I’m just ready to go with another blind, fully wired leap into March Madness.
And as someone who doesn’t “hate” Mizzou, Saint Louis U or Illinois, I’m happy that all three qualified for the NCAA Tournament in the same year for the first time since 2013.
In ‘13, SLU was a #4 seed that beat New Mexico State in the first round and got bounced by Oregon in the next game. Illinois, a No. 7 seed, got by Colorado in the opener before losing a tight one to #2 seed Miami. And Mizzou, a No. 9 seed, was sent home by Colorado State in the first round.
More trivia. Mizzou and SLU are on the same NCAA dance card for only the sixth time in the last 32 NCAA Tournaments. The years: 1994, 1995, 2000, 2012, and 2013, and 2026.
Congrats to Saint Louis coach Josh Schertz, who will be head-coaching in his first NCAA Tournament. He’s 1 for 2 in getting the Billikens in during his two seasons as the boss Billiken.
And Mizzou coach Dennis Gates has gotten the Tigers into the NCAA dance hall for the third time in his four seasons in CoMo. That’s notable because Mizzou hasn’t been on any kind of NCAA Tournament streak since two coaches (Mike Anderson, then Frank Haith) separately guided the Tigers to five consecutive NCAA appearances from 2009 through 2013.
This will be the sixth straight NCAA Tournament quest for coach Brad Underwood and Illinois. Their best showing came in 2024, with the Illini coming up one win short of the Final Four after losing to UConn by 25 points in the East Regional Final.
This year the Illini are the No. 3 seed in the South. And according to analyst Neil Paine, “Illinois leads the pack of teams projected to outperform their seeds.” So Underwood’s team is dangerous.
Before offering some insights on Thursday evening's Saint Louis U. vs. Georgia matchup, just a word in advance: I'll be back Thursday to look at Friday's Missouri (10 seed) vs. Miami (7) game.
FOR NOW, LET’S TALK BILLIKENS VS BULLDOGS
–Viewing: Thursday, 8:45 pm STL time, on CBS.
–Site: Keybank Center in Buffalo.
– Records: SLU 28-5 overall, 15-3 in A-10 standings. UGA 22-10 overall and 10-8 in SEC.
– Ratings: At KenPom, Georgia is No. 32 and Saint Louis is No. 41. Bart Torvik has UGA at No. 37 and SLU at No. 45. NCAA Net has SLU (31st) ahead of UGA (33.)
– Odds: Georgia, the #8 seed, is the favorite at minus 2.0 points. That's a change from Wednesday's line of UGA minus 2.5. The 9th-seeded Billikens are 5-9 against the spread this season in road or neutral-court games. UGA is 7-7 ATS in road or neutral games.
-- Money flow: As of Thursday afternoon, 46% of the betting handle has gone on Georgia, but SLU has attracted a high share of all bets that had been made (52%), regardless of the size of the wager.
– Trends, I: SLU will have to overcome some gloomy historical trends to get by Georgia. Atlantic 10 teams have won just four of their last 16 NCAA tourney games, both straight up and against the spread (25%).
Trends, II: Since 2014, the SEC has won every tournament clash, going 7-0, when pitted against the A-10. The average margin of victory for the winning SEC team was 12.6 points. Only one game was close, with Kentucky beating Davidson by five in 2018. In the other six encounters, the SEC team whupped the A-10 side by an average of 14.2 points.
Trends, III: Favorites are on a 21-6 roll (.778) straight up and 18-9 against the spread (66.7%) in Atlantic 10 NCAA tournament games since 2015. But Georgia is the betting favorite in this one.
Trends, IV: SLU is the No. 9 seed to Georgia’s No. 8 seed. But No. 9 seeds are the only seed line in the first round that have a winning success rate (51.9%) against the eighth-seeded side. These 8 vs. 9 games are basically coin flips.
Interesting Betting Trend: small first-round favorites of minus 1 to minus 3 are just 62-64 straight up and 51-71-4 against the spread (41.8%) since 2009. This would seemingly favor the Billikens. However: that trend has shifted over the previous three years, with the chalky favorite going 13-6 both straight up and against the spread. And Georgia is the chalky favorite in this matchup.
THE OVERVIEW
Georgia comes in having won five of its last six games. That’s in contrast to SLU, which flattened out late in the season, going an off-kilter 4-4 in their last eight. Historically, streaking power-conference teams from a top-heavy conference like the SEC have carried their momentum into the first-round success in the NCAA tourney. But then again, Georgia’s momentum was slowed by a loss to Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament opener.
