As I type this, we’re 21 days from the March 26 regular-season opener at Busch Stadium. Three weeks.
How about some Bird Bytes?
– It will be a very nice day, in the future, when top outfield prospect Josh Baez gets The Call to come to St. Louis and join the Cardinals. It won’t be anytime soon, but the 22-year old right-handed hitter is doing his best to rearrange the timetable. And he apparently will do this with force. Baez cudgeled a 436-foot two-run homer against the Orioles on Friday, and mixed in a walk. After an uneven start to the exhibition-game season, Baez has gone 4 for 8 with two walks in his last five games.
– Through 17 plate appearances this spring, Baez is batting .333 with a stellar .444 on-base percentage and .533 slug. After striking out five times in his first five games of the Grapefruit season, Baez has gone four straight games without a strikeout in his box score. It’s been an exciting preview of what Baez can be. And though his time in the bigs will come later, Baez is determined to give the Cardinals something to think about. They’ve been in no rush to say goodbye to him.
– If we must be careful about overreacting to spring training stats, well, does that also apply to fourth-year outfielder Jordan Walker? He was 0 for 3 with a strikeout (and one RBI) in Friday’s 10-2 steaming of the Orioles. The quiet day left Walker with a .211 average and .497 OPS this spring, and all four of his hits are singles. Walker is also hitting the ball on the ground too often. In one sense, this means nothing because he’ll get three weeks of at-bats before the real baseball games begin. But on the other hand, I was hoping to see Walker get off to a positive start in Jupiter.
– The Cardinals may be short on entertainment value this season – we’ll see – but when Ivan Herrera is waving his right-handed swing, then sit back and enjoy the show. He may even include some fireworks. I was fiddling around with some numbers Friday after thinking about how Herrera bludgeoned left-handed pitching in 2025. In 124 plate appearances against lefties, last season Herrera batted .330 with a .455 OBP and .660 slug for a 1.115 OPS. That’s spectacular.
– OK, here’s what I wanted to find out: during the Albert Pujols Era, which began in 2001, who were the best right-handed hitting Cardinals against lefty pitching in a season? This is based on a minimum of 120 plate appearances. Here’s what I came up with, and as you gaze at this keep in mind that the league-average wRC+ is 100. (That’s adjusted runs created).
Here are the top five performances by a right-handed STL hitter against LH pitching in a season over the past 25 years:
Paul Goldschmidt, 264 wRC+, 2022
Pujols, 216 wRC+, 2008
Pujols 212, wRC+, 2022
Scott Rolen, 210 wRC+, 2004
Ivan Herrera, 205 wRC+, 2025
He’s got more of that coming.
– Jimmy Crooks and Leo Bernal as the catching crew for Triple A Memphis this season? It sure seems like it’s heading that way. Yohel Pozo? You mean the dude who may be more popular than Yadier Molina? Yes. He’ll be here as a catcher along with Herrera and Pedro Pages and will also serve as a backup at 1B.
– The trading of a Cardinals catcher is inevitable and necessary. There’s too many guys wearing armor and the logjam makes it impossible for all of them to play for the big club. Hell, all of the catchers are renting space until Raniel Rodriguez, age 19, arrives in the St. Louis for major-league duty to the sounds of trumpets, cymbals and bass drums.
– If the Cardinals go with six starters, and the early schedule makes it convenient, then there’s not much to agonize over. Because as of now the six will be Matthew Liberatore, Dustin May, Michel McGreevy, Richard Fitts, Kyle Leahy and Andre Pallante.
– In Pallante’s case, performance probably doesn’t matter much because he’s out of options and would have to clear waivers to be sentenced to Triple A Memphis. We’ll see what POBO Chaim Bloom decides.
– I suppose Pallante could be used out of the bullpen against LH batters, which we’ve seen in the past. Though Pallante is a righty, he’s limited left-handed hitters to a career slash line of .242/.304/.365. (That said, LHB muscled Pallante for a .329 OPB, .434 slug and 10 homers last season.) But if it’s a six-man rotation turn, Pallante could receive a few more chances to show he’s worth additional investment of time.
– Forgive me for this smarty-pants comment: I just hope that Pallante isn’t to Chaim Bloom what Erick Fedde was to John Mozeliak.
