Happy Friday to you. The Cardinals won a late-night tension test Thursday, nudging the Padres 2-1 in a game that turned into a good bed-time story for the bird watchers back home.
I wanted to begin with an overview.
Let’s go to the forensics …
The neighborhood watch: The 22-15 Cardinals are in second place in the NL Central, 3 and ½ games behind the first-place, molten-lava hot Cubs. The Redbirds have won 8 of their last 10 games. Hopefully the boys gorged on the post-game guacamole before sleeping – not dancing – the San Diego night away. Don’t be crawling on them streets with Tom Waits, the bizarre, gravelly voiced troubadour from Chula Vista.
A place with a view: Well, lookie up there, high up on that tree branch? What is that we see? I do believe it is the St. Louis baseball Cardinals, who continue to sustain themselves on worms and wins. They are clinging to a .592 winning percentage that has ‘em tied for No. 6 overall in the majors.
Expected record: by any measure of baseball-metrics sanity, the Cardinals should be 19-19 on the 2026 campaign. But they mock your metrics. They laugh at your preseason expectations. They are in the head-forward position, with a lowered body and crest, and vibrating their wings while gaping at you in a gesture of disgust. These Cardinals are Marmol-ized.
Marmol-ized? What? That word translates to“overachievers.” Since Marmol became manager four-plus seasons ago, the Cardinals have exceeded their metrics-based expected win total by 13 games. That ain’t easy to do. Now this cannot be. I know this because the interwebs tell us that he’s the worst St. Louis baseball manager since Tim Hurst went 39-111 (.260) in guiding the 1898 St. Louis Browns.
Just keep truckin’ on: With Thursday’s taking of Petco Park, the Cards have now won five straight games away from Busch Stadium and possess the finest road record (12-5, .706) in MLB.
Naw, I didn’t expect this either: 37 games into the “rebuilding” season, the Cardinals have MLB’s top report card (12-4, .750) against opponents that have a winning record.
Follow the narrow path and look for the wildcard: After winning Thursday’s race by a half-step or so – final score, 2-1 – the Cardinals are 8-2 in games resolved by a one-run margin. And the Redbirds are 15-5 when the final score separates the teams by no more than two runs.
BIRD BYTES
1. Good, tough-minded start by Matthew Liberatore. The Padres made Libby work in the bottom of the first, with six hitters combining for two hits and a walk – to bloop-single their way to a 1-0 lead. But Liberatore handled his final five innings with authority: only 3 of 16 Padres reached, five struck out, and two grounded into double plays. Liberatore also terminated the first-inning threat by picking San Diego’s Xander Bogaerts off first base for the final out. Smooove.
2. Liberatore struck out 28.5 percent of his batters faced; that’s strong. The Padres did not get a runner into scoring position against the lefty over his final five innings. Liberatore has a 2.31 ERA and a 23% strikeout rate over his last two starts. The Padres could not handle Liberatore’s curve or slider during this matchup; San Diego batters went 0 for 7 with six strikeouts against the two pitch types. Libby and three relievers combined to strike out 30 percent of the Padres who made a plate appearance in this one; that was the second-highest punch-out rate by St. Louis hurlers in a game this season. On April 26, Michael McGreevy and three relievers teamed to strike out 12 Mariners in 34 plate appearances for a wipeout rate of 35.3%
3. As The Rotation Turns: In their last 11 games, STL starting pitchers have finessed their way to a 3.16 ERA and have limited the opposition to five homers in 63 innings. If we take it back to April 14, the Cards’ rotation has a 3.95 ERA which ranks 12th in the majors over that time.
4. Bullish on the bullpen? Well, there isn’t one complaint to peep about over the performance by Cards relievers George Soriano (7th), JoJo Romero (8th) and closer Riley O’Brien (9th) in protecting a one-run lead over the final three innings. The Redbird relievers faced nine batters, gave up one hit, and struck out three. The hit was an infield single off Soriano by Fernando Tatis Jr. to open the 7th but Fernando was eliminated by Cards catcher Pedro Pages on a failed sprint to steal second base.
5. Pages has dismissed 32 percent of the thieves who tried to take a bag from him this season. That formidable caught-stealing rate is about 10 percent better than the league average. The only catchers in the majors who have a higher Fielding Run Value than Pages this season are Patrick Bailey (Giants) and Dillon Dingler (Tigers.) FanGraphs’ defensive rating for catchers puts Pages 5th among 52 big-league catchers that have caught at least 100 innings this season. Pages is in the 92nd percentile in the Statcast caught stealing above average metric; that means he’s better than 92 percent of major-league catchers at throwing out runners.
