hard to get into the playoff. None of us (coaches) are answering for the good of the sport. We are answering for the good of ourselves.”
— Speaking of quotes, I love this one. I have to set it up for you. It’s from the HBO/Max show “Hacks,” which just completed an excellent five-season run. One of the characters who works for star Deborah Vance’s agent offered this gem.
“God, I love this business,” she said. “It’s 90 percent the most delusional, lazy people you’ve ever seen in your life and 10 percent the most delusional workaholics.”
Sounds a helluva lot like sportswriting and media.
Thanks for reading and have a great weekend …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach.
Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams.
Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball.
Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows.
And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.