– If Richard Fitts keeps pitching as he has so far in Florida, and he doesn’t make the early-season rotation, then I will start to believe that Mozeliak is back and secretly running the Cardinals.
– If it’s a five-man rotation with the occasional sixth starter, it seems the decision could-or-would come down to Kyle Leahy or Pallante for the 5th spot. Leahy was so brilliant and valuable in his unique bullpen role last season I can see why the Cardinals would consider doing it again in 2026.
– Again, I understand that Pallante is out of minor-league options. But is that fair to Leahy after so much offseason hullabaloo about his big opportunity to claim a spot in the rotation. And Bloom traded a reliever with options (Andre Granillo) for a reliever with no remaining options (George Soriano.)
– Hell, Quinn Mathews is gonna be knocking one of these guys the heck out of the rotation before long. He didn’t fail to be an elite pitching prospect just because he had shoulder miseries in 2024. This is known as an injury. His left arm is still attached and evidently working well. Mathews struck out 7 of the Pirates he faced Thursday and got 12 whiff-swings.
– According to the Pitch Profiler account on X, Mathews had a 37.5% whiff rate on his four-seamer, a 57.1% whiff rate on his changeup, a 66.7% whiff rate on his slider, and a 100% whiff rate on his curve. As Pitch Profiler put it: WHIFF MACHINE!
– Well, hello there Dustin May. Damn, dude! His first official spring-training turn was a three-inning shutdown of the Pirates and he posted strong Stuff+ ratings on his sinker, four-seam and sweeper.
– Here’s what Pitch Profiler had to say about that: “Dustin May is BACK. In his spring training debut and first look with the Cardinals, he returned to the mound and gave Pittsburgh three scoreless innings. The hair is flowing, the ball was jumping, and it just felt right seeing him out there again.”
– Nelson Velazquez is trying to win the left field job, and after a slow start, he’s cooking. After homering (his first) against the Orioles on Friday, “V” is batting .294 with a .529 slug amd .897 OPS this spring. He needs to keep doing that to get a uniform for opening day. That said, the Cardinals can place Velazquez at Triple A Memphis to start the season because there’s no danger of losing him to a waiver claim. There won’t be a waiver claim because he signed a minor-league deal and the Cardinals can just move him to Memphis without worry. If Velazquez starts 2026 in Memphis and goes into the wrecking-crew mode, the Cardinals will know how to get in touch with him.
– Yeah, I’m also rooting for lefty reliever Packy Naughton to make the big club. Heck of a comeback.
MAKES ME WANNA HOLLER
I still see people touting Riley O’Brien as the closer for 2026 over Matt Svanson … pardon me while I scratch my head. I don’t understand. This is a classic example of media (especially) and fans overrating one player and underrating another. It’s actually funny to me that folks can be so oblivious.
Could we possibly do a little homework? Here’s a simple comparison, and I won’t give you the stats. I’ll just list the categories and then type in either “O’Brien” or “Svanson” to identity who had the better numbers in MLB last season. In one instance I used a minor-league stat because it proved a point that should be made.
Shall we play?
Most career innings: Svanson
Best ERA: Svanson
Best adjusted ERA: Svanson
Best strikeout rate: Svanson
Best walk rate: Svanson
Best WHIP: SvansonBest K-BB ratio: Svanson
Best HR rate: tie
Best against RHB: Svanson
Best against LHB: Svanson
Best in high-leverage spots: Svanson
Most saves, majors+minors: Svanson
Fewer times on IL: Svanson
Fewer days missed on IL: Svanson
Notes: Svanson had a few blown saves in his early minor-league days, but since 2023 he’s converted 38 of 40 save opps in pro ball. Translation: he can handle it, so relax. Svanson didn’t get a chance to close out games for the Cardinals last season because he was more valuable in the high-leverage role setup role he took over. O’Brien has six major-league saves – but also three blown saves in MLB. But O’Brien’s success rate (for saves) in the minors was pretty much spotless.
As for injuries: O’Brien has been on the IL at least twice in the majors, but that’s misleading because he was shut down on at least three other occasions without being placed on the IL. The estimated total of days missed to injury as a big-league reliever: 153. Svanson has had one minor ailment in his pro career that caused him to miss seven days.
Am I missing something?
Have a great weekend and thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.