Hello, and welcome to my new feature here at STL Sports Central: Breakfast with Bernie, which I’ll write early in the morning on most weekdays. And if I’m a little late it’ll be “Brunch with Bernie.” I’ll serve up observations, opinions, notes, facts, stats, praise, cheap shots, randomness, and some weirdness as I have my first cuppa or two or three of the day. At times we’ll go “buffet” style for morning grazing, and later in the day I’ll author a new column. On most days, I’ll lead off with a Cards recap. There will be plenty of baseball info served here, with emphasis on the Cardinals.
Good morning.
Cardinals fans are buzzing more than ever about power-hitting prospect Joshua Baez, who made big news nationally by walloping four home runs for Memphis in a win over Nashville. That incredible feat got national attention from media sources that ranged from Baseball America to People magazine.
Locally, Cards-focused blogs depicted Baez as knocking on the door to the majors, and wondered when the promotion would happen. Redbird Rants drew up two speculative St. Louis lineups that had Baez in them against both right-handed starters and lefties.
The excitement is understandable, though there are no indications of the Cardinals making plans to summon Baez anytime soon. But sure, Baez will be on the way – either later this season or when MLB returns to action in 2027.
I’m not here to debate the pros and cons of bringing the outfielder – who turns 23 in 10 days – to the show. I’m much more interested in looking at his progress, his challenges, and why the Cardinals are being patient instead of rushing him onto their 26-man roster. They have good reasons.
In the June update for his Top 100 Prospects rankings, the respected Thomas Nestico of TJStats put Baez at No. 45. The data-driven Nestico takes all baseball matters seriously – he’s the opposite of a hot-take bullhorn – and he identified plate-discipline issues as an ongoing concern.
“The gains that fuelled his breakout last season (bat-to-ball, patience) have seemingly reverted back to their underwhelming rates,” Nestico wrote at his TJStats, which I subscribe to. “At the moment, Baez does not look like the complete slugger that catapulted himself as a consensus Top 100 prospect last season. Thankfully, his power metrics are still in line with the best bats in MiLB, although exhibiting his pop has been much less consistent this season. Without a more refined hit tool, Baez profiles more as a high-risk, high-reward bat with both the speed and defensive skillset to buoy his prospect stock.”
OK, I’ll jump in here with some information and observations.
— Nestico’s assessment is valid and generally matches the view inside the Cardinals’ front office. President of baseball operations Chaim Bloom and associates have 100 percent enthusiasm for Baez and what he’ll do for the Cardinals. The baseball people love Baez so much, they don’t want to damage his growth by making an impulsive decision influenced by media-fan hype and in-the-moment overreactions.
— However: if you think I’m being a grouch and looking for negatives, you could not be more incorrect. I’ve researched the data with an eye on his changing trends and Baez has shown real improvement in June. He’s lowered his strikeout rate, his whiff-swing rate, and increased his contact rate on pitches in the strike zone.
— In 60 plate appearances this month Baez is batting .382 with an .855 slugging percentage and 1.238 OPS. He’s homered seven times, pounded dive doubles and driven in 21 runs in 13 games. But his spectacular month can be attributed to the sharpening of some key underlying factors.
— Let’s look at the trends, breaking them down into monthly rates. As you read this, the progression will flow from left to right, covering April, May and June in that order. What this reveals is hardly surprising. Baez made a huge breakthrough at Double A in 2025, but making the successful jump to Triple A would require time, hard work, adjustments and patience.
Strikeout rate: 35% … 29% … 26.6%. Progress? Yes. Of course. You can see it – a punch-out rate that has decreased each month.
Overall contact rate: 63% … 63.2% … 72%. Right now the average major-league contact rate is 77 percent. Baez understandably struggled for two months, turning in below-average contact rates in April and May. Because he’s in Triple A, his contact rate should be higher than the MLB average because the minor-league pitchers aren’t as good. But his 72% rate in June is another sign of learning, adjusting and growing.
Contact rate on strikes: 76.9% … 69.2 … 81.2%. The average MLB contact rate on strikes this season is 86 percent. As you can see by his April-May rates, Baez was poor at connecting with strikes early on, and he actually got worse in his second month at Triple A. But while his 81.2% contact rate on strikes is still well below average (and still a problem), he’s headed in the right direction – an upturn instead of a downturn. That’s good!
Chasing non-strikes: 36% … 37% … 37.%. Baez is sabotaging himself by swinging at too many pitches out of the strike zone. That chase rate is a prominent reason for his low walk rate on the season – and his walk rate in June (3.3%) is his lowest in a month so far in 2026. By chasing so frequently, Baez makes it easy for pitchers to neutralize him, and shut him down. They have no reason to repeatedly challenge him in the strike zone; they’re confident he will hack at bad pitches and get himself out. And each time Baez hacks at out-of-zone pitches, he kills his opportunity to crank up his power.
You think I’m exaggerating?
When Baez swings at strikes this season: .335 average, .817 slugging percentage, 61.6% hard-hit rate, 21 home runs, 10 doubles, 3 triples, 25.3% whiff-swing rate, 24.2% strikeout rate and a massive .481 wOBA.
