The St. Louis Cardinals need a bunch of things to go their way this season to make the postseason, including breakouts from many players whose time may be running thin with the birds on the bat. With all the eyes on JJ Wetherholt this season, and seeing how he fares at the major league level, he would be on this list except he is probably the most obvious pick in the entire league to be a breakout star this season.
The first pick on this list is going to be starting pitcher Michael McGreevy. The right-hander saw bulk time with the Cardinals at the end of last season and spot starts in the season and a half leading up to his call-up to join the rotation fully. In his 21 career appearances in the bigs, McGreevy has posted a 3.94 ERA and an above league average ground ball rate and below league average flyball rate. Not a pitcher that is going to come out and strikeout 15 a game, but is certainly one that can play to his strengths with a strong infield, headlined by Gold Glove winner Masyn Winn.
Another standout stat that has McGreevy primed for a breakout season is his walk rate, which was 93rd percentile in Major League Baseball last season. Limiting the free pass is important in baseball, and McGreevy has been able to do that at an elite rate by challenging hitters. With a strong defense behind him, he will be able to keep that up and challenge hitters this season, keeping that walk rate down. The former No. 11 prospect in the Cardinals' system is primed to take charge on the mound this season and be one of the most trusted arms in the Cardinals' rotation.
This one may feel as if he has already broken out, but Cardinals fans should be looking for a specific performance from shortstop Masyn Winn. I am looking for the Cardinals' defensive mastermind to make the jump offensively this season. Winn underwent surgery to repair his right knee in the offseason and is one player who is prepared to make a jump at the plate.
Winn has shown his prowess on the defensive side, but don’t expect him to become a .300 hitter overnight. Winn hit .253 last season with nine home runs. The realistic jump is to bring him closer to .270, which he has before hitting .267 in 2024, but to see his OBP increase to a .330 clip would be ideal. Winn has mentioned wanting to run more on the bases when the media got to catch up with him at Winter Warm Up.
If Winn can increase his ability to get on base, it will open the door for him to swipe more bags and be able to use his speed. In the minors, Winn was able to break the 30-steal mark twice in three seasons. Since making his debut in 2023, Winn has only stolen 22 bases at the major league level. With Winn on base more, he will have more opportunities to steal and could even turn into the ideal leadoff man for the Cardinals this season.
This might be the pick that loses some of you, but Nolan Gorman is in his fifth season and is running out of time. There is not a lot of raw power on the Cardinals' roster, and Gorman has the most, but the issue is the strikeouts. While not reading too much into spring training numbers, he has struck out just six times in 37 trips to the batter's box in the Grapefruit League.
Gorman had what felt like a breakout season in 2023 with 27 home runs and 76 RBIs, but since then, his batting average has dipped, and his strikeout rate has not gotten better. If he is going to be back in the heart of the Cardinals' order this season at a consistent rate, he will have to provide the power.
Randy Karraker mentioned that Gorman went to see a “mystery hitting guru” in the winter, and so far it seems to be panning out. With some consistency given back to Gorman in the lineup this season, he could be able to break that 30 home run mark, one that no Cardinal has hit since the 2022 season, where Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado both hit 30+ home runs. It is not going to be an all-over breakout for Gorman, but he has a serious chance to right the ship on his Cardinal career and dial back the strikeouts and hit for more home runs this season.
More and more excitement for the Cardinals' youth is in the air of St. Louis, and while the season can be filled with twists and turns, highs and lows, the Cardinals know what the plan is and that the future is where the sights are set, and that this season is a stepping stone in the long-term plan.