Hello, and welcome to my new feature here at STL Sports Central: Breakfast with Bernie, which I’ll write early in the morning on most weekdays. I’ll serve up observations, opinions, notes, facts, stats, praise, cheap shots, randomness, and some weirdness as I have my first cuppa or two of the day. We’ll (mostly) go “Buffet” style to give you a chance to graze before I write a different column I’ll post later in the day. On most days, I’ll lead off with a Cards recap. There will be plenty of baseball information served here.
I want to begin breakfast service by taking a look at Blaze Jordan and Joshua Baez and explain why they are still swinging the bat at Triple-A Memphis instead of MLB St. Louis.
BLAZE JORDAN
There are three reasons why Blaze Jordan will likely stay at Triple-A Memphis longer than you would expect despite having a .322 average, .379 on-base rate and .558 slugging percentage:
1) Too much chase. Though Jordan has an extremely low strikeout rate (11.5%), which is an obvious positive, he still chases too many pitches out of the strike zone. His chase rate is a surprisingly high 38 percent. He’s swung at 154 out of zone pitches this season and 50 have been whiff-swings, 60 were fouled off, and 44 were put in play.
When Jordan makes contact with non-strikes this season, he’s batted .254 with a .322 slugging percentage. And the contact is weak, as shown by a 27.7% hard-hit rate.
And when Jordan swings and connects on strikes, he’s hit .349 with a .645 slugging percentage and blasted a 48% hard-hit rate. The Cardinals want him to reduce his swings on balls out of the zone and focus more on attacking pitches in the strike zone because he’s especially dangerous and damaging when he does. And his offensive numbers – already outstanding at Triple-A – could turn sensational. And Jordan’s puny walk rate (7%) would probably double if he stopped hacking at junk. Question: why would pitchers present more strikes to Jordan when they know it’s so easy to get him to take the bait on bad pitches? Just imagine if these pitchers had to throw him more strikes.
The Cardinals firmly believe that Jordan has the ability to be a 25+ home-run source instead of a 15-homer guy. By holding off on pitches that are off the plate and deaden the quality of contact, Jordan would juice his power by saving a higher percentage of his swings for strikes he can drive.
By laying off out-of-zone balls, Jordan would establish more control of the strike zone and gain an edge with more hitter-friendly counts. By chasing too often, Jordan is doing the pitchers a favor by limiting his opportunities to crush strikes. But a 38% chase rate in the minors all but guarantees a much worse chase rate against major-league pitchers.
Jordan has elite bat-to-ball skills. But just because he can hit a pitcher’s pitch, it doesn’t mean he should. If Jordan calmed his aggression it would superboost his offense in two ways. First, he’d have more walks and a fatter OBP by decreasing those weak outs that come when he strays from the strike zone. He could probably trade in harmless ground balls and weak fly balls for 20 extra walks per season. And second, even though his .558 slug is terrific, there’s a lot more of it sitting there if Jordan goes and gets it. When Jordan squares up a pitch, the results are loud, with Blaze generating an exit velocity that’s in the 90th percentile.
So while a .558 slug looks really good on a scoreboard or laptop screen, it’s actually a ceiling of Jordan’s own making. A significant reduction of his weak, out-of-zone contact would almost certainly push his slugging percentage over .600. And that’s elite.
2) Blaze is not a third baseman: though Jordan has played some third base this season, the Cardinals have recently moved Jordan away from the position and he’s getting more of his at-bats as a first baseman or designated hitter. This is disappointing news to the Nolan Gorman haters who desperately want Jordan promoted to take over third base for the Cardinals. But Blaze is poor defensively at third base, and the Cards don’t think he belongs there as a major leaguer. The Cardinals are fans of Jordan’s hitting. But as was the case with Jimmy Crooks, they want a lot less bat-neutralizing chasing and more strike-zone punishment.
3) He’s not on the 40-man roster. That’s always a consideration for president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom.
JOSHUA BAEZ
As I’ve been writing, Baez has been rocketing pitches all over the Triple-A landscape for 17 home runs and a .584 slugging percentage. But as is the case with Blaze Jordan, Baez is capping his own power with too many poor swing decisions. Predictably his high out-of-zone chase rate (35.5%) has resulted in a 50% whiff-swing rate.
When he’s swinging and missing at so many pitches out of the zone, the habit cuts down on his chances to bang more home runs and inflate his slugging. His strikeout rate on out-of-zone pitches is 43.3%. His OOZ batting average and slugging percentage are (respectively) .152 and .228. And he has just one home run on these OOZ swings.
When Baez stays in the strike zone, he’s clubbed 16 homers, batted .333 with a .793 slug, and barreled 24 percent of pitches on contact.
There’s also a second major problem in play with Baez. This season his contact rate on pitches in the strike zone is 73.3 percent, and that’s way too low. The MLB average for contact rate on strikes is about 85 percent. And if a hitter’s Z-contact rate falls below 80%, that’s a red flag that can bring down their expected batting average and slugging.
