The most surprising development of the season?
That would be the ongoing improvement of the St. Louis pitching staff.
And the improvement is happening.
And it’s real.
Look, as I’ve said before, I am fully aware of the underlying metrics that strongly warn of susceptibility. Cardinal pitchers yield a contact rate that’s too high, leaving them prone to having too many balls in play.
As a group, they’ve been smacked for an excessively high hard-hit rate. In the first 60 games against Cards pitching this season, opponents have ripped 702 batted balls that traveled 95+ miles per hour. That hard-hit percentage (43.5%) against Redbird arms is the highest against any pitching staff in the majors.
OK, that said, those numbers are less imposing now. And that should be noted. Cardinal pitchers are a little less vulnerable than they were earlier in the season.
Why? Because their collective strikeout rate has gone up. And their swing-miss rate has increased. They are missing more bats now. Here’s what I’m referring to:
— The staff strikeout rate was 17.8 percent in March-April but is 22.5% since May 1.
— The starting-pitcher strikeout rate, a sad 16.7% in March-April, is 22.1% since the beginning of May.
— The bullpen strikeout rate was 19.1% during March-April and is 23% since the start of May.
— The overall contact rate against STL pitchers was 81.3% during the first month - but is 77% since May 1. The drop is meaningful.
— The contact rate against STL pitchers on strikes (Z-Con) was 89.5% during the first month but has decreased a bit to 88.7% since May 1.
— Starting pitchers were struck for an overall contact rate of 82.3% in the first month; it’s 77.3% since May 1.
— The starters’ contact rate on their pitches in the strike zone is 89.7% since May 1 after being at 91% in March-April.
So yeah, all of this adds up in a good way. There’s less exposure to batted-ball bullets now because there are fewer bullets.
That’s reflected by a slightly lower hard-hit rate and a substantial decrease in the rate of home runs popped against St. Louis pitchers.
Consider:
— In March-April Cardinal pitchers gave up 1.19 home runs per 9 innings which ranked 22nd in the majors.
— Since May 1 the HRs per 9 innings against St. Louis is 0.83 – and that’s the second-best mark among the 30 pitching staffs.
— Cardinal pitchers were smacked for 84 extra-base hits in their first 31 games. But since May 1, in 29 games, the extra-base hits count against them is 69. So the average yield of 2.7 XBH per game during the first month has dropped 14.8 percent over the next 29 games.
===============
This systemic improvement has given the St. Louis pitching staff a much nicer earned-run average to look at.
Here’s the ERA reduction from the first 31 games compared to the next 29 games. (Month to month.)
+ Entire staff: 4.76 ERA in March-April, but 3.49 in May-June. Rate of improvement: 26.7 percent.
+ Starting pitchers: 4.46 ERA in March-April; then 3.63 in May-June. Rate of improvement, 18.6%.
+ Bullpen: 5.15 ERA in March-April; 3.26 in May-June. Rate of improvement, 36.6%.
+ This is one of my favorite stats -- because it's so revealing: Cardinal starting pitchers had a quality-start rate of 29.1 percent in March April. But since the beginning of May, their quality start rate is an impressive 41.3%, which is sixth best in the majors over that time. The percentage of the Cards improvement in quality-start rate from March-April to May-June is 42.4%. Very nice!
+ Why is this so important? Well, when the Cardinals get a quality start from their pitcher in a game this season their record is 15-6 for a winning percentage of .714.
The upturn in pitching can be the foundation for a higher percentage of winning. But that would happen a lot easier if Lars Nootbaar and Jimmy Crooks and other hitters can boost the St. Louis lineup to score more runs.
The team’s tighter run prevention is a welcome and beneficial development, but let’s put it this way: the Cardinals’ offense can’t continue suppressing itself with so many low-scoring games. Or the enhanced pitching performance will go to waste.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.