At the 81-game mark, the halfway point of the baseball season, the St. Louis Cardinals are sitting in a position that few thought they would inhabit this quickly based on the tenor of the offseason moves orchestrated by incoming president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom.
We knew the Cardinals would scale back this season in terms of payroll and proven veterans present on the roster, so it’s not any sort of disparagement to the club to state that, when 2026 began, folks didn’t peg them for an immediate postseason spot.
But that’s exactly where the Cardinals are after their 81st game.
At 43-38, the Cardinals are on an 86-win pace, sitting percentage points ahead of the Marlins for the third NL Wild Card spot entering the start of play Tuesday. The Cardinals open a new series in Atlanta on Tuesday night.
Now, the most recent week of play for the Cardinals featured a disappointing homestand against a pair of fellow NL Wild Card hopefuls. The bat mustered just 13 runs over six games as the offense hit a lull. But at least the Cards managed to space their runs out somewhat effectively, winning two of the six games behind timely pitching efforts.
Should the recency of the scoring woes inform our opinions on the offense more so than the collective results of the first half? Though it’s been lean of late, the Cardinals still rank a respectable 15th, smack-dab in the middle of the league in OPS (.717) in the full season numbers.
The club’s 4.26 ERA ranks 19th in the league, with that breakdown slightly favoring the starters (4.19, 12th in MLB) over the bullpen (4.37, 19th in MLB). Defense and base running are still priorities for the Cardinals. Though execution can vary in those categories, I’m comfortable earmarking the club for above-average performances in both, particularly with the glovework.
But where does all of that information land the Cardinals over the second half of the season? Nothing tangibly changes at the halfway point about the way the clubhouse approaches its business, so is it as simple as doubling the win total and expecting the Cardinals to end up as an 86-game winner?
I am of the opinion that we’ve seen enough baseball from this team to believe our eyes, and the record. I don’t anticipate the bottom falling out of this thing. However, the Cardinals have largely played .500 baseball over the last couple months, going 25-25 in their past 50 games.
Generally, there’s nothing wrong with building a cushion and then playing .500 ball the rest of the way. The problem with it in 2026, though, is the burden of proof that rests on the shoulders of the players and coaches to compel the front office to do anything other than sell off expiring and other short-term assets ahead of the August 3 trade deadline.
Another .500 month before that conversation really ramps up in the final week of July would be no small feat considering some of the quality competition the Cardinals face in the coming weeks.
Before the All-Star break alone, the Cards see the NL West-leading Braves six times, the Central-leading Brewers five times, and the rival Cubs for three at Wrigley. But would treading water for the next month put Bloom and Co. in position to press pause on plans to sell at the deadline?
While I view the Cardinals as constructed as a team capable of going the distance in a battle for a Wild Card spot throughout the second half, a healthy dose of winning will have to come within the next few weeks in order to ensure the Cardinals as constructed remain the Cardinals as we’ll know them over the final two months of the season.