Examining some curiosities …
RILEY O’BRIEN
A franchise tradition continues, and congratulations are in order as we salute O’Brien for becoming the 11th closer in Cardinals history to be selected for the National League All-Star team.
How many can you name?
(Play the Final Jeopardy music.)
OK, time’s up!
This is listed in chronological order, and I’ve included (in parenthesis) how many times each pitcher was honored with an All-Star selection as a Cardinal.
* Bruce Sutter (3)
Todd Worrell (1)
Lee Smith (3)
Tom Henke (1)
Jason Isringhausen (1)
Ryan Franklin (1)
Edward Mujica (1)
Trevor Rosenthal (1)
Alex Reyes (1)
Ryan Helsley (2)
Riley O’Brien (1)
* Sutter was named to the All-Star squad in 1981, 1982 and 1984. But a groin injury prevented him from pitching in the ‘82 All-Star Game – and back in those days, players weren’t officially listed as All-Stars if they were unable to play. So if you look at Sutter’s Baseball Reference page, you won’t see “AS” listed in the awards citations next to his name for ‘82. That season he finished third in the National League Cy Young voting and fifth in the MVP balloting.
OK, now let’s get back to O’Brien. He leads the NL with 22 saves, and bulk saves mean a lot in choosing closers for All-Star spots.
O’Brien is having an interesting and volatile season. There have been three phases.
1) O’Brien was virtually untouchable in his first 13 appearances of 2026. The pertinent numbers were 13 and ⅓ innings, no earned runs allowed, no walks conceded, only six hits yielded, a 33.3 percent strikeout rate, seven saves, one blown save, a perfect 0.00 ERA, and a 1.09 fielding independent ERA. Absolutely brilliant.
2) In his next 13 assignments O’Brien was extremely hittable and absorbed considerable punishment. His formidable sinker suddenly lost effectiveness, and the ensuing results were startling. The pertinent numbers: 13 innings, 18 hits, five walks, four hit batters, one homer, 22 earned runs and an 8.31 ERA. His strikeout rate during this time was a less imposing 21.8%. He had seven saves in 10 opportunities and was no longer a sure thing. After limiting opponents to a 31 percent hard-hit rate in his first 13 appearances, the hard-hit rate against him jumped to 44%. And his ground-ball rate – 69% early on – fell to 46% during this stretch.
3) Bouncing back? In his 10 most recent relief assignments, beginning June 3, O’Brien has recovered – but only to an extent. If we want to be truthful here, O’Brien isn’t all the way back in form, and his vulnerability is still a factor. The pertinent stats in O’Brien’s last 10 relief spots include a perfect 8-for-8 in save opps, and a 2.70 ERA. But under the surface we see a shockingly low 13.6 percent strikeout rate, an alarmingly high 16% walk rate, and an expected ERA of 5.62.
Look at the progression of the contact rate against O’Brien on pitches in the strike zone over the three different phases: 79.6%, to 87.8%, to 95.2%. Yikes.
Here’s the average exit velocity triggered on him during each of the three phases: 83.5 mph, to 89.6 mph, to 92.2 mph. Ouch.
All of this reflects the gradual and dramatic decline of his strikeout rate.
For the Cardinals to hang in wild-card contention, push for a winning season, or potentially receive a valuable return in a trade for O’Brien, he’ll have to clean up some of the statistical litter when the Cardinals reenter the action after the All-Star break.
THE HOME-ROAD SPLITS
I've been all over this ... and I will stay all over this ... because it's a big deal.
In the breakdown of STL's performance – home and road – the short-hand version is this:
— Road: No. 2 in the majors, 5.53 runs per game.
— Home: No. 26 in the majors, 3.68 runs per game.
That’s an average of 1.85 runs more per game on the road than at home! There are similar disparities in STL’s home-road rankings in slugging percentage, OPS, and home runs per game.
On the road, offensively the Cardinals are like the 2005-2006 model of Jim Edmonds. At home they’re more like the 2013-2014 version of Peter Bourjos. (Remember him?)