A-10 teams that slip up late in the season tend to be especially vulnerable to the size and depth of SEC opponents. Georgia, for example, is among the best shot-blocking teams in the nation, ranking 10th overall in blocked-shot percentage. The Bulldogs have competed against a much tougher schedule than the Billikens; Georgia has played 13 Quad 1 games compared to SLU’s 3.
WHY I THINK SLU WILL HAVE TROUBLE
Objectively speaking, this is generally an unfavorable matchup for the Billikens, who have a lot of recent problems to fix to prevail in this one. But there is a path to victory lane for SLU, and I’ll get to that later. I’ll start with the things that concern me from the Saint Louis standpoint:
1. Georgia plays at a frantic, attacking pace that creates havoc and forces a lot of turnovers. Saint Louis also likes to rev up the pace – both teams are in the top 10 nationally – but there is a difference.
As SLU fans know, turnovers were a huge problem in the Billikens’ away/neutral conference losses to Rhode Island, Dayton (twice), and George Mason. In those four downers, SLU was minus 20 in the turnover differential. And that was lethal; in the four defeats the Billikens were outscored by 62 points on points off turnovers. They are unlikely to survive a drastic turnover disadvantage against UGA.
There are reasons for my turnover anxiety.
Let’s start with this, some basic facts:
– Georgia’s defense is 77th nationally in forced-turnover rate, and that puts UGA in the 80th percentile. SLU’s offense ranks 230th nationally in turnover percentage, which puts the Bills in the 37th percentile. Not good.
– SLU’s defense ranks 219th nationally in turnover percentage and isn’t disruptive. Georgia’s offense is exceptional – 32nd in the nation – at keeping the turnover rate down. More possessions for Georgia? That seems likely.
2. The Bulldogs do more than just force turnovers; they’re exceptional at converting them into points.
When an opponent turns the ball over against UGA, the Bulldogs flip the TO into points at a rate of 65% on the ensuing possession. But for all of their track-meet speed, Georgia maintains strong discipline offensively. In turnover ratio the Dawgs rank 14th nationally with a +4.6 margin per game. This gets them five or six extra possessions. The Georgia pressure leads to a lot of steals. The Bulldogs rank 57th national in steals percentage (11.2), and the Billikens are No. 270 in preventing steals. One more stat to bring it home: Georgia ranked No. 1 in the SEC in points per possession following a steal (1.45).
3. Saint Louis isn’t reliable at making stops and containing the damage after turning the ball over. Opponents have scored about 61% of the time after snatching a Saint Louis University TO. SLU’s high, sloppy turnover rate has led to an average of just under 14 "extra" points per game scored by the opponents. If it's close Thursday night, turnover damage will sink the Billikens.
4. Georgia loves to run, and the speed can be a devastating momentum changer. The Bulldogs average 20 fast-break points per game, which is No. 1 in D1. When the Dawgs fetch a steal, they turn it into a score, on average, under four seconds later. The Billikens do very well in scoring fast-break points on the offensive end, but the difference is, Georgia’s transition defense is outstanding. UGA ranks in the 96th percentile nationally for fewest points per possession allowed in transition. Basically, when the Dawgs turn it over, their speed enables them to sprint back to cut off the easy basket. Of the two teams, UGA figures to have the advantage in the hunting of turnovers – and reacting to turnovers at both ends of the floor. One more thing to add here: SLU can’t give up too many turnovers on intercepted passes; that’s when UGA swoops in for a sprint-and-score. Hawking interceptions is a deliberate strategy.
5. Robbie Avila? How is he coping with plantar fasciitis, and will he be more capable of logging abundant minutes? The efficiency is still there for the most part, but Avila can sharpen up? In SLU’s four losses down the stretch, Avila made only 41 percent of his shots from the floor, and lost 14 turnovers for an average of 4.3 TO per contest. Though Avila was good at shooting threes, his two-point percentage in the four losses slipped to 44 percent. And Georgia’s shot-blocking prowess could give Avila problems. He must be at his best, or close to it, for SLU to score a mild upset win. And you can count on the athletic, floor-sprinting Bulldogs trying to stress and fatigue on Avila by making him run and defend.
Fun fact that tells us all we need to know about each team’s style: this season Georgia is No. 1 in the nation with an average of 19 dunks per game. Saint Louis averages 0.8 dunks per game, which ranks No. 361 among 364 D1 teams.
So how can Saint Louis knock off Georgia?
A few factors should be especially prominent:
– Overall shooting: SLU ranks 2nd nationally in effective field goal percentage. Georgia ranked 14th in the SEC in effective field goal defense. Shoot them lights out, Billikens, when you get to Buffalo. That's how you win. Have a NIGHT.
