-1600x900.webp)
Hello, and welcome to my new feature here at STL Sports Central: Breakfast with Bernie, which I’ll write early in the morning on most weekdays. And if I’m a little late it’ll be “Brunch with Bernie.” I’ll serve up observations, opinions, notes, facts, stats, praise, cheap shots, randomness, and some weirdness as I have my first cuppa or two or three of the day. At times we’ll go “buffet” style for morning grazing, and later in the day I’ll author a new column. On most days, I’ll lead off with a Cards recap. There will be plenty of baseball info served here, with emphasis on the Cardinals.
After completing a mostly punchless and feckless 2-4 homestand, your 2026 Cardinals have reached the midway point of their 162-game schedule.
At 43-38 (.531), the Redbirds have exceeded expectations. But in recent weeks they’ve probably lowered expectations with a 15-19 record (.441) since May 20. And that’s part of a .500 existence (25-25) since the end of April.
If we judge the Cardinals based on where they stand instead of where we think they might be going, I see no reason to bellow. On Monday morning, St. Louis had the No. 8 winning percentage among the 30 MLB teams. In defiance of the prediction markets the Birds were holding onto the third National League wild-card passkey.
This NL wild-card rumble is crowded, with five teams positioned near the No. 3 wildcard by a margin of three games or fewer in the standings.
As for what these Cardinals will make happen over their final 81 games … well … let’s just say it can’t be a repeat of 2025. Last year’s team pulled into the 81-game checkpoint with a dandy 44-37 haul. But during a 34-47 over the final 81 games, the hoping turned into moping. After out-scoring foes by 33 runs in the first 81, the Cardinals were a minus 98 in run differential over the final 81. And their .420 winning percentage was 13th in the NL, ahead of only Washington and Colorado.
OK, now what? I have no grandstanding predictions to offer on this subject. And unless my forecast is supported by a wager, the soothsaying is irrelevant for two primary reasons: (1) the Cardinals will show us who they are and (2) president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom will show us his roster moves.
But here on June 29, if anyone wants to blather on about buying or selling or buying and selling, have fun. This is a popular and harmless recreational activity.
What went wrong for the Cardinals during their 2-4 homestand – and other related matters …
1. Same old janky offense at Busch Stadium: the Cardinals have gone 2-5 in their last seven home games while averaging 2.2 runs per competition, batting .207, and peeping for only seven extra-base hits in 237 plate appearances. The home team’s slugging percentage over the last seven home contests is a sad .263.
2. The playbook is missing an air game. Before Bryan Torres lined a two-run homer in the second inning to provide the necessary run support in Sunday’s 2-1 victory, the Cardinals had homered only one time in their previous 267 at-bats at Busch Stadium.
3. True but unusual fact: in their last 10 home games the Cardinals have homered only three times in 306 at-bats – and Torres has two of the three. The other HR was smote by Jose Fermin.
4. In the last 10 home games, Torres has homered twice in 8 at-bats. And Ivan Herrera, Alec Burleson, Jordan Walker, Lars Nootbaar, Masyn Winn, JJ Wetherholt and Blaze Jordan have no home runs in 222 at-bats. Good grief.
5. The Cards wasted some good starting pitching on the six-game homestand. Matthew Liberatore was torched again, and Andre Pallante didn’t catch many breaks in one of his two home starts – with the Marlins getting to him for five runs on the strength of an abnormal .478 batting average on balls in play. But even with that start baked in, Pallante, Kyle Leahy and Michael McGreevy had a 2.10 ERA in five combined starts. That includes one earned run allowed (by Leahy) in the 17 and ⅓ innings pitched by McGreevy and Leahy.
In 15 starts made at Busch Stadium this month, St. Louis starting pitchers collectively crafted a 3.24 ERA. That includes a 2.61 ERA in 13 combined home starts by Dustin May, Leahy, Pallante and McGreevy. Liberatore will open the series in Atlanta on Tuesday, and he’s been the weak link in the rotation. Leahy, for example, has a 3.52 ERA and 2.87 fielding independent ERA in his last six starts. Though he didn’t (and doesn’t) strike many hitters out, Leahy allowed just one home run in the six starts.
THE BUSY BLUES!