When Baez swings at non-strikes this season: .174 average, .272 slug, 32% hard-hit rate, two homers, two doubles, 48.5% whiff-swing rate, 40% strikeout rate, and a terrible .301 wOBA.
The Baez chase rate for the season puts him in the bottom 6% of minor-league hitters. And despite his June improvement, his contact rate on strikes puts Baez in the bottom 4% of minor-league hitters.
I know that we want to see the new super-slugger action-hero toy on display in the batter’s box at Busch Stadium. Sure. That would be entertaining … until it isn’t. (See: Jordan Walker in 2024, 2025.)
If you think Bloom is being silly or overly cautious about keeping Baez at Triple A for a while longer … I regret to inform you that you’re mistaken. Baez is getting better. He's improving in some crucial areas of his hitting profile. You don't interrupt his progress right now. You let the process continue. You let him continue to work on his weaknesses and be stronger and more capable of having success early in his major-league career instead of putting into position where he'd be vulnerable to setback after setback.
You keep Josh Baez at Triple A for a simple reason:
So you don't have to send him back to Triple A.
The Buffet
– Ronaldo, dude, might be time to book a flight and go home. Portugal drew 1-1 with the Democratic Republic of Congo in their opening match at the 2026 World Cup. Media from around the world targeted Ronaldo, age 41, as the reason for Portugal’s disappointing result.
— The newspaper The Independent called Ronaldo “a statue” and said Portugal had sacrificed “yet another World Cup to Cristiano Ronaldo’s ego”.
— From L'Équipe: "In the opening game of Cristiano Ronaldo’s sixth World Cup, Portugal chose to offer the world a caricature of themselves.”
— French journalist Daniel Riolo said Ronaldo is "a plague for his team"
— This, from the Spanish daily AS: “The draw plunges both Ronaldo and the Portuguese national team into the deepest depression.”
— The Guardian ripped the ancient Portuguese forward and head coach Roberto Martínez. And suggested lineup changes “If they decide to keep Ronaldo on the pitch, but nothing I’ve seen from Martínez suggests he has the will or courage to leave him out.”
— Speaking of the World Cup, here’s a bizarre excerpt from the Kansas City Star: “On the night Messi lights up Kansas City, another icon also shines: the Western Auto sign.”
— What the hell? Western Auto sign, and Messi? This has to be one of the greatest tributes the Argentinian icon has received in his glorious career.
— Since I’m tapping into some weird sheet today, here’s some life advice from the site Apartment Therapy.
Headline: I’ll Never Go Into the House Without Doing These 5 Things First
1. Sanitize your hands before entering the house.
2. Put your (bags) on the floor, and hang up your bag and keys.
3. Take off dirty shoes and clothes
4. Wash your hands thoroughly, then unpack your things
5. Disinfect if needed, or wash your hands again.
OK, now here’s a suggestion from me: have a freaking cocktail, make it a double, then sit down and relax. And don’t you dare sanitize the glass.
— Speaking of someone who really needs to relax, I submit the name of Chris Roycroft.
— This headline, from Vox, well, it scared me: “Why Young Men Are Killing Their Sperm.”
— One more headline, and then I’ll move on. “Did Cleopatra bathe in donkey milk?” That’s from History Extra. I ain’t gonna subscribe to that one.
— If I got a dog, it would be the West Highland White Terrier.
— Jordan Binnington? The Blues goaltender is being shopped around … by the media. NHL Insider Matt Larkin wrote this: “Binnington is coming off the worst season of his career but showed enough at the Olympics to remind us he can be an asset on the right team given his puckhandling and clutch-save ability. Is there enough of a market for him right now? The Edmonton Oilers are the clear team to watch.”
— Completely random opinion: Dwight D. Eisenhower is on the short list of the most underrated presidents in U.S. history, along with Chester Arthur. Ike didn’t take no mess. When asked about the people who opposed the Social Security program, he said: “Their numbers are negligible and they are stupid.”
— Is it rude of me to ask Cardinals fans to pick up the pace, make an effort and cast All-Star votes for Jordan Walker, JJ Wetherholt and Alec Burleson? Can you please give the fellas a ballot boost?
— Got a call from AT&T, asking me if I’d be interested in a new and advanced wireless system. My response: “Yeah, for my brain.”
FINALLY ….
Here’s a fantastic statistical briefing on Cards rookie JJ Wetherholt by Matthew Trueblood at Baseball Prospectus, written earlier this week:
— “Some 307 hitters have taken at least 200 swings this season in the majors. Among them, here are the players who have centered the ball on their barrel on at least 77% of their swings; been on time (neither early nor late) on at least 73%; and lined the ball up on the bat, vertically, at least 67% of the time:
Wetherholt
Luis Arraez
Juan Soto
“Wetherholt just has that much feel to hit, and his swing speed is much closer to Soto’s than to Arraez’s, too.
“Though he’s not yet delivering huge raw numbers, almost no hitter in the game is putting together a better at-bat on a nightly basis than this rookie.”
— I’ll just react to Trueblood’s findings by saying “Wow” … and JJ Wetherholt is a “Wow” player.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach.
Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams.
Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball.
Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows.
And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.