Hello, and welcome to my new feature here at STL Sports Central: Breakfast with Bernie, which I’ll write early in the morning on most weekdays. And if I’m a little late it’ll be “Brunch with Bernie.” I’ll serve up observations, opinions, notes, facts, stats, praise, cheap shots, randomness, analysis and some weirdness as I have my first cuppa or two or three of the day. At times we’ll go “buffet” style for morning grazing, and later in the day I’ll author a new column. On most days, I’ll lead off with a Cards recap. There will be plenty of baseball info served here, with emphasis on the Cardinals.
Your St. Louis Cardinals closed out June by packing for another road adventure. Three games in Atlanta, then three at Wrigley Field.
Since Tuesday’s trip-opening game was played at Truist Park – 540 driving miles from Busch Stadium – the birds with the bats put the timber to use.
The Cardinals flexed. Like, you know, muscling up and swinging for multiple home runs. Their power stroke put runs on the board. Metaphorically speaking, the Redbirds did not die on the warning track, which is often the case at Busch Stadium.
And Matthew Liberatore … where has that been? The Cardinals and their fans were happy to accept the blessings of run prevention.
Here’s why the Cardinals defeated the Braves 5-3 …
1. The Cardinals made like Bob Dylan at the 1965 Newport Jazz Festival. They plugged in. And there you go; that’s my somewhat vague music reference of the day, written to confuse the kids. (Google it.) Nelson Velazquez rocked a solo home run. Nathan Church committed a left-on-left crime, raising the truncheon to blast Braves starter Martin Perez for a three-run shot. Two swings. Four runs. Same inning.
Here are your statistical gewgaws:
— In their last 10 home games in June, the Cardinals hit 3 home runs, homered every 102 at-bats, slugged .281 (sad) and scored 2.5 runs per event.
— In their last 10 road games in June, the Cardinals blasted 20 home runs, homered every 18.1 at-bats, slugged .517 and scored 6.9 runs per competition.
— Road: this season the Cards are averaging 5.32 runs, 2nd in the majors to the Dodgers.
— Home: the Cards are averaging 3.75 runs, ranking 26th overall and 13th among the 15 NL teams.
— Road slugging pct: the Cardinals rank 6th in the majors.
— Home slugging pct: the Cardinals rank 26th in the majors.
— This season the Cards are averaging 1.29 homers per road game and 0.92 homers per home game.
— The road‑to‑home HR gap is about a 40.2% difference. That’s huge. Most teams have a much smaller home-road differential in the home-run distribution – between 5% and 15% – unless their home park is extremely suppressive. And Busch Stadium is suppressing home runs dramatically in 2026.
2. Matthew Liberatore, the statue of liberty. Or something like that. But after absorbing more punches than Leon Spinks back in the day, Liberatore stood firm and tall and declared: enough! Libby had an unusual pitching line: 5 innings, one hit, one earned run, four walks, a hit batter and nine strikeouts. His work shift was summed up nicely in the second inning: two walks, then three consecutive strikeouts.
Consuming 98 pitches, Liberatore lasted only 21 batters. Before his removal he pitched to one batter in the 6th and walked him. But this was a major performance upswing in what we’ve (mostly) witnessed from him this season. He came into this game ranked 90th among 95 starting pitchers in ERA.
Liberatore’s 66 game score Tuesday was his best of the season – and his third best over the last two seasons. His best pitch was the slider; he got six of his nine strikeouts with it, and five of the six slider punch-outs were swinging.
For the game, his whiff-swing rate on the slider was 50%. Liberatore’s four-seam fastball was effective and the Braves seemed to be caught off guard by it; they took eight called strikes when he flung it. The changeup was a nice diversion that kept the Braves off balance.
3. A change behind the plate: Liberatore and catcher Ivan Herrera worked well together after manager Oli Marmol decided to go with Herrera instead of Libby’s regular catcher, Pedro Pages. Liberatore’s ERA when pitching to Pages this season is 5.66. The biggest difference was Herrera and Liberatore relying more extensively on the slider in this one. For the season he’s thrown it about 22% of the time; against the Braves he went with the slider 35% of the time.
4. The bullpen … survived: Liberatore handed off to George Soriano, who handed off to JoJo Romero, who handed off to Ryan Fernandez, who handed off to closer Riley O’Brien. There were a few fumbles during all of these handoffs, but somehow the Cardinals recovered most of them. It was a hectic four innings of protecting a 5-1 lead: 20 batters, five hits, three walks, two runs, a wild pitch. Romero was a mess, and Fernandez was a mess – but no play-by-play will be presented here. I’m sure the antacid tablets were being popped by Cardinal fans watching at home. The St. Louis bullpen isn’t as trustworthy in 2026, but on Tuesday these fellas held on … for dear life, as they say. But the lead was protected and the win was sealed.
