If there’s a starting job truly available in left field, Nelson Velazquez is making a power move to claim it. He’s marching toward the open spot …
As in Marching into the month with a .462 average, .563 onbase percentage and .923 in his first five games since the calendar flipped out of February.
(As for those Velazquez numbers. I don’t want to upset the small-sample size police who patrol social media, looking for violators. So yeah, officers, I know: small sample, spring training, small sample spring training, small sample, spring training. Got it! Thank you for giving me a break!)
Other than rookie prospect Joshua Baez, no St. Louis outfielder is making a stronger play for an opening-day roster spot than Velazquez.
That’s especially true after the Cardinals assigned Banger Baez to Memphis to maul Triple A pitching for added experience. There’s no need to rush Baez to the bigs … not when Velazquez has rushed into contention for the starting job in left.
I don’t know if the competition is on the level. Velazquez isn’t on the 40-man roster. Oh my goodness! A grand tradition of St. Louis baseball media is constant fretting over 40-man roster space. A reincarnated Babe Ruth could suddenly walk out of a corn field, fully alive and intact, and eligible to sign a major-league contract and play immediately.
But if the Babe wanted to play for the Cardinals – he loved the St. Louis night-life pleasures back in the day… as one scribe wrote in a look-back to Ruth’s colorful career after the Bambino’s passing:
“St. Louis was a hot-spot stop for the Bambino because May Traynor's classy brothel on Forest Park Boulevard was his favorite on the American League circuit.”
Great, but I guarantee this much: if Babe showed up at Busch Stadium, ready to blast 57 home runs for the 2026 Cardinals, multiple baseball writers and assorted media types would immediately start convulsing in the press box.
“ARE YOU CRAZY?
"THE CARDINALS WOULD HAVE TO MAKE ROOM FOR BABE RUTH ON THE 40-MAN ROSTER!
"THERE’S NO SPACE ON THE 40-MAN!
"THE CARDINALS WOULD RISK LOSING JOSE FERMIN!
Some of this is already going down with Velazquez … the lectures about the dire, unsolvable 40-man roster complications that would undoubtedly occur if the Cardinals attempted to give Velazquez a uniform and a 40-man invite and a place in the starting lineup for the March 26 season opener.
I mean, I didn't realize the Cardinals were so deeply enriched with talent that the idea of removing a dude from the 40-man roster would be akin to giving up one of your children and lead to regret and heartache.
Hell, the Cardinals may decide to do it anyway. I mean, wasn’t that the point in signing Velazquez in January? To take a shot on a potential right-handed power source to enliven a waxen outfield offense that's about as threatening and menacing as Larry Sutton, circa 2001? (.119 avg, .354 OPS.)
Because Velazquez signed a minor-league contract, the Cardinals are free to relegate him to Memphis with no risk of losing him to a waiver claim. Because waivers don’t apply in his case.
Baez can take care of the power-hitting business down Memphis way. Velazquez seems capable of landing some heavy punches for the Cards at the big-league level. That said, it is in his best interest to finish strong in Florida. And when and if Lars Nootbaar returns, the Cardinals can reevaluate.
See, that’s the thing about the Velazquez contract: the Cardinals can transfer him to Memphis at any time. But with the current vacancy in left field, why would they do that at the start of the season?
What’s that? You’d rather see Velazquez prove himself at Memphis? That makes no sense.
Wouldn’t it be more impressive and meaningful if Velazquez proves himself in the big leagues with St. Louis?
The first year of this rebuild is mostly about discovery.
So why not discover if Velazquez can smack major-league pitchers around? I don't see an outfield of Reggie Sanders, Jim Edmonds and Larry Walker out there for the Cardinals these days. (Thinking about the 2004 and 2005 St. Louis offense makes me sad.)
Moreover, Our Man Velazquez does bring some credentials to the task. That’s an important consideration. This isn’t just a spring fling; if Velazquez has corrected his plate-discipline flaws that ended his first tour in the majors, then he has the tool to supply the slugging pop. Because Velazquez already did that in the majors, not that long ago, and he’s still only 27 years old.