– Three-point shooting: Led by deadeye shooter Trey Green, SLU ranks 2nd nationally with a 40.5% success rate on threes. UGA likes to crash inside and deny the rim and swat away shots, and that style can set up some easy three-point target practice for opponents. Georgia ranked 169th overall (11th in the SEC) defending threes. This will be a huge component in the game. If Georgia isn’t doing a tough job of defending threes, then SLU must make it rain with made 3s.
When the Billikens made at least 35% shots from deep in a game this season their record was 24-1. When the Billikens made 34 percent or less from deep in a game, the record was 4-4.
-- Get Georgia chasing: UGA’s forest of big men aren’t used to chasing the other team’s center around the floor. If the Billikens can make that happen, Georgia won’t be comfortable. Given the nature of SLU’s position-free “5-out” offense that sets up at the perimeter and flows from there – playing through Avila at the top of the key – the Billikens can exploit UGA’s overly aggressive, collapsing defense by kicking the ball outside for open jumpers. A halfcourt symphony would be nice. SLU can nullify some of the things Georgia loves to do by weaving an exquisite halfcourt offense with Avila as the playmaker. That could frustrate UGA. We’ll see.
-- The Alex Condon Factor: Wait; doesn't he play for Florida? Yes. But read on. Though not a prolific assist man or three-point threat, the 6-11 Florida center operates as an orchestrator, up top, in the Gators attack. He gets the ball at the key and makes decisions to initiate the offensive play. I bring this up for a reason: this mobile, skilled, and instinctive big man has some Avila-like traits. He sees and reads the game very well and is a smooth facilitator. In Florida's two blow-out victories over UGA this season, Condon made 15 of 20 shots from the field (.750) including 15 of 18 twos. He's also an excellent trailer who gets a lot of easy buckets on the fastbreak, exploiting teams that don't cover him as he's running down the floor. But here's the thing: in Georgia's second game against Florida this season, the Dawgs attacked him up high, disrupting his attempts to make handoffs. And Condon turned the ball over seven times in that game. Avila's awareness could beat Georgia's efforts to set traps, and unlike Condon, Avila is a quarterback who makes brilliant passes. I'm thinking SLU coach Josh Schertz will find ways to increase Avila's impact to a larger extent.
– Offensive rebounding: This is potentially a biggie that could tip the game to SLU. Georgia is ranked 336th nationally in defensive rebounding, which should give SLU a lot of opportunities to sneak in for second-chance points. To put it in practical terms, UGA allowed opponents to pluck offensive rebounds on nearly one-third of their missed shots this season. That's an awful weakness. Scanning some game results, Georgia suffered losses to Ole Miss, Auburn, Tennessee and Texas because of shaky defensive rebounding that set up those teams for multiple scoring chances on the same possession. At one point, in the loss to Texas, the Bulldogs went through a 14-minute stretch without pulling a single defensive rebound. In those four losses, UGA yielded an average of 17.2 points per game on second-chance opportunities. Saint Louis should have many chances to cash in put-back shots at the goal. Texas scored 28 second-chance points to burn Georgia -- which is crazy.
The No. 1 moral of this here story: If SLU shoots poorly, forget about it. Only 44.5% of the Saint Louis points this season came from inside the three-point line, so the Billikens won’t be trying to win this game down low, or in the lane. Not with all of the GA shot blockers standing by. THREE is the magic numba for SLU.
THE WAY I SEE IT
Georgia 86, Saint Louis 81
My sincere hope here is a comically incorrect prediction. I just didn’t like the way SLU looked and played late in the season, Avila may not be at his maximum level of functionality, and Georgia’s turnover-inducing mania will leave the Billikens scrambling and making too many mistakes. SLU has coughed up a double-digit turnover total in 14 of its last 15 games and averaged 13 TOs per game since Jan. 20.
VIEW FROM THE OUTSIDE
Micah Roberts of Sportsline is taking SLU to cover the spread and he likes their chances of winning. "Saint Louis has stumbled a bit, losing four of its last eight games, covering only twice," Roberts wrote. "Saint Louis has to remind themselves that they shot 50.9% from the field as well as 40.1% from 3-point range, which ranks second nationally. They also have to boost their confidence by reminding themselves that they are the No. 1 defense in the nation, holding opponents of 37.9% shooting. They’re an unselfish team with seven players scoring above 7.2 points per game. They need to get back to being who they were in January. That team is a killer inside that needs to show itself. Saint Louis to win."
(I hope Micah is right.)
Thanks for reading …
–Bernie
Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015.
Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach.
Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams.
Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball.
Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STLSportsCentral, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows.
And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.