After looking into the question – will Baez be promoted to the majors soon? – I found my answer. That 73.3% contact rate on strikes at Triple-A is very much on the Cardinals’ radar … and is a concern. As it should be. In time, they expect to see him get his barrel on a higher percentage of strikes. I’ve been pushing for a Baez promotion before the All-Star break. But it looks like Bernie and St. Louis will have to wait a while.
Let’s get to the buffet …
— One thing the Cardinals must do this weekend against the Reds is exploit an injury-splattered bullpen that has the worst ERA (6.05) since closer Emilio Pagan was lost to a hamstring injury on May 5. Over that time, in 25 games, the Reds relievers have been belted for the highest home-run rate in the majors at 1.96 per nine innings – and also have the fourth-worst walk rate.
– Three things you can’t make me do: (1) Make me listen to music of Geese, the pretentious band. (2) can’t make me watch “Office Romance,” this new Jennifer Lopez movie on Netflix. I saw a promo. As she makes her entrance to open the movie, the song playing is “I Believe In Miracles” by the 1970s funk-soul band Hot Chocolate. Barf! You can’t make me watch this thing. And (3) you can’t make me watch CNN, Fox News or MS Now. You just can’t make me.
— After losing Game 1 of the NBA Finals, the San Antonio Spurs have some things to work on before playing the New York Knicks on Friday night.
— In Game 2, the Spurs must win the big-man matchup. In the series opener, NY's Karl-Anthony Towns clearly got the best of the 7-4 Spurs giant Victor Wembanyama.
— Wembanyama, who finished third in NBA MVP voting this season, made just 6 of 21 shots from the field in the first game. And with Towns as the primary defender, Wemby missed 10 of 12 shots from the floor and turned the ball over four times. On the other end Towns was paramount in New York’s 14-point comeback win including a third-quarter performance topped by 10 points and four rebounds.
— San Antonio will have to find a way to demythologize Knicks guard Jalen Brunson, the fantastic floor leader that has led his team to 12 consecutive wins during this 2026 postseason. In Game 1, Brunson scored 13 of his 30 total points in the final 7 ½ minutes to carry New York to its 105-95 victory.
— Brunson shot 5 for 9 in the fourth quarter of Game 1 and had zero turnovers. Wemby was 3 for 8 in the fourth quarter with two turnovers.
— The idiot who ran onto the court in Game 1 of the NBA Finals to take a selfie with Victor Wembanyama? Should have been tased, then dumped into the Bexar County Adult Detention Center. Hey, I’m mean. But it wouldn’t have mattered. Because we all know this imbecile will become a celebrity, and given a reality show by Andy Cohen on Bravo TV. That’s America.
— When I watched that on-court scene it reminded me of a recent quote that made me laugh. Forever badass rocker Chrissie Hynde, who is fed up with seeing fans at her concert obsessively playing with their cell phones.
— The Chrissie quote: “It’s like a weird compulsion that people can’t control,” Hynde wrote in a letter posted on her social media accounts. “It reminds me of monkeys wanking in full view of the people standing around their enclosure … and frankly, in that case, people deserved to be wanked at because monkeys should not be in an enclosure in the first place. However, an artist on a stage?”
— That’s hysterical. Maybe a message of love from Chrissie.
— Random, out of context power rankings. Today’s category: fruit. (1) Peaches (2) Bananas and (3) Blueberries. Kiwi is underrated.
– In other rankings news … Rolling Stone made a list of the Top 10 guitar solos of all time. St. Louis was represented. Coming in at No. 6 was the late Chuck Berry for Johnny B. Goode. Rolling Stone called it “the definitive guitar-hero anthem,” and said Berry perfected the rock & roll guitar solo as we know it.” Rolling Stone added, “Every tradition of American music is somewhere in Chuck Berry’s guitar — never louder or more defiant than right here.”
— OK, so why wasn’t Johnny B. Goode ranked higher than 6th? Ridiculous. C’mon. Gotta be in the top five, at least. Well, at least No. 6 has a prestigious place here in The Lou. Stan Musial’s number.
— In case you’re wondering, the other guitar solos that made the top 10 were Prince for Purple Rain … Jimi Hendrix with Machine Gun… The Eagles and Hotel California … Pink Floyd’s Comfortably Numb … Van Halen’s Eruption … Led Zeppelin and Stairway To Heaven … Funkadelic’s Maggot Brain … The Beatles with While My Guitar Gently Weeps.
— On Nolan Gorman: since the start of 2025, 185 MLB hitters have taken at least 600 plate appearances. Of the 185, Nolan Gorman is:
* No. 185 in batting average, .205
* No. 185 in strikeout rate, 33%
* No. 164 in onbase rate, .292
* No. 168 in slugging pct, .358
* No. 177 in OPS, 650
* No. 172 in wRC+, 83
* No. 116 in home runs, with 21.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach.
Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams.
Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball.
Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows.
And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.