5. The Cardinals kept the Braves down. Atlanta came into the game with a 4-12 record and an offense that batted .212 and scored 2.9 runs per game during the 16-game tailspin. The Cardinals came in at four games under .500 since May 20, including a 3-7 mark in the previous 10 games. It was important for the Redbirds to get busy reversing their recent trends – and also keep the slumping Braves from getting back up. If the Braves fritter away their lead in the NL East – which may be probable at this point – the Cardinals would have Atlanta as a threat in the NL wild-card race. The Cards have 13 games before the All-Star break and will play the Braves in five of the 13. Atlanta has lost 13 of its last 17 games and lead the second-place Phillies by 2 and ½ games. On May 22, the Braves led the NL East by 10 and ½ games.
— The Cardinals are 44-38 (.537) and have the eighth-best record overall and the sixth best in the National League.
— The Cubs and Phillies share the lead for the top NL wild-card spot with the Cardinals two games behind them. The Cards are in the third wild-card position, only two percentage points ahead of the Marlins. The Padres, who have lost four straight, trail the Cardinals by two games and the Diamondbacks are next at 2 and ½ games in arrears of St. Louis.
— What’s it going to be for the U.S. tonight in the knockout-round match against Bosnia and Herzegovina? The Round of 32 is usually the end of the line for the USMNT in World Cup play, but the homelanders should get a tremendous boost from the pro-USA crowd at the San Francisco Bay Area Stadium where the NFL 49ers play.
— The U.S. is the betting favorite to get past Bosnia and Herzegovina and into the round of 16 for the first time since 2022. And USMNT hasn’t reached the final eight since 2002.
— But the U.S. will be pushing against a wall of history in this match. Starting with the 1990 FIFA World Cup, the USMNT’s record against European teams in this hallowed tournament is 1 win, 13 losses, and 7 draws. The lone triumph came over Ronaldo and Portugal in the 2002 group stage opener. Since that stunning result, the U.S. is on a 13-game winless streak against European sides in World Cup play.
— But does that really matter? If this talented and confident U.S. team freaking out over ghosts of the past? I doubt that. Doesn’t the home field provide comfort? I would think so; that’s one of the reasons why it’s such a big deal to have the USA serving as one of three hosts along with Canada and Mexico.
— There is intense pressure, however. Not because of past failures. The pressure is there, and it’s thick, for two reasons: (1) the homefield advantage is supposed to be a huge plus. (2) This 2026 U.S. collection of players is viewed as the most talented and capable squad to represent the U.S. in the World Cup. Both of these factors come with an attached “Prove It” proviso. If not now – then when? And we’re not talking about winning the World Cup. It’s more about making a statement by advancing into the deeper stages of this competition to strengthen the program’s credibility and prestige.
— Since 1990, the U.S. is an abysmal 1-5 in the first knockout stage. That can’t happen again. And we’ve seen some startling upsets in this World Cup so far, so what would be the U.S. excuse for falling short again?
— Bosnia and Herzegovina is not an easy opponent. But it is also an underdog. The U.S. is alert and will not be casual about the potential threat in this match. And the upbeat news for coach Mauricio Pochettino’s team is having the entire starting lineup from the 4-1 win over Paraguay intact and ready for service. This includes Christian Pulisic, who sat during the win over Australia due to a calf injury.
— I’m no Bill McDermott, but it seems to me that the U.S. must succeed in three areas …
— 1. Continue its trend of fast starts by relentlessly hunting the opening goal. The Bosnian side is built on a sturdy structure and you want to make them vacate the preferred structure and chase the game. If this one is 0-0 late, all the pressure on the United States will be overbearing. There is no question about that.
— 2. This is it for Christian Pulisic. It’s his time. This is his opportunity to move into the true pantheon of U.S. soccer immortals. Pulisic has only logged 77 minutes of action in this World Cup, and by choice he’s rested and ready and loaded with sustainable energy. The captain is the catalyst, and his ability to drive at defenders and draw a crowd opens space for teammates on the flank and in the internal gaps.
— 3. No letdowns. No retreat. The U.S. didn’t need to defeat Türkiye in the final group match – but shouldn’t have lost by relinquishing an early lead and later getting jolted by a last-second goal that broke a 2-2 tie. The U.S. will have to wrangle a dangerous young attacker like Ermin Mahmić, who already has two goals in this World Cup. Captain Tim Ream and the center-back pairing can’t lose position.
— Prediction? The midfield trio of Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie and Malik Tillman will dominate possession. Bosnia and Herzegovina has just a 44% possession time in this World Cup; the U.S. is at 60%. And that imbalance will create more opportunities for the U.S. Pulisic will score a goal … and he will also spring the dangerous Folarin Balogun into an open lane for a lethal finish. USMNT 2-1.
Thanks for reading …
—Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Keith Tkachuk, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.