6. Marmol is doing it again: even though he’s dealing with some unsettling bullpen turbulence again this season, Marmol and pitching coach Dusty Blake are sorting things in a way that will lead to improvement. They had to do the same early last season and got it done. Moving Soriano into the seventh-inning role – with some two-inning appearances also in the plan mix – is a strong step. Not that the Cardinals can lean on Soriano, Romero and O’Brien to line up for the final three innings every time the Cardinals have a lead. But Marmol and Blake have been cultivating Gordon Graceffo for a more important role as well.
7. Of all of the peoples who blast Marmol just to blast him – it has little if anything to do with his managing – the ones that make me laugh the most are the experts who insist that Oli is clueless about bullpen management. Yeah he sucks at running a bullpen.
That’s why, since the start of the 2024 season the Cardinals have been among the top MLBs bullpen at protecting leads over the final three innings.
Again since the beginning of ‘24:
+ When the Cardinals lead through six innings: 132-19 record, .874, ranks 12th overall.
+ When the Cards lead through seven innings: 145-9 record, .942, ranks 3rd overall.
+ When the Marmol’s team leads through eight innings: 158-5 record, .969, ranks 4th overall.
This season the Cardinals are 17-1 when they lead through six innings (ranks 5th), 18-1 when leading through seven innings (6th), is 17-0 when leading through eight (1st), and is 5-0 in extra innings (1st.)
This season the Cardinals’ hitters have played a role in preserving late leads by showing some late life offensively for added protection. But Marmol is very good at deploying the right personnel to lock down those high-leverage outs when the Cardinals have a slight edge on the scoreboard.
8. The bullpen management also applies to the team’s fantastic record in launching comebacks. Since the start of the 2025 season the Cardinals have 40 comeback victories; the only MLB team with more over that time are the Dodgers with 61.
9. Bullpen management is also relevant to the STL’s excellent record in one-run games since the beginning of 2024. That record is 63-45 for an outstanding .583 winning percentage. How good is that? Well, the Cardinals have the best win percentage by an MLB team since opening day of 2024.
10. Finally, here’s a “before” and “after” look at Jordan Walker, comparing his first 36 games last season to his first 36 games in 2026. The 2025 numbers will be on your left; the ‘26 digits will be on the right.
Batting average: .184 … .309
On-base percentage: .254 … .383
Slugging percentage: .248 … .588
On-base+slug OPS: .502 … .971
wRC+: 45 … 171
Homers: 2 … 10
RBIs: 13 … 27
Walk rate: … 7.2% … 10.4%
Strikeout rate: 31.2% … 27.9%
Going back to the wRC+ for a few seconds …
In 2025, Walker was 55 percent below league average offensively through his first 36 games.
In 2026, Walker is 71 percent above league average offensively through his first 36 games.
That’s an improvement of 116 percent from one year (‘25) to the next (‘26.)
Whoa!
I guess Jordan Walker is doing better?
Thanks for reading and I hope you have a wonderful weekend …
–Bernie
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Bernie was inducted into the Missouri Sports Hall of Fame in 2023. During a St. Louis sports-media career that goes back to 1985, he’s won multiple national awards for column writing and sports-talk hosting – and was the lead sports columnist at the Post-Dispatch from 1989 through 2015. Before that Bernie spent a year at the Dallas Morning News, covering the Dallas Cowboys during Tom Landry’s final season (1988) plus the sale of the team to Jerry Jones and the hiring of Jimmy Johnson as coach. Bernie has covered several Baseball Hall of Fame managers during his media career including Tony La Russa, Whitey Herzog, Earl Weaver, Joe Torre and (as an interim) Red Schoendienst. In his career as a beatwriter and columnist, Bernie covered Pro Football Hall of Fame coaches Joe Gibbs, Tom Landry, Jimmy Johnson and Dick Vermeil on a daily basis.
Bernie has covered and written about many great St. Louis sports team athletes including Albert Pujols, Kurt Warner, Brett Hull, Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, Jim Edmonds, Marshall Faulk, Scott Rolen, Mark McGwire, Orlando Pace, Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Al MacInnis, Brian Sutter, Bernie Federko, Chris Pronger, Dan Dierdorf, Jackie Smith and Aeneas Williams. Bernie covered every baseball Cardinals’ postseason game from 1996 through 2014 and was there to chronicle teams that won four NL pennants and two World Series. He provided extensive coverage on the “Greatest Show” St. Louis Rams and has written extensively on the St. Louis Blues, Saint Louis U, and Mizzou football and basketball. Bernie was/is a longtime voter for the Baseball Hall of Fame, Pro Football Hall of Fame, Heisman Trophy and the St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Fame.
You can access his columns, videos and the podcast version of the videos here on STL Sports Central, catch him regularly on KMOX (AM or FM) as part of the Gashouse Gang, Sports Rush Hour, Sports Open Line or Sports On a Sunday Morning shows. And you can catch weekly “reunion” segments here at STL Sports Central featuring Bernie and his longtime friend Randy Karraker.