— I liked everything done by Doug Armstrong last week. Looking at the entire sequence of events, the Blues’ president of hockey operations traded Jordan Kyrou to Washington, flipped two first-rounders for Anaheim center Mason McTavish, and sent two third-rounders to Toronto for the big-tough defenseman Brandon Carlo. And in doing so, Armstrong pulled off something that isn’t easy to do: changed the team’s identity in a matter of days. The Blues strengthened their spine, firmed up their structure, and became a team that’s much harder to play against than what we saw in them last season.
— The Blues sacrificed elite speed on the rush (Kyrou) but as has been discussed, he had to go. The relationship could not be saved. But Kyrou’s departure was part of Armstrong’s strategy to establish a harder and heavier core identity.
— By subtracting Kyrou and adding Mason McTavish and center Connor McMichael – who was acquired in the Kyrou package – The Note largely transformed their top six. Though McTavish can easily slide to left wing the Blues plan to start him in the middle, giving the Blues a promising and versatile center group that includes Robert Thomas, McTavish, McMichael, the young Dalibor Dvorsky plus Pius Suter.
— The Blues moved a perimeter-scoring winger in Kyrou but added more versatile personnel who can play the 200-foot game down the middle. And instead of relying too extensively on Thomas, the Blues’ restocked center position provides more balance and tougher matchups for opponents.
— Armstrong’s asset management was what we hoped it would be. He used his draft capital to balance the roster.
— The Blues essentially used the draft capital gained from moving Kyrou for the No. 16 overall pick and paired it with their own late first-rounder (No. 29) to buy a 23-year-old centerman (McTavish), who already has 77 goals and 104 assists in the NHL at age 23. After a contract standoff was resolved, McTavish struggled to fit into the different system installed by new Anaheim coach Joel Quenneville. It happens.
— The fresh start in St. Louis is exactly what McTavish needs. And by hiring former Anaheim coach Greg Cronin as an assistant coach under Jim Montgomery, the Blues brought in the developer who tapped into Mason McTavish's high-end potential with very good results. Cronin understands McTavish's personality, his style, and how to best utilize him. The comfort fit is immediately there.
—- This is similar to the new defenseman, Carlo, rejoining Montgomery, his coach in Boston. Carlo won’t need much (if any) of a learning curve for understanding how his coach in St. Louis wants his defensemen to cover gaps and make zone exits. The adjustment period should be minimal.
— Army didn’t relinquish his highest draft asset, keeping the No. 11 overall selection to select Tynan Lawrence, one of the more tactically advanced forward prospects in the entire 2026 class. Draft experts like the kid’s high-IQ game and skill. Steven Ellis (Daily Faceoff) had Lawrence exactly at No. 11, and NHL Central Scouting viewed him as the No. 7 North American skater. Lawrence’s draft stock fell a bit because of his chaotic 2025-26 season. After thriving in the USHL with 17 points in 13 games to start the season, Lawrence enrolled early at Boston University in January. Transitioning to NCAA hockey midway through the campaign as a 17-year old was a huge challenge, and the kid struggled. Understandable, yes?
— But in reading the pre-draft previews, I saw how scouts pointed to his performance as the 2025 Clark Cup MVP, where he captained the Muskegon Lumberjacks to a USHL championship with an 18-point playoff run. You want winners on your roster.
— The moves gave the Blues financial-cap flexibility. Kyrou was locked in for an $8.125 million annual average value for the next five seasons. McTavish is cost-controlled at $7.0 million AAV through 2031, saving over $1.1 million in cap room for a player five years younger than Kyrou who plays a more premium position.
— Carlo's $4.1 million is on a budget contract that expires after next season; that means no dead weight if the Blues decide to go in a different direction or open up cap space next summer.
— My bottom-line view: the Blues are in a better way for making the decision to sell off parts of a broken core that would never mesh and play the style of hockey preferred by Montgomery. Not for the long term, anyway. This process began last spring with the trades that sent forward Brayden Schenn and defenseman Justin Faulk to new teams at the deadline.
— And the Blues added two more future pieces in Lawrence and Mason Gastrin, the brawny Swedish center-wing prospect who was obtained in the Kyrou deal.
— There is a potential downside to all of these moves … simply because there’s the potential of disappointment in every move. But I respect Armstrong’s motives for doing what he did. He made these deals for the right reasons, and that’s the best way to go about it.
Thanks for reading …
— Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Keith Tkachuk, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.