But I wanted to look at the individual hitters to identify the Cardinals who are above-average offensive performers whether they’re hitting at Busch Stadium, or taking their swings on the road.
I’ll use wRC+ … all you need to know is 100 is league average. So being at 100 is fine, and producing higher than that is good! Falling below 100 is undesirable – though it’s hardly shameful to sit at slightly below average.
Best St. Louis hitters at home this season, per wRC+ …
Lars Nootbaar, 79% above average
Jordan Walker, 37% above average
Nelson Velazquez, 37% above average
Alec Burleson, 4% above average.
That’s it. Those are the only four Cardinals above league average in their home hitting performance at Busch. Jose Fermin and Ivan Herrera are each 3% below average at home. I’m surprised to see Herrera there below average.
OK, now here are the team’s worst hitters at Busch Stadium so far …
Masyn Winn, 11% below average
Nathan Church, 15% below average
JJ Wetherholt, 16% below average
Pedro Pages, 22% below average
Bryan Torres, 29% below average
Dang! I was surprised to see JJ Wetherholt’s name on that list. But in a way it makes at least a little sense, given that this is JJ’s first exposure to the tricky, difficult hitting environment at Busch. Give him more rounds at this particular golf course and his scores will improve.
Well … that’s what I thought, anyway.
The weird thing is, JJ’s struggles at Busch have gotten worse by the month.
March-April: 33% above average
May: 23% below average
June-July: 61% below average. (WHAT?)
Here are the home/road slash lines for Wetherholt in 2026. Batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage …
Home: .243/.304/.352
Road: .285/.410/.461
Can you imagine the kind of numbers Wetherholt would generate with the cheap-hit, cheap-homer Great American Ball Park as his home yard? Or putting him at Coors Field for 81 games? He would probably do extensive damage at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, his “home” park because of where he grew up.
I can think of many other Wetherholt-friendly locales, but I sincerely believe he’ll kick Busch Stadium’s backside in due time.
OK, now what about the best on-the-road hitters among the Cardinals?
* Velazquez, 59% above average
Herrera, 56% above average
Walker, 47% above average
Wetherholt, 46% above average
Burleson, 37% above average
* Torres, 31% above average
Blaze Jordan, 8% above average
Fermin, exactly league average.
(Rookie Nathan Church is just a tad below average at 5%)
* What are the asterisks for? Just my way of noting that Velazquez and Torres have fewer than 30 plate appearances on the road so far. The one name that surprises me the most is to see Nootbaar at 44 percent below average on the road in 53 plate appearances. That’s also a small sample, and Noot will likely sizzle up.
To wrap this up: the only three Cardinals who have produced an above-average performance at home and on the road are Walker, Velazquez and Burleson.
LAST THING: STATE OF THE OUTFIELD
Slugging prospect Joshua Baez is still at Triple A Memphis despite launching 28 homers and muscling for a .596 slugging percentage this season.
Here’s one of the reasons: the St. Louis outfield has turned up the dial offensively. It’s become a strong source of power and on-base skill since Nootbaar returned from the IL to make his season debut on June 5. Shortly before that the Cardinals had promoted Velazquez and Torres from Memphis. And Church returned from the IL on June 9.
In 366 plate appearances since June 5, here’s where the St. Louis outfield ranks collectively (offensively) among the 30 MLB outfield units:
– .272 batting average, 9th
– .342 onbase rate, 9th
– .476 slug, 7th
– .817 OPS, 9th
– 14 home runs, 8th
– 125 wRC+, 8th
– 53 RBIs, 3rd
– 20 doubles, 3rd
– .920 OPS with RISP, 6th
– .951 OPS in high-leverage, 7th
Over this time period, a little over a month, 97 percent of the outfield-based plate appearances have been made by Walker, Nootbaar, Church, Velazquez, Fermin and Torres.
I’ve thrown a lot of numbers at you.
Thanks for checking some of this out.
My curiosity led to some answers.
Thanks for reading …
—Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Keith Tkachuk, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.