And he’s made progress in the plate-discipline test. In 28 plate appearances this spring, Velazquez has five walks and two strikeouts. That translates into a 17.8 percent walk rate, and a 7% strikeout rate. And that’s outstanding. Even if it is a small sample, spring training, small sample, spring training.
Velazquez homered and had a walk in Tuesday’s road loss to the Mets. He made the drive back to Jupiter with a .348 average, .464 onbase percentage, .652 slug and 1.116 OPS.
How was the outfield competition going? Take a look at these wRC+ figures for each dude through Tuesday -- and remember that 100 is league average.
* Baez: 197, which is 97% above average.
* Velazquez: 190
* Nathan Church: 138
* Chase Davis: 86
* Jordan Walker: 37 (Sigh.)
* Victor Scott: 37 (Make that a double sigh.)
* Jose Fermin, 24
-- Footnote: This spring Scott and Walker are a combined 8 for 44 (.182) with 14 strikeouts.
-- Footnote: Thomas Saggese has a 148 wRC+ this spring, but he's had only 11 plate appearances so far.
This spring, among the 12 Cardinals that had 20+ plate appearances through Tuesday, Velazquez was either first or second in hits, batting average, onbase percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and total bases, and ranks third in walks. He also has the best walks-to-strikeouts ratio among the 12 hitters, averaging 2.5 walks per strikeout.
Now, let’s take a look at some evidence that shows us what Velazquez can do in the majors.
– Among 433 MLB hitters that have at least 600 plate appearances since the start of 2022, Velazquez ranks 106th in slugging percentage (.433). There isn't anything wrong with ranking 106th among 433. That's still way above average. That .433 slug is the same as Ian Happ, Ryan O’Hearn, and Jo Adell and puts him above Ozzie Albies, Randy Arozarena, Lawrence Butler, Ramon Laureano, Alec Bohm, Alec Burleson, Xander Bogaerts, Austin Hays, Daulton Varsho, Nick Castellanos, Wyatt Langford, Sean Murphy, Oneil Cruz, Trevor Story, Adley Rutschman and Spencer Torkelson.
– Playing for the Cubs and Royals in 2023, Velazquez homered every 9.5 at-bats. That was the best HR ratio in the majors that season among hitters that had at least 175 plate appearances.
– Velazquez cranked 17 home runs in 162 at-bats in 2023. Yep, that’s a smallish sample – but his HR ratio was slightly better than that of Aaron Judge in ‘23. But look at it another way … a total of 460 MLB hitters had 175+ plate appearances that season, and Velazquez was No. 1 on the HR ratio leaderboard.
– Among the 460 hitters that had at least 175 PA in 2023, Velazquez ranked 6th with a .586 slugging percentage. The only five MLB hitters that had a higher slug than Velazquez were Shohei Ohtani, Corey Seager, Aaron Judge, Matt Olson and Ronald Acuna Jr.
– For his big league career, Velazquez has homered every 17.8 at-bats. How good is that? Well, among MLB hitters that had 600+ plate appearances from 2022 through 2025, Velazquez had the 11th best HR ratio – just behind Cal Raleigh and just ahead of Rafael Devers.
– After his MLB career burned out because of the strikeout disease, Velazquez played in the Mexican League to make repairs. He reemerged with a much lower strikeout rate and a higher walk rate. In a 2025 season split between baseball in Mexico and the Triple A level in the U.S. minors, Velazquez slugged .552, homered every 18 at-bats, struck out less than 20 percent of the time, and posted a 12.6% walk rate that inflated his OBP to .407.
The new STL front office made an astute signing by bringing in Velazquez. After scrubbing down the strikeouts and polishing the walk rate, he’s at prime age for a peak-phase type of performance. And if the Cards give Velazquez a chance, he just might pay off as a no-risk signing with significant potential. We've talked about the Cardinals needing to add a right-handed batter to play the outfield -- with at least 10 free-agent possibilities mentioned. As it may turn out, the Cards already had that guy in place.
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
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Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.